| 基于Copula 函数的边坡可靠度高效分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 方旭,冯晓波.基于Copula 函数的边坡可靠度高效分析方法[J].中国农村水利水电,2021(4):201-206,211. |
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| 作者姓名： | 方旭 冯晓波 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;武汉大学水工岩石力学教育部重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(51879204)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 将Copula函数与高效蒙特卡洛方法结合,提出了含相关随机变量的边坡可靠度高效分析方法。以两个岩质边坡稳定性问题为例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法相比于直接蒙特卡洛方法在保证边坡失效概率的准确性的同时计算效率更高。Copula函数可以构造出具有不同相关结构的岩土体参数的联合概率分布,与高效蒙特卡洛方法(即蒙特卡洛重要抽样方法和子集模拟)结合能高效地处理含多种相关随机变量的边坡可靠度计算问题,相比于现行的Nataf变换方法结果更能体现岩土边坡真实稳定性。此外,该方法也能高效地计算含有复杂的隐式功能函数的边坡可靠度,研究成果拓展了高效蒙特卡洛方法在边坡可靠度分析中的应用。
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| 关 键 词： | COPULA函数 边坡可靠度 相关随机变量 高效蒙特卡洛方法 |
Efficient Ways to Analyze Slope Reliability Based on Copula Function |
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| FANG Xu,FENG Xiao-Bo.Efficient Ways to Analyze Slope Reliability Based on Copula Function[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2021(4):201-206,211. |
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| Authors: | FANG Xu FENG Xiao-Bo |
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| Institution: | (State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Key Laboratory of Rock Mechanics in Hydraulic Structural Engineerin,Ministry of Education,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the copula function is combined with efficient Monte Carlo Method,methods which can efficiently analyze the slope reliability problem involving correlated random variables are proposed.Two rock slope stabilities are studied to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods as examples.The results show that these methods are more efficient than the direct Monte Carlo Method and the accuracy of the results is guaranteed.Based on the copula function which can be used to construct the joint distribution of different related structural parameters of rock and soil mass,efficient Monte Carlo Method(Monte Carlo important sampling method and subset simulation)can efficiently deal with the slope reliability problem with correlated random variables.Comparing with the existing Nataf transformation method,the results can reflect real geotechnical slope stability more.In addition,the methods can efficiently analyze the reliability of slope with complex implicit functions.The results expand the application of Monte Carlo important sampling method and subset simulation in slope reliability analysis. |
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| Keywords: | copula function slope stability correlation random variables efficient Monte Carlo Method |
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