| 考虑资料缺失的小型水库影响的洪水预报方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨钊华,王军,梁忠民,李彬权,付宇鹏.考虑资料缺失的小型水库影响的洪水预报方法研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2021(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨钊华 王军 梁忠民 李彬权 付宇鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402709);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(41730750)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 流域中修建的大量小型水库会改变洪水的自然特性,而小型水库资料往往缺失或信息不全,使得在洪水预报中难以考虑其调蓄作用,给洪水预报带来困难。利用遥感RS、地理信息系统GIS和支持向量回归机SVR算法,构建地形地貌参数-水库库容关系模型,推算水库资料缺失地区的小型水库库容信息;在定量概化小型水库对洪水拦蓄影响的基础上,建立了新安江-水库模型。以淮河上游北庙集流域为对象进行应用研究,结果表明:(1)小型水库总库容与地形地貌特征有较强的相关关系,建立的地形地貌参数-水库库容模型具有较高精度,可用于资料缺失的小型水库的库容推算;(2)加入水库拦蓄模块后,新安江模型的洪水预报精度得到一定提高。研究成果可供受小型水利工程影响地区的实时洪水预报参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水预报 小型水库影响 水库资料缺失 地形地貌参数 新安江-水库模型 |
Research on Flood Forecasting Method Considering the Influence of Small Reservoir with Missing Data |
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| YANG Zhao-hua,WANG Jun,LIANG Zhong-min,LI Bin-quan,FU Yu-peng.Research on Flood Forecasting Method Considering the Influence of Small Reservoir with Missing Data[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2021(3). |
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| Authors: | YANG Zhao-hua WANG Jun LIANG Zhong-min LI Bin-quan FU Yu-peng |
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| Institution: | (College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | A large number of small reservoirs built in the basin may change the natural characteristics of the flood,and the data of small reservoirs are often missing or incomplete,which makes it difficult to consider the regulation and storage function in flood forecasting,and brings difficulties to flood forecasting.Based on RS,GIS and SVR algorithm,the relationship model of topography and geomorphology parameters and reservoir capacity is constructed to calculate the small reservoir capacity information in the area where the reservoir data is missing.Based on the quantitative generalization of the impact of small reservoirs on flood detention,the XAJ-reservoir(XAJ-R)model is established.The results show that:①there is a strong correlation between the total storage capacity of small reservoirs and the characteristics of topography and geomorphology,and the established model of topography and geomorphology parameters and reservoir storage capacity has a high accuracy,which can be used to calculate the storage capacity of small reservoirs with missing data.②After adding the reservoir retention module,the flood prediction accuracy of XAJ model is improved to a certain extent.The research findings can be used as a reference for real-time flood prediction in the area affected by small-scale water conservancy projects. |
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| Keywords: | flood forecast small reservoir impact lack of reservoir data topography and geomorphology parameters XAJ-R model |
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