共查询到16条相似文献，搜索用时 500 毫秒
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基于CLIMEX和DIVA-GIS的瓜实蝇潜在地理分布预测 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
根据瓜实蝇Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett)的生物学数据和已知地理分布信息,采用CLIMEX软件的地点比较和DIVA-GIS软件的BIOCLIM两种模型研究瓜实蝇的潜在地理分布。结果表明两种模型均能准确预测出我国34.7~18.1°N,97.5~122.6°E范围内的19个省(市、自治区)是瓜实蝇的潜在地理分布区。广东、广西、海南、福建南部、云南南部、台湾西部以及四川盆地为高度适生区,江西、湖南、贵州、重庆、上海以及四川、云南、福建、浙江、江苏、安徽、湖北、陕西、河南、甘肃局部地区为中低度适生区。对全球的潜在分布区预测结果表明:瓜实蝇目前的地理分布还未达到其最大潜在地理分布范围,瓜实蝇随国际贸易进一步扩散的风险较高。对两种模型的进一步分析表明:在物种相关资料完整的情况下,CLIMEX的地点比较模型预测结果的准确性要高于DIVA-GIS的BIOCLIM模型。 相似文献
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基于CLIMEX的橘实锤腹实蝇在中国的适生性分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
橘实锤腹实蝇(Monacrostichus citricola Bezzi)隶属双翅目实蝇科寡鬃实蝇亚科,分布于马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国,是我国植物检疫性有害生物之一,危害柑橘类植物。本研究综合运用CLIMEX3.0软件与ArcGIS9.3软件对橘实锤腹实蝇在我国目前以及未来的潜在地理分布进行了研究。结果显示:目前气候条件下,橘实锤腹实蝇在我国的适生区主要分布在16.544°N～32.422°N之间;其中,高度适生区分布在16.5°N～28°N之间,占全国面积的7.53%,分布于海南、广东和广西南部的大部分地区、云南东南部以及四川盆地等地区;非适生区则占70.90%,主要分布于黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、河北、北京、天津、河南、山东、山西、内蒙、宁夏、青海、甘肃、新疆、西藏等省(自治区)。基于中国未来气候的预测结果显示,2020年,适生范围北界向北移至33.408°N,高度适生区范围北界向北移至32.867°N,高度适生范围占9.76%;2050年,适生范围较2020年相比没有变化,但高度适生区北界移至33.068°N,非适生区面积降至65.74%,高度适生区达到10.76%;而至2100年,适生范围南北界均向北移动,变为18.25°N～37.925°N之间,高度适生区则因为气候的进一步变化下降至5.68%,高度适生区开始因为该实蝇对环境进一步变化的不适应逐渐较少。鉴于橘实锤腹实蝇在我国的适生性研究结果,建议采取相应有效的防控策略,加强橘实锤腹实蝇检疫措施,完善监测体系,严防该虫的入侵和扩散。 相似文献
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枣实蝇在中国适生性初步研究 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
枣实蝇是严重危害枣类生产的重要害虫.本文采用CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS分析相结合的预测方法对枣实蝇在我国的适生性进行了研究,在明确枣实蝇CLIMEX参数指标体系和适生性评判标准的基础上,分析了该实蝇在我国的适生区域和适生程度.结果表明,枣实蝇在我国的适生区域广泛,适生程度偏高:山东、河南、陕西、山西、河北、北京、天津及云南大部分地区,辽宁和广西西部,四川和甘肃东部,江苏、安徽和湖北北部,以及新疆西部和北部的适生程度为高;辽宁和广西中东部,四川西部,重庆大部,湖北和安徽中部,江苏中北部,福建、江西和湖南的零星地区具有中度适生性.鉴于枣实蝇在我国的适生性研究结果,建议采取有效的防控策略,加强枣实蝇检疫措施,完善监测体系,严防该虫的入侵和扩散. 相似文献
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西花蓟马在中国的适生性分布研究初报 总被引：20，自引：5，他引：20
根据西花蓟马生物学及生态学特性的研究,利用地理信息系统ArcView 3.2分析预测了该虫在中国可能适生分布范围。结果表明,西花蓟马在中国可能的最适宜分布范围大体在16.53-30.77°N,97.85-121.9°E范围内,涉及华南、西南、华东地区的11个省(自治区、市)的123个县(市或地区);潜在适宜分布范围大体在25.43-48.77°N,75.23-132.96°E范围内,涉及华东、华南、西南、华中、西北、华北共28个省(自治区、直辖市)的468个县(市或地区)。 相似文献
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美国发布墨西哥按实蝇检疫新规定 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
美国动植物检疫局于2005年6月29日发布了修改后的墨西哥按实蝇的检疫规定,据此规定,从疫区调运的墨西哥按实蝇可感染的管制物品均须附有动植物检疫官员签署的证书,证明该实蝇的生活史已被破坏,在美国国内州际间调运也不例外,以防止其在非疫区发生危害. 相似文献
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蜜柑大实蝇在中国的适生性研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
蜜柑大实蝇Bactrocera(Tetradacus)tsuneonis(Miyake)是重要的检疫性有害生物,危害柑橘类作物.本研究在中国748气象站点的气象数据和蜜柑大实蝇生物学数据的基础上综合运用CLIMEX软件与ArcGIS软件对蜜柑大实蝇在我国的适生性进行研究.结果显示:蜜柑大实蝇在我国具有较高的适生性,适生范围涉及33个省、市(区),其中广西、广东、贵州、重庆、湖北、江苏的广大地区,四川、云南的东南部,陕西、河南的南部,安徽、台湾的北部和海南的中部地区等为高度适生区.本研究明确了蜜柑大实蝇在我国的适生性,提出了针对不同适生程度区域内的防控措施建议,对科学制定我国蜜柑大实蝇检疫政策和措施、防止该实蝇入侵和进一步扩散等具有重要的意义. 相似文献
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桃实蝇在西藏的适生性分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
［目的］ 明确桃实蝇在西藏的适生性,为科学制定检疫措施,防止其入侵和扩散,保护西藏水果的安全生产提供依据。［方法］ 以中国760个(西藏39个)气象站点的气象数据和桃实蝇生物学数据为基础,运用CLIMEX模型和ArcGIS分析相结合的方法对桃实蝇在中国,尤其是西藏的适生性进行分析。［结果］ 桃实蝇在我国具有较高的适生性,适生范围包括34个省、市（区）,其中海南、广东的南部、福建的南部、广西、云南、四川、陕西南部、河南和湖北的北部以及台湾的大部分地区属于高度适生区。而桃实蝇在西藏有3个适生站点。［结论］ 我国很多地区是桃实蝇的适生区,并且高度和中度适生区的范围相对较大。存在桃实蝇入侵西藏并定殖危害的可能性。 相似文献
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沙棘绕实蝇(Rhagoletis batava Hering)是危害沙棘果实的重要害虫。本研究采用Maxent模型,在收集和整理沙棘绕实蝇全球地理分布信息的基础上,筛选出与该虫发生相关的11个关键环境变量,预测了当前及未来气候条件下该虫在全球以及我国的适生区和适生程度。在当前气候条件下,该虫在全球的适生范围主要集中在北温带地区,在我国的适生范围较广且适生程度较高;在2050年的两种气候情景下,沙棘绕实蝇在全球的适生区北界均向北移动,在我国的适生范围均略有扩大且适生区向西南部拓展。建议我国相关部门进一步加强针对沙棘绕实蝇的入侵防控工作。 相似文献
