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1.
梁伟森  方伟 《中国农学通报》2021,37(25):157-164
研究旨在提高农户贷款信用风险度量的准确性,降低银行涉农贷款的不良率,促进银行对农户的信贷覆盖。从农户户主特征、资产负债、家庭收支和还款意愿4个方面选取违约判别指标,运用因子分析法克服多重共线性,基于Logistic原理构建适用于农村中小银行的农户贷款违约风险评估模型,并以中国家庭动态跟踪调查CFPS2018数据为样本进行实证研究。研究发现,农户的资产状况是影响贷款违约最主要的因素,资产负债率与其贷款信用风险正相关;家庭消费性支出越多,贷款违约的可能性越大;信任认同是重要因素,农户与人合作的信任度越高,违约风险越小。构建模型的预测准确率超过90%,具有普遍适用性。鼓励有条件的农村中小银行实施信用风险内部评级,提高农户的信贷覆盖,同时要加强相关配套建设,如优化风险组织架构、完善风险管理制度、优化风控人才队伍。  相似文献   

2.
Credit risk, the major risk of bank, is more and more intense during the period of economic restructuring in China. In view of the flaw of present risk measurement system, Conditional Value-at-Risk is used for the credit risk measurement which is better than Value-at-Risk. This paper creates the model ,while gives the method and procedure for solving it. So CVaRof credit combination is produced, which is just the early warning value of credit risk. At last, it is concluded that the CVaRrisk measurement is too difficult to use widely at present in china, then some advice is provided.  相似文献   

3.
[内容摘要] 在农村贷款市场上,由于农业的市场化程度不高、高风险低收益以及缺少贷款担保品,很多农户和农村中小企业不符合农村金融机构的贷款担保条件而得不到贷款。为缓解这种困境, 在中东欧转型经济体中很多国家都构建了以服务农民和农村经济发展为目的的信用担保体系,有效的缓解了农村贷款难的问题。当前我国正在积极构建农村信贷担保机制,本文在详细分析了四个中东欧转型经济体的农村信用担保基金和计划的运作模式和作法的基础上,总结并提出可供我国借鉴的方法和经验。  相似文献   

4.
农村中小企业债务融资障碍分析及对策研究   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
刘春英 《中国农学通报》2013,29(32):176-181
摘要:分析了农村中小企业融资的外部环境和企业自身的制约因素。提出了解决农村中小企业融资难的对策,在政策机制方面需要组建专门为农村中小企业服务的政策性金融机构,进一步放开搞活农村金融市场,扶持建立农村中小企业信用担保组织等;农村中小企业自身要探索组建企业产业群信用联保,推行供应链管理、电子商务和第三方物流以减少资金占用,加强诚信建设,提高信用信息公开意识,防止信用道德风险转嫁等。  相似文献   

5.
Market economy is the credit economy and principal of credibility is the foundation of market mechanism. With the development of economic reform, it is well concerned that discredit order of the society has become one of serious social problems which enhance the transaction cost of society. By using games analysis, reasons of discredit are studied based on personal behavior models under governmental regulation. According to the result that discredit is the result of personal choice under the existed institution, we should establish social credit management system to deal with the discredit based on credit information supplied by the independent third-part organization.  相似文献   

6.
This paper analyzes the current situation of university students' credit evaluation and set up an evaluation index system of university students' credit to compensate a loan.Based on this index system,this paper sets up a matter-element evaluation model on the individual credit of university students loan by means of extensible engineering method.The grade of individual credit and the index for evaluating the level of individual credit are made as matter-element,meanwhile,the classical field,the segment field,the weight coefficient are obtained.Dependence function is established based on the grade of individual credit and then the grade is judged by calculating the synthetic dependence degree.Finally,this paper presents the evaluation method by giving an example.This method is simple in calculation,reasonable in evaluation with high applicability.  相似文献   

7.
Based on the content of enterprise culture and enterprise credit, it is pointed out that the enterprise culture related to the enterprise core competitive force.In this paper, from the viewpoint of combining theory with practice, the intension, function and mutual relations between them are described and their significance in the market competition as well.The potential things,which the enterprise staffs are seeking for, from its inherent mind and the enterprise theory are the enterprise culture which becomes the enterprise core competitive force in its actual sense.The enterprise credit, as the enterprise culture in its ideological sphere, is an essential factor, which greatly affects the enterprise core competitive force.At last the authors provide some good suggestions on how to cultivate enterprise credit and to build enterprise culture.  相似文献   

8.
This paper analyzes the causes that contribute to listed companies' credit risk,and then formulates a logistic model of listed companies' credit in which the interest rate safeguard multiplier and turnover rate of inventory are taken as key indices through handling the data of the companies' annual reports.The listed companies' credit after one year of operation can be evaluated by using this model.  相似文献   

9.
以信息熵理论为基础,通过构建农民信贷决策的信息熵函数,以华北平原地区农村为例,探求了信息熵对农民家庭收入和支出两方面的影响及其对农民信贷需求的影响。研究发现,信息对农民家庭收支的影响存在差异;由于农村信息传播不畅通,致使农民家庭信贷需求是不完全有效的,并指出建立完善的农村信息传播机制,是提高农民信贷需求有效性的重要途径。  相似文献   

