共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 875 毫秒
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人工林生长与收获预测模型的研究 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5
根据森林生长理论 ,分别为人工林未经营林分和经营林分推导、建立了生长与收获预测动态模型。用福建杉木样地数据试验证明所建模型灵活性强、精度高。 相似文献
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充分发挥森林生态效益是当前森林经营管理工作的重点,森林生长模拟系统是森林经营管理的常用工具。介绍了美国的森林生长混合模拟系统FVS-BGC(FVS-Bio-Geochemical Cycles),该系统是由经验生长收获模型(FVS:Forest vegetation simulator)与林分生物地球化学循环过程模型(STAND-BGC:Stand Bio-Geochemi-cal Cycles)组成的混合模拟系统,可以基于生理过程、气候变化等环境条件来模拟单木和林分两个水平在日和年时间尺度上的生长过程;还介绍了该系统的功能、结构、运行流程以及输入输出结果3个方面,并以一块美国火炬松(Loblolly pine)林分为例进行了模拟预测。 相似文献
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《林业科学》2021,57(3)
【目的】比较多源数据对林分动态预测的影响,分析模型参数与预测不确定性的变化规律,从准确性和可靠性角度对模型进行评估,获取改进模型的数据需求,为森林调查中的数据收集策略提供建议。【方法】收集秦岭油松林3期调查(1990、2005和2012年)和4种信息类型(临时样地、固定样地、解析木和多源数据)建模数据,设计一组数据信息要求较低的可变密度全林模型,基于贝叶斯信息动态融合框架,分析传统森林调查数据与生长收获模型的关系。利用MCMC抽样技术获得的参数联合后验分布对森林动态模拟的不确定性进行量化:一方面比较相同类型的多期森林调查数据不断对模型进行训练后,模型在参数与预测中的概率分布变化过程;另一方面比较分别采用4种数据类型对模型预测产生的影响。数据与模型更新循环过程以先验信息和后验信息不断相互转化的方法实现,即前一次拟合得到的参数联合后验分布作为下一期数据加入时的先验。不同数据类型整合根据数据自身抽样和观测误差所设计的独立似然结构实现。为避免粗糙数据或异常值对模型产生的影响,描述误差分布的似然函数采用重尾正态分布。观测误差的异方差特性通过迭代中自动调整似然函数的方差控制。【结果】随着新一期调查数据加入,模型参数的边际或联合分布不断发生变化,但概率分布峰度总是逐渐升高,即参数不确定性逐步下降,从而降低林分预测的不确定性。与基于1990年调查数据的模型相比,经过2005和2012年数据校正后模型在成过熟林阶段的不确定性下降最为明显,同时树高生长极大值的参数也更高。不同数据类型在模型预测中的差异反映出不同调查方法本身的缺陷和优势,解析木数据倾向于在成过熟林阶段预测出更高的树高生长;固定样地和临时样地数据在林分平均高和平均胸径模拟中表现相似,但由于抽样方法和数据量等因素区别,导致其在林分断面积模拟中呈现明显差异。基于循环更新或多源数据的模型呈现出最稳定的预测结果。【结论】在生长收获模型构建中,不同类型森林调查数据会产生不同预测结果,不同数据信息特性也会对预测的不确定性产生规律性影响。以概率分布呈现信息的贝叶斯方法,既可反映模型的精准程度,又能解释数据信息中存在的缺陷。本研究以全林模型更新为例,展示了该方法不断循环、更新、融合的数据-模型逻辑框架,是架构生长收获模型与数据桥梁的有力工具。 相似文献
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森林资源连续清查是以掌握宏观森林资源现状与建立生态综合监测体系为目的，利用固定样地为主进行定期复查森林资源的调查方法。固定样地中各因子的调查，包括森林、林木、林地的数量、质量、结构与分布及动态变化，森林健康状况与生态功能，森林生态系统多样性，土地沙化、石漠化、湿地类型的面积、分布及其动态变化， 相似文献
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为了在我国建立全国性的森林植被生长模拟系统,选择美国的森林植被模拟系统(FVS)作为预测森林植被生长的参照原型。但是,森林植被生长受各种环境因子和其本身生理活动差异的影响,造成生长的极端复杂性,而FVS中也存在大量生长特征量,需对它们进行有选择的研究。本文从众多生长特征量中选择胸径作为基本特征量,以北京西山地区油松、侧柏的调查数据为数据源,对各种生长模型进行研究分析,对FVS中的模型进行利用和修正后,模拟了基本生长模型,经计算验证,该方法形成的生长预测体系是完整有效的。 相似文献
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一、引言大地理区研制分析和更新森林调查样地的现代森林生长预测系统,虽然因其结构而异,但这些系统都包括一系列预测森林生长动态、枯损率、更新和采伐量模型,这些模型不是以单株木就是以林分为基础。这些模 相似文献
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The impact of forest management activities on the ability of forest ecosystems to sequester and store atmospheric carbon is of increasing scientific and social concern. The nature of these impacts varies among forest ecosystems, and spatially and temporally explicit ecosystem models are useful for quantifying the impacts of a number of alternative management regimes for the same forest landscape. The LANDIS-II forest dynamics simulation model is used to quantify changes to the live overstory and coarse woody debris pools under several forest management scenarios in a high-latitude South American forest landscape dominated by two species of southern beech, Nothofagus betuloides and N. pumilio. Both harvest type (clearcutting vs. partial overstory retention) and rotation length (100 years vs. 200 years) were significant predictors of carbon storage in the simulation models. The prompt regeneration of harvest units greatly enhanced carbon storage in clearcutting scenarios. The woody debris pool was particularly sensitive to both harvest type and rotation length, with large decreases noted under short rotation clearcutting. The roles of extended rotations and partial overstory retention are noted for enhancing net carbon storage on the forest landscape. 