Projecting the suitability of global and local habitats for myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) using model consensus |
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| Authors: | H A Narouei-Khandan S P Worner S L H Viljanen A H C van Bruggen E E Jones |
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| Institution: | 1. Bio-Protection Research Centre, Lincoln University, PO Box 85084, New Zealand;2. Department of Pest-management and Conservation, Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Lincoln University, PO Box 85084, New Zealand;3. The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, Private Bag 4704, Christchurch, 8140 New Zealand;4. Department of Plant Pathology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611-0680 USA |
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| Abstract: | Myrtle rust (caused by Austropuccinia psidii) affects more than 500 known host species in the Myrtaceae family. Three different modelling approaches (CLIMEX, MaxEnt and Multi-Model Framework) were used to project the habitat suitability for myrtle rust at both global and local scales. Current data on the global occurrence of myrtle rust were collected from online literature and expert solicitation. Long-term averages of climate data (1960–1990) were sourced from WorldClim and CliMond websites. Recent reports of myrtle rust in New Zealand were used for validation of model outputs but not in model training and testing. The model outputs were combined into a consensus model to identify localities projected to be suitable for myrtle rust according to two or three models (hotspots). In addition to the locations where the pathogen is currently present, all models successfully projected independent occurrence data in New Zealand suitable for establishment of the pathogen. Climate suitability for the pathogen was primarily related to temperature followed by rainfall in MaxEnt and the CLIMEX model. The results confirmed the optimum temperature range of this pathogen in the literature (15–25 °C). Additional analysis of the precipitation variables indicated that excessive rain (more than 2000 mm in warmest quarter of the year) combined with high temperatures (>30 °C) constrain pathogen establishment. The results of the current study can be useful for countries such as New Zealand, China, South Africa and Singapore where the pathogen has not fully spread or established. |
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| Keywords: | Austropuccinia psidii guava rust model consensus myrtle rust species distribution models |
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