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1.
采用批平衡方法实验研究了长江三角洲地区4种典型土壤对Pb的吸附、解吸行为及有机质和温度对Pb吸附的影响,并运用热力学参数K°、ΔG°、ΔH°和ΔS°解释了土壤Pb的吸附机理。结果表明,在本实验条件下,Pb在土壤上的吸附过程表现出明显的非线性,符合Freundlich模型。土壤Pb吸附Kf值大小为:滩潮土(石质淡色潮湿雏形土)(3816dm3kg-1)>乌黄土(底潜铁聚水耕人为土)(1984dm3kg-1)>青紫泥(普通潜育水耕人为土)(1030dm3kg-1)>黄泥砂土(铁聚潜育水耕人为土)(348dm3kg-1)。去除有机质后的土壤对Pb的吸附量降低,解吸率升高。吸附反应热力学表明,K°和ΔS°随温度升高而增大,ΔG°随温度升高而降低。ΔG°为负值,表明Pb吸附反应为自发反应,ΔH°为正值表明土壤Pb吸附为吸热反应。乌黄土、青紫泥和滩潮土对铅吸附的主要作用力为化学键力,黄泥砂土为范德华力和偶极间力。Pb在土壤上的解吸过程存在明显的滞后现象。pH、碳酸钙含量和平衡浓度越高,滞后系数越大,这可能与在高pH和高碳酸钙含量时,Pb与土壤形成难解吸内圈配位物有关。  相似文献   

2.
胡宁静  骆永明  宋静 《土壤学报》2007,44(3):437-443
土壤重金属吸附-解吸反应影响重金属的迁移性、生物有效性和潜在毒性,研究土壤重金属的吸附-解吸过程及其机制对土壤污染评价、修复及环境容量预测至关重要。本文研究了长江三角洲地区四种典型土壤对Cd的吸附行为及有机质、pH和温度对土壤Cd吸附的影响,并运用热力学参数K°、ΔG°、ΔH°和ΔS°解释了土壤镉的吸附机制。研究结果表明,在本实验条件下,四种典型土壤镉吸附反应均很好地符合Fre-undlich模型。土壤镉吸附Kf值大小为:滩潮土(石质淡色潮湿雏形土)(238.8dm3kg-1)>乌黄土(底潜铁聚水耕人为土)(115.4dm3kg-1)>青紫泥(普通潜育水耕人为土)(54.40dm3kg-1)>黄泥砂土(铁聚潜育水耕人为土)(10.74dm3kg-1),滩潮土镉吸附Kf是黄泥砂土的24倍。土壤镉吸附量随溶液初始pH和土壤pH升高而增大;去除有机质后的土壤对镉的吸附量降低。吸附反应热力学表明,K°和ΔS°随温度升高而增大,ΔG°随温度升高而降低。ΔG°为负值表明镉吸附反应为自发反应,ΔH°为正值表明土壤镉吸附为吸热反应。  相似文献   

3.
典型湖库底泥对氮吸附特性的影响   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
以吉林省长春市新立城水库为对象,采用连续分级法研究土壤及底泥中的游离态氮(FN)、可交换态氮(EN)、酸解态氮(HN)和残渣态氮(RN)之间的关系,探讨土壤和底泥对氮的吸附等温线、吸附动力学、吸附热力学及不同pH和有机质对氮吸附量的影响。结果表明:富营养化湖库底泥中FN、EN和HN的含量均高于新立城水库底泥和土壤,试样中氮素的稳定性为新立城水库底泥土壤富营养化水库底泥。对NH+4-N的吸附动力学可通过准二级反应动力学方程来表示,新立城水库底泥、富营养化湖库底泥和土壤的吸附平衡时间大致为20min,平衡吸附量分别为375.887,156.287,364.966μg/g,等温线可以通过Langmuir方程进行描述,底泥对NH+4-N的平衡吸附量与底泥中游离态氮和可交换态氮含量之和呈显著负相关,相关性系数为0.901 6;吸附热力学表明,随着温度的升高,吸附量逐渐减少,说明样品在完成物理吸附的同时还存在一个弱放热反应。样品对NH+4-N吸附量随着pH的增加而增大,pH在平衡吸附量对土壤的影响要高于底泥,底泥对NH+4-N吸附量随着有机质含量及温度的升高而降低。  相似文献   

