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农作物病虫发生级别与自然危害损失率关系辨析
引用本文:李春广,刘梦泽,汤金仪,姜玉英,赵中华,沈佐锐,程登发.农作物病虫发生级别与自然危害损失率关系辨析[J].植物保护,2015,41(5):13-16.
作者姓名:李春广  刘梦泽  汤金仪  姜玉英  赵中华  沈佐锐  程登发
作者单位:1. 全国农业技术推广服务中心, 北京 100125; 2. 湖北省孝感市植保站, 孝感 432000; 3. 中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院, 北京 100193; 4. 中国农业科学院植物保护研究所, 北京 100193
基金项目:公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903004)
摘    要:在全国范围内征集的农作物病虫5级自然损失率大多在15%~45%之间,客观证实了不同病虫发生级别相同时自然危害损失率之间存在差异。一方面病虫发生量与其自然危害损失率之间理论上为逻辑斯蒂曲线关系,另一方面病虫发生级别的判定存在着人为的经验感知比较,加之病虫5级自然损失率一般低于50%,为统一简化关系且便于计算,我们将病虫1~5级相邻发生级别间自然危害损失率近似确定为倍率指数曲线关系。

关 键 词:病虫发生级别    5级自然损失率    逻辑斯蒂曲线    倍率指数曲线
收稿时间:2014/9/24 0:00:00
修稿时间:2014/12/7 0:00:00

Analyzing the relationships between crop diseases and pests occurrence level and natural loss rate
Li Chunguang,Liu Mengze,Tang Jinyi,Jiang Yuying,Zhao Zhonghu,Shen Zuorui,Cheng Dengfa.Analyzing the relationships between crop diseases and pests occurrence level and natural loss rate[J].Plant Protection,2015,41(5):13-16.
Authors:Li Chunguang  Liu Mengze  Tang Jinyi  Jiang Yuying  Zhao Zhonghu  Shen Zuorui  Cheng Dengfa
Institution:1. National Agro Technical Extension and Service Centre, Beijing 100125, China; 2. Plant Protection Station of Xiaogan City, Hubei Province, Xiaogan 432000, China; 3. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; 4. Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
Abstract:The natural loss rate of crop diseases and pests collected nationwide with occurrence level 5 was mostly between 15%-45%, which objectively confirmed that different diseases and pests at the same occurrence level existed differences between natural loss rates. On one hand, the relationship between the amount of pests and diseases and natural loss rate showed logistic curve theoretically, on the other hand, there is a comparison of human perceptual experience in the determination of diseases and pests occurrence level. What is more, the natural loss rate of pests with occurrence level 5 is generally lower than 50%. For a unified and simplified relationship and easy calculation, we approximately identified the natural loss rate of the pests at adjacent level from 1 to 5 as double rate exponential curve relationship.
Keywords:diseases and pests occurrence level  level 5 natural loss rate  logistic curve  double rate exponential curve
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