相似文献
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可持续森林经营理论为中期林业计划和收获调整提供了丰富的模型选择,其不同的方法可应用于各种特定的场合和不同经营类型.本文简要回顾了传统的森林计划方法,一种称为"多林分发展"的概念可以用于任意的经营系统,这个概念把森林看作由一系列林分组成,在每一个林分中可以预先制定多种经营措施的选项,每种选项都可以通过木材或其它产品以及消耗的资源计算出一个目标值.这种简单的概念可以应用到大量的不同森林经营场合,它为森林经营者制定切实可行的森林措施和评价森林经营计划提供方法.在本研究中,以德国北部一片包括21个小班的挪威云杉林班的一个中期计划为例,说明"多林分发展"这一经营系统在实际生产中的应用.每个小班具有不同的初始状态,每个小班预设了若干经营选项,根据小班的初始状态、生长模型为各种选项计算各时期的木材产出.在林班的水平上,经营目标方程包括两个组成部分:净现值和均衡木材收获值.用模拟退火的方法来优化总体目标方程值.优化的总体解决方案在为每个小班选定合适的经营选项的同时,在全林的水平上获得最优的经济和均衡产出组合. 相似文献
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对传统的模拟测算法进行改进,以露水河林业局东升林场森林资源小班数据库为基础,测算了"十二五"期间商品林的合理采伐量,并模拟了在此采伐影响下森林资源动态变化。结果表明:经过30年的采伐,成熟林和过熟林面积之和占商品林的比例由41.62%调整到42.02%,成熟林面积大幅度增加,过熟林面积大幅度减少,森林资源结构得到优化;经过前5年的采伐,商品林蓄积由189.14万m3增为193.29万m3,森林资源消耗量低于生长量;每公顷蓄积由起初的134.85m3增加到137.80 m3;前5年合理年均采伐面积为182.42hm2,年均合理采伐蓄积为3.59万m3,可作为"十二五"期间调整采伐限额的依据。 相似文献
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Emulating natural forest disturbance is an increasingly popular forest management paradigm that is considered a means of achieving forest sustainability. Adopting this goal requires a sound understanding of natural disturbances at scales that correspond to management policies and strategies. In boreal forest landscapes driven by periodic stand-replacing fires this requires knowledge of fire regime characteristics, especially their spatial and temporal variability as well as stochasticity. The major goal of this study was to demonstrate the utility of fire regime simulation modeling to explore the variability of fire regime characteristics, with respect to formulating and assessing forest management strategies. We conducted a modeling experiment in a boreal forest landscape of northwestern Ontario, Canada, to examine its long-term fire regime in relation to forest policies on harvest size distribution. We used BFOLDS, a spatially explicit fire regime model that simulates individual fire events mechanistically in response to fire weather, fuel patterns, and terrain. The fire regimes in four large eco-regions were modeled for a 200-year period under three fire-weather (cold, normal, and warm) scenarios, with replications. We found that fire size distribution in all eco-regions followed power law under all weather scenarios, but their slopes and intercepts varied among eco-regions and fire weather scenarios. Warming fire weather increased burn rates and fire numbers in all eco-regions, albeit to different degrees. Overall, the variability among eco-regions was higher than the variability among fire weather scenarios, and among replicates. Comparisons of simulated fire size classes with those from an 86-year long fire history showed that empirical