4.
为探明环丙沙星在湖库底泥中的吸附特性,以长春市新立城水库底泥为供试样品,利用OECD guideline 106批平衡吸附试验方法,研究环丙沙星在底泥中的吸附行为,并探讨pH和Ca~(2+)强度对环丙沙星吸附过程的影响。结果表明:环丙沙星的等温吸附能较好的拟合Herry-Freundlich和Herry-Langmuir复合吸附等温方程,其中Herry-Langmuir方程的拟合效果更好,相关系数r=0.995 3,达到差异极显著水平。环丙沙星在底泥中的整个吸附过程符合准二级反应动力学方程,吸附参数k=8.76×10~(-3)kg/(min·mg)。研究发现,pH值在3~11的条件下,环丙沙星的吸附量随pH的增加呈先升高后降低的趋势。当pH=5时,吸附效果最好,可吸附环丙沙星总量的99.75%,强酸性和强碱性条件均不利于底泥对环丙沙星的吸附。随电解质中CaCl_2浓度的增加,底泥对环丙沙星的吸附能力降低,吸附量减少。当Ca~(2+)浓度增加到1.5mol/L时,Ca~(2+)和环丙沙星二者间的竞争性吸附逐渐达到平衡,底泥对环丙沙星的吸附量不会再随Ca~(2+)浓度的增加而变化,此时吸附量为总量的62.34%,由此可推断阳离子交换是环丙沙星在底泥中吸附过程的重要机制之一。  相似文献   

5.
王丽香  吕家珑  庄舜尧  胡正义 《土壤》2009,41(3):402-407
通过等温吸附、动力学吸附和热力学吸附模拟试验对我国东部河网地区稻田土壤与河道底泥对P的吸附特性进行了比较研究.结果表明:Langmuir方程对稻田土壤与河道底泥对P的等温吸附拟合程度最好,Freundlich方程次之,Temkin方程最差.稻田土壤和河道底泥的吸附常数K值分别为0.82和0.95,表明河道底泥吸附P的能力要强于稻田土壤.无论是稻田土壤还是河道底泥,对P的吸附都存在着快吸附和慢吸附两个过程.稻田土壤与河道底泥对水体P的吸附主要发生在0 ~ 2 h之内,2 h以后基本达到了一种慢吸附直至平衡过程.在相同的时间段内,河道底泥对P的吸附速率比稻田土壤大,Elovich方程为描述P动力吸附的最优模型.P的热力学吸附结果表明,温度对河道底泥和稻田土壤吸附P都有明显的影响,但比较而言,温度对河道底泥吸附P的影响较大,也就是说,河道底泥更容易发生对P的吸附反应.  相似文献   

6.
为探讨发生铝污染的白浆土中金属铝的解吸特性,采用平衡振荡法,研究铝在白浆土中的解吸行为及不同因素的影响。结果表明:在720min后,白浆土中的铝解吸基本达到平衡;25℃下,土壤有机质含量为42.2g/kg,铝在白浆土中的解吸量仅为吸附量的1.5%;用Langmuir方程可很好地拟合白浆土中铝解吸等温曲线(r=0.985 9**),说明表面均匀单层解吸占主导;热力学参数ΔG0,ΔH0,ΔS0,表明铝的解吸是自发、吸热和熵增加的过程。土壤有机质由42.2g/kg降至27.8g/kg时,白浆土中铝的最大解吸量由25.87mg/kg升至66.11mg/kg,且导致解吸滞后现象的加剧。pH降至3时,铝的解吸量升至226.4mg/kg,是pH在5~7时的8倍以上。随着解吸液中NaCl和Na_2SO_4浓度的增加,铝的解吸量增加。总之,吸附到白浆土中的铝解吸能力较弱,但pH和有机质含量降低,无机盐含量升高,铝的解吸量大幅增加,污染风险急剧上升。  相似文献   

