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1.
山西忻州地区植物物候与气候变化特征分析 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
摘要：本文利用了忻州市、五台县的气象和物候资料,并运用距平分析法、回归分析法、M-K突变分析法,分析其特征。结果显示,1）忻州、五台两个农业气象站点,年平均气温冷暖交替变化,年降水量逐年减小。2）两个农业气象站的植物,春季物候期均呈提前趋势。秋季物候期表现不一致,忻州市秋季物候期的平均倾向率为1.29d/a,整体趋势表现为推迟;五台县的秋季物候期,因紫丁香提前趋势相对较大,故总体呈提前趋势。3）植物物候期与气温变化的相关性较大,而年降水量对其变化的影响较为微弱。从植物物候期突变时间可看出,其与气温、降水突变时间同步或紧随其后,且对气温的小幅变化反应敏感。 相似文献
2.
利用1988—2020年门源国家基本气象站红柳物候和气温资料,通过相关分析等方法研究红柳叶春、秋季物候期（芽开放期、展叶期、开花期、叶变色期、落叶期）的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。分析发现：（1）春季物候期呈现提前趋势,开花期提前的趋势最为明显,秋季物候期表现出推迟的趋势。（2）门源红柳平均生长季168天,生长季随时间表现为极显著的延长趋势,变化速率为13 d/10 a。（3）1988—2020年门源县年、季平均气温均呈升高趋势,与全球变暖一致,年平均气温变化的气候倾向率为0.54℃/10 a,32年上升了约1.7℃。（4）红柳春季物候期对气温变化很敏感,气温升高,物候期就提前。（5）1988—2020年期间门源年平均气温、红柳物候期均未发生突变。研究结果表明门源红柳对气候变化响应比较敏感,因此,在祁连山生态脆弱区选用红柳对气候变化响应进行研究,对生态环境监测、治理有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
3.
为合理的开发和利用青海省东部黄河谷地热量资源,选取黄河谷地4个气象站近55年(1961—2015年)逐日平均气温资料,采用气候倾向率、滑动平均法和累积距平法等统计方法,对黄河谷地≥10℃初日、终日、持续日数及积温的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)黄河谷地≥10℃积温初日、终日、积温和初终间持续日数等地区分布不一致,地区差异较大;(2)近55年黄河谷地≥10℃积温总体上呈增加趋势,各地区变化幅度不一致;(3)黄河谷地≥10℃积温初日普遍提前、终日以延后为主,终日的延后趋势比初日提前的趋势显著。黄河谷地≥10℃持续日数呈逐年增加趋势;(4)黄河谷地年平均气温与≥10℃积温、持续日数、终日均呈极显著相关(P0.01),但关联程度有所不同。 相似文献
4.
为了给贵南地区合理利用气候资源及农业生产布局提供科学依据,笔者利用青海省贵南县气象局观测的1961—2017年逐日平均气温资料,使用线性趋势分析、累积距平、t检验法等方法,分析贵南县1961—2017年日平均气温稳定通过10 ℃的初日、终日、持续日数及同时期积温的变化特征。结果表明：1961—2017年贵南县气温稳定通过10 ℃的初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数延长、积温增加的现象,其倾向率分别为3.2 d.10a-1、1.1 d.10a-1、4.8 d.10a-1和65.6 (℃.d).10a-1。气温稳定通过10℃的初日在1994年发生提前突变、终日在1988年发生推迟突变;持续日数和积温均在1993年发生了由少到多的突变。 相似文献
5.
