| 奶业产业链纵向价格传导的时滞效应与政策启示 |
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| 引用本文： | 林红新,苏贵芳.奶业产业链纵向价格传导的时滞效应与政策启示[J].中国奶牛,2021(2):56-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林红新 苏贵芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南农业大学经济与管理学院;河南省种牛遗传性能测定中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 奶业产业链纵向价格传导受阻,导致奶牛养殖长期处于价值链的低增值环节,甚至出现"行业萎缩"现象。本文对上游奶牛养殖成本向下游乳品加工环节价格传导机制进行理论分析,并基于2008年1-12月份奶牛饲养成本和原料奶价格的月度数据,运用有限分布滞后模型测度价格传导的滞后效应。结果表明:饲养成本向下游传导存在显著的滞后性,饲养成本变化1%,滞后5和6期,分别引起原料奶价格变动0.086%、0.111%。奶业价值链体系自身难以实现价格的无阻滞传导以及形成合理的利益分配机制,政府和行业必须推动原料奶生产提高组织化程度,构建价格预警平台,完善产业链各方利益关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 奶业产业链 价格传导机制 市场势力 有限分布滞后模型 |
The Time Lag Effect and Policy Enlightenment of Vertical Price Transmission in Dairy Industry Chain |
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| LIN Hong-xin,SU Gui-fang.The Time Lag Effect and Policy Enlightenment of Vertical Price Transmission in Dairy Industry Chain[J].China Dairy Cattle,2021(2):56-61. |
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| Authors: | LIN Hong-xin SU Gui-fang |
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| Institution: | (College of Economics and Management,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046;Breeding Cattle Genetic Performance Testing Center,Zhengzhou 450046) |
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| Abstract: | The vertical price transmission of the dairy industry chain is blocked,which determines that dairy farming has been in the low value-added stage of the value chain for a long time,and even the phenomenon of"industrial shrinkage"has occurred.This paper theoretically analyzes the transmission mechanism from upstream dairy farming costs to downstream dairy processing prices.Based on the monthly data on dairy cow feeding costs and raw milk prices from January 2008 to December 2018,a finite distribution lag model was used to measure the hysteresis effect in price transmission.The results show that there is a significant lag in the transmission of feeding costs to the downstream.The feeding cost changes by 1%,lagging 5 and 6 periods,which causes a change in the price of raw milk by 0.086%and 0.111%,respectively.The dairy industry value chain system itself is difficult to achieve unhindered transmission of prices and form a reasonable profit distribution mechanism.The government and industry must promote the organization of raw milk production,build a price warning platform,and improve the interests of all parties in the industry chain. |
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| Keywords: | Dairy industry chain Price transmission mechanism Market power Finite distributed lag model |
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