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番石榴果实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
番石榴果实蝇Bactrocera(Bactrocera)correcta(Bezzi)是一种寄主范围广、为害严重的水果果实害虫,目前已入侵我国云南和台湾两省。为了明确该虫在我国的潜在地理分布,根据其生物生态学资料及地理分布信息,采用CLIMEX的地点比较模型和DIVA-GIS的BIOCLIM模型对番石榴果实蝇的适生区进行预测,并比较了预测结果。结果表明,预测番石榴果实蝇的潜在地理分布,地点比较模型优于BIOCLIM模型;该虫在我国的中、高适生区主要包括云南、广东、广西、海南、台湾、福建、贵州以及四川省。 相似文献
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H. L. Er P. D. Roberts J. J. Marois A. H. C. van Bruggen 《European journal of plant pathology / European Foundation for Plant Pathology》2013,137(3):635-647
Citrus black spot (CBS), caused by Phyllosticta citricarpa McAlp Van der Aa, was recently detected in southern Florida in the US. In addition to infected plant propagation materials, movement of infected citrus fruit poses a concern for potential spread of the disease out of the current quarantine zone, because lesions with pycnidia and conidia could develop after harvest. The conditions conducive for mycelial growth and development of pycnidia and conidia are not well known. Therefore, effects of temperature and relative humidity on growth and conidial production of P. citricarpa were determined and used as parameter inputs in CLIMEX to predict potential establishment of CBS in North America. Colony growth and conidial production in vitro were optimal at 27 °C, whereas there was no growth below 4 °C and above 37 °C. On fruit, lesion development and conidial production were observed at 4 °C, though at a low rate, indicating a greater versatility of the fungus on fruit. More full pycnidia were produced on the CBS lesions at 91 % RH compared to 84 %. Input parameters for CBS risk in CLIMEX obtained from literature, which reflected conditions for infection in spring/summer in Florida, predicted potential establishment in Florida but not in California. However, altering the parameter values to account for survival of the pathogen in leaf litter in winter predicted potential establishment in California as well as Florida. Thus, P. citricarpa could possibly establish beyond Florida if this organism is transported outside of the current quarantine zone to other citrus production areas. 相似文献
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基于DYMEX和DIVA-GIS的昆士兰果实蝇潜在地理分布预测 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用DYMEX软件的地点比较和DIVA-GIS软件的BIOCLIM两种模型,分析昆士兰果实蝇Bactrocera tryoni(Froggatt)在中国及全球的潜在地理分布.结果表明,两种模型均能预测出我国33.3～18.2°N、95.8～122.1°E范围内的地区为昆士兰果实蝇的潜在地理分布区,其中,海南、云南、广西、广东、福建、贵州和江西南部、四川东部、重庆西部及台湾部分地区为高度适生区;全球昆士兰果实蝇的潜在分布区主要包括澳大利亚、南亚、南美洲、北美洲南部沿海地区、地中海沿岸部分地区以及非洲中南部地区. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT There is no evidence that Pyrenophora semeniperda, the causal agent of leaf spotting in many annual and perennial grasses, currently occurs in Europe or Asia. However, there is potential phytosanitary concern that the importation of infected commodities could result in the introduction of this fungus into Eurasia, putting crops at risk and possibly resulting in economic losses. To assist in assessing the risk of geographic range extension of P. semeniperda, an analysis was undertaken to estimate the potential global distribution of this species, based on climatic suitability. Geographic distribution data for P. semeniperda in part of its current range were used to fit parameter values in a CLIMEX pest risk assessment model, and the remaining distribution data were used to validate the model. The CLIMEX model correctly predicts that virtually all locations where P. semeniperda