利用1960—2017年石羊河流域5个气象站逐日平均气温资料,计算各地年负积温,并运用线性趋势系数法、方差分析周期法、累计距平和信噪比法以及相关系数法,分析了石羊河流域负积温的时空分布特征及负积温与气温和冻土的关系。结果表明：受海拔高度、地形地貌、植被覆盖和天气系统的影响,石羊河流域负积温具有明显地域特征,负积温平均和极值为绿洲平原区高于荒漠区,荒漠区高于山区。负积温正常年份最多,概率在60%以上,依次向两端迅速递减。年、年代负积温总体呈升高趋势,古浪升高趋势最明显。年负积温的时间序列存在7~9年的准周期变化,古浪负积温在1986年发生了气候突变,其他各地没有发生气候突变。各地负积温初日、终日、负积温期有一定的差异,最早负积温初日(1972-9-2)和最迟负积温终日(1969-6-9)均出现在天祝,负积温期最长258天（1972年）在天祝,最短100天（2001年）在民勤。石羊河流域年负积温与年气温呈极显著正相关,负积温的升高与年气温上升具有较好的同步性。石羊河流域冻土的变化对负积温的响应敏感,负积温每升高100℃,冻土日数减少约6.2天,平均冻土深度减小约4.5 cm,最大冻土深度减小约6.9 cm。 相似文献
6.
临汾市0℃界限温度气候特征变化分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
在气候变暖背景下,研究临汾市0℃界限温度的变化特征,以期为农业生产提供科学依据。利用临汾市17个地面气象站1981—2014年逐日气温资料,采用线性倾向估计法、滑动平均法、M-K法及距平,对临汾市日平均气温稳定通过0℃的初日、终日、持续日数及积温的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明：临汾市日平均气温≥0℃初日提前,终日延迟,持续天数呈增加趋势,增长速率为3.9天/10年,初日的提前程度大于终日的延迟程度,临汾市≥0℃的活动积温总体呈增加趋势,增长速率为115.4℃/10年,1993年为突变增长年,2000年之后上升趋势显著性增强;从地域分布看,中部平川地区出现≥0℃初日最早,结束最晚,持续期最长,≥0℃的活动积温最充足,而西山出现≥0℃初日最晚,结束最早,持续期最短,≥0℃的活动积温最少,东山介于平川和西山之间。对于气候变暖给农业生产带来的影响必须进行综合深入的研究。 相似文献
7.
在气候变暖背景下,分析高寒地区0 ℃界限温度变化特征,以期为合理开发农牧业气候资源。利用青海省高寒地区贵南县气象局观测的1961—2017年逐日平均气温资料,采用滑动平均法、线性倾向估计、M-K突变分析等方法,对高寒地区贵南县≥0 ℃初日、终日、持续日数及同时期积温变化特征进行分析。结果表明：近57年高寒地区贵南县气温稳定通过0℃的初日呈不显著的提前趋势,终日呈不显著的后延趋势；持续日数以1.48 d.10a-1的气候倾向率呈现显著增多趋势；≥0 ℃的积温以每10年30.2 ℃.d的气候倾向率呈现极显著的升高趋势。气温稳定通过0℃的初日、终日未发生突变；持续日数在1985年发生了由少到多的突变；积温在1994年发生由少到多突变。 相似文献
8.
为研究气候变暖背景下热量资源变化对浙江甘蓝型冬油菜的影响,利用国家一级农业气象试验站浙江龙游站2000—2020年甘蓝型冬油菜生育期、产量及生长季内逐日气象资料,采用一元线性回归方程、Pearson相关系数、5 d滑动平均、3 a滑动平均等统计方法,分析多时空、多要素热量资源对浙江甘蓝型冬油菜生育期及产量的影响。结果表明,20 a来浙江省龙游县秋、冬、春三季平均气温呈明显上升趋势,其中冬季年际分布差异最大,并于2020年达到峰值。稳定通过10℃界限温度的初、终日表现均为提前,且持续日数呈显著性增加趋势,但最长、最短日在缩短;寒冷日数呈减少趋势,高温日数有所增加。20 a油菜现蕾期提前,其他生育期推迟,推迟最明显的为绿熟期,冬季现蕾期提前主要受1、2月气温影响。全生育期近年有所增加,成熟期明显提前,≥10℃活动积温增加。油菜实际产量和趋势产量均呈增加趋势,气候产量也呈增加趋势,但年际间波动较大。10月下旬—11月下旬（五真叶至成活期）气温呈升高趋势,且10月下旬平均气温与气候产量呈显著性正相关,有利于越冬前油菜苗稳健生长,促进子叶生长,形成壮苗。油菜越冬期内气温偏低、入春后气温偏高是影响... 相似文献
9.
