| 广东省人H7N9病例分布与活禽高危因素相关性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄泽颖,李海军.广东省人H7N9病例分布与活禽高危因素相关性研究[J].畜牧与兽医,2021(3):121-127. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄泽颖 李海军 |
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| 作者单位： | 农业农村部食物与营养发展研究所;三亚学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71804078)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 广东省人H7N9亚型禽流感的高危因素(接触活禽与活禽市场暴露)与活禽相关。为评价活禽交易限制、活禽调运限制与活禽H7N9免疫对人H7N9发病的影响,以接触活禽史病例数和活禽市场暴露史病例数的增减为研究视角,基于广东省2013—2018年H7N9亚型禽流感病例,采用Moran指数、K-means算法和Apriori算法等分析病例的空间分布特征、活禽高危因素导致病例的特征以及防控措施与病例数的关系。结果发现:病例的热点区域在珠三角,且向周边扩散,仅2017年的病例具有显著空间相关性。人活禽接触史病例分为3类,以中年、有基础病史、来自珠三角城市以及从事活禽销售为主;而活禽市场暴露史病例可分为4类,主要以男性、中年、无基础病史为主。未启动活禽交易限制和活禽H7N9免疫则分别增加活禽市场暴露史病例的概率是70.90%和71.70%,而启动活禽调运限制减少接触活禽史病例数的概率为70.60%。这表明,三大防控措施对减少因接触活禽与活禽市场暴露的人H7N9病例具有显著相关性。
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| 关 键 词： | 人H7N9亚型禽流感 活禽接触 活禽市场暴露 高危因素 |
Correlation between the distribution of the cases of humans infected with H7N9 and the risk factors of live poultry in Guangdong Province |
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| HUANG Zeying,LI Haijun.Correlation between the distribution of the cases of humans infected with H7N9 and the risk factors of live poultry in Guangdong Province[J].Animal Husbandry & Veterinary Medicine,2021(3):121-127. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Zeying LI Haijun |
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| Institution: | (Institute of Food and Nutrition Development,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China;University of Sanya,Sanya 572000,China) |
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| Abstract: | The high-risk factors of human infection with H7 N9 subtype avian influenza,such as exposure to live poultry and exposure to live poultry markets in Guangdong Province are associated with the live poultry.To evaluate the impacts of measures of live poultry trading restriction,live poultry transport restriction and live poultry H7 N9 immunization on human infection with H7 N9 subtype avian influenza,the number of cases with a history of exposure to live poultry and the number of cases with a history of exposure to live poultry markets were analyzed.Based on the case of human infection with H7 N9 subtype avian influenza occurring in the period from 2013 to 2018 in Guangdong Province,Moran index,K-means algorithm and Apriori algorithm were used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the cases,the characteristics of live poultry’s risk factors leading to the cases and the association patterns between measures of prevention and control and the number of the cases.The results showed that the hot spots of the cases were in the Pearl River Delta area and they spread to the surrounding areas,with only cases in 2017 showing the significant spatial correlation.Human infection with H7 N9 cases with a history of exposure to live poultry were divided into three categories,mainly the patients at middle aged,the ones with basic medical history,the ones from the Pearl River Delta cities who were engaged in live poultry sales,while the cases with a history of exposure to live poultry markets were divided into four categories,mainly the male patients,the middle-aged ones and the ones without basic medical history.The probabilities of no effected measures of live poultry trading restriction and no effected measures of live poultry H7 N9 immunization that increased the cases of exposure to live poultry markets were 70.90%and 71.70%respectively,while the probability of supplemented live poultry transport restriction reducing cases of exposure to live poultry cases was 70.60%.This study suggested that the three measures of prevention from and control of exposure to live poultry and exposure to live poultry markets had a significant correlation with reduction of cases of human infection with H7N9. |
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| Keywords: | human infection with H7N9 subtype avian influenza live poultry contact exposure to live poultry markets high-risk factors |
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