| 甘肃中部旱农耕作区秸秆饲料供求平衡及畜牧业发展潜力：以定西市安定区为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜月红,陈强强,崔秀娟,吴茜,赵荣芳.甘肃中部旱农耕作区秸秆饲料供求平衡及畜牧业发展潜力：以定西市安定区为例[J].草业科学,2021,38(8):1638-1649. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜月红 陈强强 崔秀娟 吴茜 赵荣芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃农业大学财经学院,甘肃,兰州,730070;甘肃省区域农业与产业组织研究中心,甘肃,兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省软科学专项“供给侧改革视角下草原畜牧业发展路径依赖与路径突破研究”(20CX9ZA100)%甘肃省社科项目“草原生态补偿政策下甘肃省农牧民可持续生计研究–基于可持续生计框架”(19YB127)%甘肃省社科项目“甘肃省脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴统筹衔接路径研究”(20YB058)%甘肃省人文社会科学项目“甘南黄河水源补给区“人–地”耦合与高质量发展路径研究”(20ZZ02) |
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| 摘 要： | 秸秆饲料化利用对于促进“粮改饲”推动草食畜牧业发展，实现藏粮于草解决人畜争地以及构建大食物安全观具有重要的战略意义。本研究运用草谷比法与能量转化理论估算安定区农作物秸秆资源量和秸秆饲料化节粮潜力。在此基础上，设计种植结构调整(A)和秸秆饲料化利用率提升(B)两种情景8种方案，对草食畜牧业发展潜力及经济效益进行估算。结果表明：1) 2000 – 2018年，甘肃省定西市安定区大宗作物小麦(Triticum aestivum)、玉米(Zea mays)、马铃薯(Solanum tuberosum)秸秆资源总量为487.03 × 104 t；草食家畜存栏量为1 132.61 × 104 AUM，秸秆饲料的需求量为744.12 × 104 t，秸秆饲料化量为177.05 × 104 t，秸秆饲料供需缺口巨大。2)小麦、玉米、马铃薯三大作物秸秆节粮潜力分别为28.85 × 104、57.21 × 104、118.17 × 104 t。3)以2018年实际存栏量14.28 × 104 AUM为基准，对比各情景方案组合，Ah + Bh方案下的秸秆载畜潜力高达28.69 × 104 AUM，经济效益达30 211.37 × 104 CNY，为最优方案；最劣方案Al的载畜发展潜力为4.42 × 104 AUM，经济效益为4 655.03 × 104 CNY，较最优方案相差24.27 × 104 AUM，经济效益相差25 556.34 × 104 CNY。总体而言，A、B组合方案下的载畜潜力和经济效益均高于单一方案的潜力，草畜一体化发展不失为旱作农区可推广的有效发展模式。
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| 关 键 词： | 秸秆资源 秸秆饲料化 草谷比 潜力 安定区 资源量估算 情景模拟 |
Balance of supply and demand of straw fodder resources and development potential of animal husbandry in the dry farming area of central Gansu: A case study in Anding District,Dingxi City |
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| DU Yuehong,CHEN Qiangqiang,CUI Xiujuan,WU Xi,ZHAO Rongfang.Balance of supply and demand of straw fodder resources and development potential of animal husbandry in the dry farming area of central Gansu: A case study in Anding District,Dingxi City[J].Pratacultural Science,2021,38(8):1638-1649. |
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| Authors: | DU Yuehong CHEN Qiangqiang CUI Xiujuan WU Xi ZHAO Rongfang |
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| Abstract: | The utilization of straw feed is of strategic importance to promote the development of the grass-fed livestock industry, to store food in grass to reduce competition between humans and animals for land, and to increase food security. In this study, the grass valley ratio and energy conversion theory were used to estimate the amount of crop straw resources and the potential of straw fodder to save food in the settled area. On this basis, two scenarios of planting structure adjustment (A) and straw fodder utilization enhancement (B) were designed with eight scenarios to estimate the development potential and economic benefits of grass-fed livestock farming. From 2000 to 2018, the total amount of straw resources of the bulk crops wheat, corn, and potato in Anding District was 4.870 3 million tons; the stock of grass-fed livestock was 11.326 1 million sheep units, the demand for straw feed was 7.441 2 million tons, and the amount of straw fodder was 1.770 5 million tons. There was a huge gap between the supply and demand of straw feed. Wheat, corn, and potatoes are three major crops and they had a straw food saving potential of 288.5 thousand tons, 572.1 thousand tons, and 1.181 7 million tons, respectively. Using the actual 2018 stock of 142.8 thousand sheep units as a baseline, the combination of scenarios was compared. The straw carrying potential under the Ah + Bh scheme was as high as 286.9 thousand sheep units, with an economic benefit of 302.113 7 million CNY, which was the optimal scheme. The potential for livestock development of the worst option, Al, was 44.2 thousand sheep units, with an economic benefit of 46.550 3 million CNY, a difference of 242.7 million sheep units, and an economic benefit of 255.563 4 million CNY compared to the optimal scheme. Overall, the livestock-carrying potential and economic benefits under the combined A and B scenarios were higher than the potential of a single scenario, and integrated grass–livestock development was an effective development model that could be promoted in dry farming areas. |
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| Keywords: | straw resources straw feed grass valley ratio potential Anding District estimation of crop residue resources scenario simulation |
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