晚霜冻变化对甘肃平凉苹果冻害的影响研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
利用陇东平凉7个气象观测站1971—2010年历年逐日地面最低温度、春季气温、≥10℃活动积温资料及1987—2013年在平凉崆峒区所设苹果观测点物候观测资料,分析了陇东平凉“金果”春季物候期对春季气温和晚霜冻的响应特征。结果表明：研究区晚霜冻结束日和晚霜冻天数存在有明显的地域差异,静宁、庄浪、华亭晚霜冻结束最晚,晚霜冻天数最多,其次是崆峒、泾川、灵台,结束最早的是崇信,晚霜冻天数也最少;晚霜冻结束日期提前的气候趋势明显,40a来提前了13.4d,特别是90年代后期开始,晚霜冻结束日期显著提前,个别年份晚霜冻结束日期呈现阶段性推迟的特征;在全球气候变暖的背景下,陇东平凉自1971年以来,春季平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温均呈现出明显的线性上升趋势,气温稳定通过≥10 ℃的积温增加,受此影响,苹果叶芽开放、展叶、开花等成熟前的发育期提前10～13 d,花芽的提早开放增加了苹果树春季开花受冻的危险,特别是个别年份晚霜冻日期明显推迟及过程持续日数的增加造成对苹果冻害影响的加重。 相似文献
10.
安徽省一季稻生长季热量资源变化特征及其对产量的影响 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
为进一步了解安徽省一季稻生长季热量资源变化特征及其对产量的影响,利用安徽省一季稻主产区45个气象观测站1961—2010年逐日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温气象数据,分析安徽省一季稻沿淮、江淮、沿江3个主产区生长季平均气温、≥10℃积温、气温日较差、高温热害等气候变化特征,并分析其变化对一季稻产量的影响。结果表明：近50年,安徽省一季稻3个主产区生长季平均温度、≥10℃积温均呈明显增加趋势;沿淮地区气温日较差、高温热害日数呈明显减少趋势,江淮、沿江地区气温日较差、高温热害日数无明显变化规律;平均气温、气温日较差、高温热害对一季稻气象产量均为副作用,≥10℃积温的增加有利于产量的提高。 相似文献
11.
气温对安徽省刺槐物候的影响 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
为了评估气温变化对安徽省木本植物的可能影响,根据安徽省宣城、合肥、滁州、凤阳、宿州5个台站1992—2008年的物候和气象资料,运用一元线性回归法和相关分析法分析安徽省近17年来刺槐的物候变化特征及其对气温变化的响应。结果表明,近17年来,安徽省的刺槐的春季物候期明显提前,秋季物候期明显推迟,从而导致整个生长季延长。温度对物候期变化的影响显著：前一年秋季（9—11月）在春季物候期受温度影响的关键时段气温升高,可导致春季物候期提前0.4~3.1 d/℃,平均提前1.5 d/℃;而在4—7月秋季物候受温度影响的关键时段平均气温升高,可导致秋季物候期推迟4.4~4.6 d/℃,平均推迟4.5 d/℃。 相似文献
12.