10.
福建农村信用社盈利能力的因素分析   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
选择主成分分析法,并在充分调研、专家咨询的基础上,本着定性指标和定量指标兼顾,绝对指标、相对指标和平均指标相结合的原则,确定了能够用来衡量农村信用社盈利能力的若干指标。认为农村信用社要实现可持续发展的长远战略目标,必须从现在起把能力建设作为重要战略基点,谋求在农村金融领域中的规模和优势,进行技术创新、制度创新、人力资源能力建设、外部环境培育。  相似文献   

11.
为了明确阐述北京农村信贷宏观制度的模式和发展阶段,作者运用宏观方法对服务于北京农村的主要信贷机构的发展历程、主要信贷业务方向及其规模进行了比较分析,得出了北京农村信贷的宏观制度已经实现了由合作信贷与商业信贷并存转化为商业信贷制度的结论。根据理性小农命题和道义小农命题、信贷制度与经济主体行为的相互影响等理论以及现实经济现象,作者做出了农村信贷制度三阶段动态发展的示意图。最后,提出了进一步发展北京农村信贷宏观制度的步骤和措施:了解北京农村信贷需求主体的构成;确定北京农村潜在信贷需求的类型和规模;适度增加一些小型合作信贷机构;增加不同机构的信贷业务竞争力;加快农村信用制度建设,推动农村信贷制度发展;等等。  相似文献   

12.
总结和分析农村信用社可持续发展调控系统,着重分析农村信用社持续经营系统的运行机制,并对农村信用社持续经营进行系统分析,提出农村信用社持续经营系统发展规划制定的主要依据。认为,实现农村信用社可持续发展应注重制度能力、科技能力、人力资源能力建设和外部环境培育,以提高农村信用社持续经营系统的协调能力和持续能力。  相似文献   

13.
The firm's debt maturity structure is the important part of capital structure. Based on the analysis of credit behavior between bank and enterprise, we study the determination of firm's debt maturity structure. It is shown that when there is the cost resulting from credit rationing, the maturity of the debt can be viewed as a signal about the firm's quality sent to the bank. The high quality firm with stable cash profit tends to the high ratio of short-term debt, and signaling quality of firm to bank.  相似文献   

14.
针对高职食品加工技术专业实践环节较多,教学的组织与安排困难比较大的特点,在深入探讨高职教育推行学分制改革意义的基础上,分析并思考了高职院校学分制改革中的一些做法,提出了食品类专业实施学分制教学管理模式的具体思路和措施。  相似文献   

15.
中国实施农村信用社发放农户小额信用贷款已经有5年。在实施的过程中,同以往其他贷款一样,出现了呆帐、坏帐、道德风险和产业风险测算不准、信用调查不实和评级不准等问题,不仅造成了信用社的贷款风险过大,而且也使农户贷款愈加困难。及时对农户小额信用贷款中存在的这些问题进行理论和实践上的创新性研究是十分必要的。研究的对象主要是信合保险这种新的金融实体,通过开展信合保险,不仅可以有效降低农村信用社的贷款风险,在一定程度上解决农户贷款难的问题,而且对改善农户生活水平也能起到一定的作用。开展信合保险也能健全农村的信贷保险机制,改善农村金融环境,推动农村经济的进一步发展。  相似文献   

16.
This paper introduces the basic content of information asymmetry theory and comments on the theory of information asymmetries.It establishes an information model in project management and analyzes the phenomenon of information asymmetries between owner and contractor in the phase of bidding and fulfilling.It presents some countermeasures of resolving information asymmetries in the project management such as building information network,devising reasonable contract,reinforcing government' s guidance,strengthening the good faith,breeding intermediate agency,building the system of early risk warning and so on.  相似文献   

17.
科技部农村技术开发中心与联合国开发计划署(UNDP)在中国科技扶贫领域已经进行了多年的合作,成功地实施了以“科技扶贫能力建设”为目标的小额信贷项目等多个扶贫发展项目。这些项目不仅实现了很好的经济效益,也取得了很好的社会效益,而且探索了多种基于中国国情的扶贫项目模式。尝试着评估了小额信贷项目的效绩,希望对于今后实施其他的扶贫发展项目、以至于对中国的扶贫事业和社会发展实践,能起到一定的理论意义和现实意义。  相似文献   

18.
As a new discipline, Chaos theory was ushered in the revolution in physics of the 20th century, which is of jistoric significance. Chaos theory is concerned with the objects in our tangible world (macro world) with the measure of human beings. In this paper, a brief analysis of chaos theory and fractals is given and then the enlightenment and new perspective for urban planning from chaos and chaos theory are illustrated. The author hopes that!this paper could draw the concerns of designers regarding the application of chaos in urban planning.  相似文献   

19.
This paper demonstrates that if the credit culture of the public product does not have a ownership of exclusiveness,the credit of the whole society will be explo ited excessively. That leads the whole societyforfeits sincerity. The authors use an example for guiding, expands foreign capitals bank to the recessive crisis in the whole society of China, and points out the importance of sincere construction.  相似文献   

20.
According to the present research status and existing problems of hot continuous billet surface temperature non contact measurement technology, a real time temperature measurement model, which combines two-color(R,G) and monochrome (B) of surface radiation image, is established. The surface image is collected through tricolor charge coupled device (CCD) sensor, at the same time, the temperature dynamic response range of CCD can be improved by controlling integrated time and setting different apertures. Through computer image process technology, multi-point temperature can be measured simultaneously, and 2-D temperature field distribution on continuous casting billet surface can be realized. It is be proved by theory and application that the model and method can provide a theory and technology support for realizing surface temperature field on-line measurement for continuous casting billet.  相似文献   

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