data cannot capture the variability that could be revealed by simulation modeling. We also show that fire size distribution is spatially heterogeneous within eco-regions, and provide several suggestions for forest policy directions with respect to forest harvest size distributions and harvest rates, based on the variability of fire regime characteristics. An assessment of present forest policies of emulating natural disturbances that guide forest harvest sizes showed that these are incongruent with simulated fire size distributions under all scenarios with one exception. Overall, this study illustrates the value of scenario simulation modeling to explore and quantify the variability of forest fire regime, for use in forest policies and strategies that attempt to emulate natural disturbance. 相似文献
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在森林经营管理中,往往需要精确预测到未来林分的生长和收获状态,所以对植被仿真系统的研究成为热点。FVS是一套国外较先进的植被仿真系统,但由于FVS系统庞大,设计体系也十分复杂,经过对FVS仔细分析、研究和系统跟踪,发现对模型修改替换极其复杂,不适于本地化的应用。本文基于FVS设计理念和其主流程重构了一套完整的本地化的仿真框架,提供模型接口实现了模型的修改替换。最后选择了北京地区油松作为典型树种,替换了部分模型,利用试验调查数据验证了该框架的完整性和有效性。 相似文献
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Olaf Schwab Thomas Maness Gary Bull Clive Welham Brad Seely Juan Blanco 《Forest Policy and Economics》2011,13(1):61-68
Assessing the impacts of cumulative, non-lethal damages to forests poses a particular challenge to forest management planning since cumulative merchantable volume losses are not known until the time of harvest. This paper introduces a model that scales stand-level processes to their large-scale implications by combining elements of growth and yield modeling, insect infestation modeling, and large-scale spatial harvest simulation. The model is described and tested using the proposed large-scale introduction of weevil-resistant spruce in British Columbia, Canada as a case study. While spruce weevil damages were found to be significant, only a relatively small percentage of losses can be avoided by planting resistant stock. The model introduced in this paper can serve as an important decision support tool for policy makers and researchers in assessing the large-scale effects of proposed policy and management interventions. 相似文献
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We used a goal programming technique to determine the optimal harvest volume for the Iranian Caspian forest. We collected data including volume, growth, wood price at forest roadside, and variable harvesting costs. The allometric method was used to quantify seques- trated carbon. Regression analysis was used to derive growth models. Expected mean price was estimated using wood price and variable harvesting costs. Questionnaire was used to determine the constraints and the equation coefficients of the goal programming model. The optimal volume was determined using the goal programming method according to multipurpose forest management. LINGO software was used for analysis. Results indicated that the optimum volumes of species were 250.25 m3.ha-1 for beech, 59 m3.ha-1 for hornbeam, 73 m3.ha-1 for oak, 41 m3.ha-1 for alder, and 32 m3.ha-1 for other species. The total optimum volume is 455.25 m3.ha-1. 相似文献