Crop models have been widely used in simulating and predicting changes in rice phenology in the major rice production regions of China, however the uncertainties in simulating crop phenology at a large scale and from different models were rarely investigated. In the present study, five rice phenological models/modules (i.e., CERES-Rice, ORYZA2000, RCM, Beta Model, SIMRIW) were firstly calibrated and validated based on a large number of rice phenological observations across China during 1981–2009. The inner workings of the models, as well as the simulated phenological response to climate change/variability, were compared to determine if the models adequately handled climatic changes and climatic variability. Results showed these models simulated rice phenological development over a large area fairly well after calibration, although the relative performance of the models varied in different regions. The simulated changes in rice phenology were generally consistent when temperatures were below the optimum; however varied largely when temperatures were above the optimum. The simulated rice growing season under future climate scenarios was shortened by about 0.45–5.78 days; but in northeastern China, increased temperature variability may prolong the growing season of rice. We concluded more modeling and experimental studies should be conducted to accelerate understanding of rice phenology development under extreme temperatures. 相似文献
13.
Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab,Pakistan 
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下载免费PDF全文 S. Ahmad G. Abbas Z. Fatima R. J. Khan M. A. Anjum M. Ahmed M. A. Khan C. H. Porter G. Hoogenboom 《Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science》2017,203(5):442-452
Yield is influenced by the length of the growing season, which is affected by weather conditions and management practices of a crop, including sowing dates and shifting of cultivars. It is necessary to understand the effects of agronomic management practices and weather variables on phenological stages and crop phases in order to develop strategies for adaptation of agricultural systems to changes in climatic conditions. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of warming trends on phenology of canola from 1980 to 2014 for central and southern Punjab, Pakistan. Sowing, emergence, anthesis and physiological maturity dates were delayed by an average of 6.02, 3.14, 3.31 and 1.89 days per decade, respectively. The duration of sowing to anthesis, sowing to physiological maturity and anthesis to physiological maturity phases decreased an average 2.71, 4.13 and 1.42 days per decade, respectively, for all 10 locations that were analysed in this study. The sowing, emergence, anthesis and physiological maturity dates were positively correlated with an increase in temperature by an average 2.71, 1.41, 1.49 and 0.85 days per °C, respectively. However, the phenological phases such as sowing to anthesis, anthesis to maturity and sowing to maturity were negatively correlated with an increase in temperature by an average of 1.22, 0.64 and 1.86 days per °C, respectively, for all 10 locations. Applying a process‐based CSM‐CROPGRO‐Canola model using a standard cultivar (field tested) for all locations and years indicated that the simulated phenological stages occurred earlier due to the warming trend compared to the observed phenological stages. One‐quarter of the negative effects of this thermal trend was compensated by growing new cultivars that had higher thermal time requirements. Therefore, new canola genotypes with a higher number of growing degree day requirement and high temperature tolerance should be a priority for evolving new cultivars. 相似文献
14.
Sabine Stuerz Suchit P. Shrestha Marc Schmierer Duy H. Vu Julia Hartmann Abdoulaye Sow Ando Razafindrazaka Bayuh Belay Abera Boshuwenda Andre Chuma Folkard Asch 《Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science》2020,206(4):466-477
Accurate modelling of plant development is the basis for any assessment of climate change impact on crop yields. Most rice models simulate development (phenology) based on temperature and photoperiod, but often the reliability of these models is reduced beyond the environment they were calibrated for. In our study, we tested the effects of relative air humidity and solar radiation on leaf appearance rate in greenhouse experiments and analysed data sets from field studies conducted in two extremely different rice-growing environments in Nepal and Senegal. We also analysed environmental effects on duration to flowering of one popular IRRI material (IR64) for eight different sites covering the entire temperature range where rice is widely cultivated. Both low relative air humidity and low solar radiation significantly decreased leaf appearance rate. Mean air temperature explained 81% of the variation in duration to flowering across sites, which was furthermore significantly influenced by relative air humidity. Across all sites, a simple linear regression approach including mean air temperature and mean relative humidity in the calculation of duration to flowering led to a root mean square error (RMSE) of 10 days, which was slightly lower than the RMSE of 11 days achieved with an automated calibration tool for parameter optimization of cardinal temperatures and photoperiod sensitivity. Parameter optimization for individual sites led to a much smaller prediction error, but also to large differences in cardinal temperatures between sites, mainly lower optimum temperatures for the cooler sites. To increase the predictive power of phenological models outside their calibration range and especially in climate change scenarios, a more mechanistic modelling approach is needed. A starting point could be including relative air humidity and radiation in the simulation procedure of crop development, and presumably, a closer link between growth and development procedures could help to increase the robustness of phenological models. 相似文献
15.
