| 气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王文权,张玉霄.气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测[J].世界竹藤通讯,2021,19(6):21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文权 张玉霄 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西南林业大学林学院 昆明 650224;2. 西南林业大学云南生物多样性研究院 昆明 650224 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（31760049）；云南省高层次人才培养支持计划（YNWR-QNBJ-2019-148）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。
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| 关 键 词： | 流苏香竹 最大熵模型(MaxEnt) 潜在分布区 气候变化 云南 |
Predicting the Potential Distribution Area of Chimonocalamus fimbriatus under Different Climate Change Scenarios |
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| Wang Wenquan,Zhang Yuxiao.Predicting the Potential Distribution Area of Chimonocalamus fimbriatus under Different Climate Change Scenarios[J].World Bamboo and Rattan,2021,19(6):21. |
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| Authors: | Wang Wenquan Zhang Yuxiao |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China;2. Yunnan Academy of Biodiversity, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China |
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| Abstract: | Chimonocalamus fimbriatus is a rare bamboo species endemic to southwestern Yunnan. Based on its geographical distribution information obtained from the field investigation and the 19 bioclimatic variables, the paper predicts the potential distribution area under current and future climate change scenarios using the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) and the ArcGIS. The results show that the current high and medium suitable areas for C. fimbriatus are mainly located in Dehong prefecture, Baoshan city and Lincang city, and the low suitable areas are sporadically scattered in Yunnan except Diqing prefecture, Lijiang city and Zhaotong city. In 2050s and 2070s, the high suitable area would shrink under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the high suitable area would account for 12.51% (2050s) and 18.63% (2070s) of the current suitable area, respectively. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the medium and low suitable areas would expand conspicuously (2050s) or slightly (2070s), whereas under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, those areas would shrink extremely. Both the present and the potential distribution area of C. fimbriatus are characterized with patch distribution, which is possibly related to the complex topography and landscape in Yunnan. The key climatic variables affecting the distribution of C. fimbriatus include precipitation in the wettest month, max temperature in the warmest month, precipitation in the driest season, and mean diurnal range. C. fimbriatus is sensitive to the climate change. It is suggested that the in situ conservation complemented with the ex situ conservation should be adopted for C. fimbriatus in according to its wild distribution, and this species could also be introduced into its potential suitable area. |
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| Keywords: | Chimonocalamus fimbriatus MaxEnt potential distribution area climate change Yunnan province |
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