has been found are climatically suitable. Only five locations worldwide where the fungus was recorded present are predicted as being unsuitable. These "outliers" may have been transient populations occurring during a favorable season and then dying out. Exploratory adjustments of the model to accommodate these records created unsatisfactory distortions in the projected climatic suitability surfaces, extending the suitable climatic zone beyond well-established traditional range boundaries. We are therefore confident that the model is credibly predicting the potential distribution of P. semeniperda worldwide. The CLIMEX model suggests that P. semeniperda could potentially extend its range throughout Europe and temperate regions of Asia, Africa, and South America. Our heavy reliance upon geographic data to build this CLIMEX model departs from most previous published examples in plant pathology, which have depended primarily upon experimentally derived physiological data to estimate model parameters. The use of geographic data to infer climate parameters is popular in CLIMEX models of weeds and arthropod pests and can provide decision-makers with early risk assessments of potential pathogen invasions, particularly where the pathogens have long, or difficult-to-study, lifecycles. 相似文献
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H. A. Narouei-Khandan S. P. Worner S. L. H. Viljanen A. H. C. van Bruggen E. E. Jones 《Plant pathology》2020,69(1):17-27
Myrtle rust (caused by Austropuccinia psidii) affects more than 500 known host species in the Myrtaceae family. Three different modelling approaches (CLIMEX, MaxEnt and Multi-Model Framework) were used to project the habitat suitability for myrtle rust at both global and local scales. Current data on the global occurrence of myrtle rust were collected from online literature and expert solicitation. Long-term averages of climate data (1960–1990) were sourced from WorldClim and CliMond websites. Recent reports of myrtle rust in New Zealand were used for validation of model outputs but not in model training and testing. The model outputs were combined into a consensus model to identify localities projected to be suitable for myrtle rust according to two or three models (hotspots). In addition to the locations where the pathogen is currently present, all models successfully projected independent occurrence data in New Zealand suitable for establishment of the pathogen. Climate suitability for the pathogen was primarily related to temperature followed by rainfall in MaxEnt and the CLIMEX model. The results confirmed the optimum temperature range of this pathogen in the literature (15–25 °C). Additional analysis of the precipitation variables indicated that excessive rain (more than 2000 mm in warmest quarter of the year) combined with high temperatures (>30 °C) constrain pathogen establishment. The results of the current study can be useful for countries such as New Zealand, China, South Africa and Singapore where the pathogen has not fully spread or established. 相似文献
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气候变化条件下樱桃绕实蝇在中国的潜在地理分布预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
樱桃绕实蝇Rhagoletis cerasi(L.)被我国列为进境检疫性有害生物,目前在我国尚无分布报道。为明确该虫在我国的适生区及适生程度,利用CLIMEX地点比较模型预测在当前以及未来2030、2080年A1B与A2两种不同排放情景下樱桃绕实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布。结果显示,樱桃绕实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布包括长江以北的大部分地区,随着气候变化,到2030年与2080年,樱桃绕实蝇的低度适生区、中度适生区面积均增加,高度适生区面积减少,其中在2030年A1B排放情景下樱桃绕实蝇的总适生区面积增加了48.4万km~2,在2030年的A2情景下与2080年的A1B与A2情景下总适生区面积分别减少了3.4、5.7、5.7万km~2。因此,为保护我国樱桃种植业的安全生产,应加强对该虫的检疫力度,防止其传入我国。 相似文献