S. Chauhan R. S. Khandelwal K. V. Prabhu S. K. Sinha R. Khanna-Chopra 《Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science》2005,191(2):88-94
The impact of global warming on rise in temperature in different regions has often been expressed as a change in mean temperature (Tmean). The recent results suggest that this change could be both in diurnal and interannual temperatures. Therefore it is important to assess the impact of diurnal variation with the same mean temperature on crop plants for understanding the impact of climate change on agriculture, and also assess the possibility of genetic variation in adaptation. The present study in wheat (Triticum aestivum) varieties examines the effect of varying Tmax and Tmin, while maintaining the same mean temperature on phenology, growth and productivity. The mean temperatures examined are 18 °C with Tmax/Tmin combination of 18/18, 20/16, 22/14 and 24/12 °C. These wheat varieties differed considerably in their response to varying Tmax and Tmin with respect to days to ear emergence, anthesis, biomass accumulation and grain yield. The wheat variety HD2329, a popular Mexican dwarf high yielding cultivar showed maximum adaptation in the temperature combinations examined. The results suggest the need to refine the crop ideotypes in the context of the changing global scenario. This may require detailed experimental studies on various phenological phases. Such studies would help in assessing genotypes which may be having adaptation and thus identify the potential donors for further improvement of crops. 相似文献
16.
为了掌握植物物候期标指性气候特征,本文依据农八师垦区自然物候和气象观测资料,利用线性回归、相关分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,研究了该地区1980—2018年木本植物旱柳、榆树、箭杆杨春季物候特征及其对气温变化的响应规律。结果表明：旱柳、榆树、箭杆杨春季物候期提前趋势明显。旱柳展叶始期、开花盛期平均每10年提前2.9天和2.7天,2004年突变之后平均提前了4~5天。榆树展叶始期、开花盛期平均每10年提前5.6天和1.3天,2004年突变之后平均提前了9天和5天。箭杆杨展叶期平均每10年提前2.7天,2004年突变之后平均提前了4天。3—4月平均气温与旱柳、榆树、箭杆杨春季物候期呈显著负相关,在物候期之前1~2个月（3、4月份）内气温对木本物候期的影响最为显著。研究区当3—4月平均气温每上升1℃时,旱柳展叶始期、开花盛期分别提前1.8天;榆树展叶始期、开花盛期分别提前2.9天和1.8天;箭杆杨展叶始期提前1.9天。综上诉述,研究区气候变暖木本植物春季物候期提前已成为事实,这对于农时预报服务于当地农业生产起到良好作用,研究结果可为当地生态系统保护、农业结构调整及旅游产业开发等提供参考。 相似文献
17.
木本植物物候特性在研究植物群落演替、生态系统物质循环及气候变化等方面具有重要意义。以且末地区杏树、银白杨、白柳、桑树和葡萄5种木本植物物候为研究对象，采用趋势分析、显著性检验、Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法，分析植物物候变化特性及其与气温的关系。结果表明：（1）物候期的变化特征为：杏树、银白杨、白柳、桑树和葡萄的展叶始期、始花期提前，叶色全变期推后，末花期、落叶末期各不相同。杏树、桑树和葡萄的生长季延长，银白杨、白柳略微缩短。（2）杏树、桑树和葡萄的物候特征变化较为显著，银白杨、白柳不显著。（3）植物物候变化的总趋势为：春季物候提前，秋季物候推后，生长季延长，与气温的变化趋势一致。 相似文献