7.
用自行设计的动力学装置研究了酸性条件下Zn在红壤表面的反应动力学能量特征。结果表明,酸性条件下,Zn吸附分为快反应和慢反应。用一级动力学方程拟合的Zn最大吸附量:pH5.5处理Zn的最大吸附量在289 K时为1.79 mmol.kg^-1,在313 K时为2.62 mmol.kg^-1;pH3.3处理Zn的最大吸附量在289 K时为0.12 mmol.kg^-1,在313 K时为0.16 mmol.kg^-1。即吸附量随酸度增加显著下降,随温度升高明显增加。用扩散速率常数计算的活化能(ΔE*):pH5.5处理Zn的ΔE*为9.05 kJ.mol^-1,pH3.3处理Zn的ΔE*为12.02 kJ.mol^-1,随酸度的增加ΔE*增加,Zn扩散需克服的能障加大,Zn吸附量降低。ΔH值为正,温度升高可促进Zn的扩散;ΔS值均为负,说明吸附反应使体系有序度增加。原液pH为5.5时,流出液的pH急剧下降;pH4.3、pH3.8和pH3.3时流出液比流入液的pH高,是由于土壤的缓冲作用和土壤表面质子化;当溶液中H+超过一定数量后,反应初期的H+消耗是快反应过程,H+对矿物的溶蚀成为速率控制步骤。  相似文献   

8.
pH对砷在贵州红壤中的吸附的影响   总被引:8,自引:3,他引:8  
陈静  王学军  朱立军 《土壤》2004,36(2):211-214
本文研究了贵州遵义红壤中pH对砷(As)的吸附和形态的影响。结果表明,当溶液中As的浓度增大时,土壤对As的吸附量增大,吸附率逐渐降低,As从红壤的低能位点位逐渐进入到高能位吸附点位,吸附反应速率减慢。Langmuir方程拟合等温吸附效果较好,可决系数达到0.969 (P < 0.001)。体系pH是影响红壤对As吸附、解吸的重要因素,As的吸附量随着体系pH的升高而降低,吸附态As的解吸量随着体系pH的升高而增大。酸性环境(pH = 4 ~ 6.5)有利于As的吸附,碱性环境(pH = 7 ~ 8.5)有利于As的解吸。  相似文献   

9.
通过往土壤中添加不同量小麦秸秆,经好气培养1年后,获得不同有机质含量梯度的系列土壤,研究有机质含量对石灰性黄潮土和砂姜黑土磷(P)相关吸附参数和不同水土比下解吸溶液P浓度的影响。结果表明,Langmuir方程能够较好地拟合不同有机质含量的两种土壤对P的等温吸附曲线,拟合度均达到显著(P 0.05)或极显著(P 0.01)水平。黄潮土和砂姜黑土P最大吸附量(Xm)、吸附结合能常数(K)、最大缓冲容量(MBC)、吸附饱和度(DPS)及相同水土比下P解吸溶液浓度与有机碳含量间均呈显著或极显著的二次抛物线关系。抛物线拐点之前,随有机质含量的提高,P的吸附能力增强,解吸能力降低;拐点之后,吸附能力降低,解吸能力增强。各水土比条件下,P解吸溶液浓度与Xm、K、MBC呈显著或极显著负相关,与DPS呈显著或极显著正相关。随有机质含量的提高,土壤P植物有效性和P流失风险呈先降低后增强的抛物线趋势;土壤供P缓冲能力则先增强后降低。砂姜黑土Xm、K、MBC均明显高于黄潮土,DPS明显低于黄潮土;且其抛物线拐点滞后,拐点横坐标有机碳含量明显高于黄潮土。不同有机质含量的解吸曲线较黄潮土排列紧密;砂姜黑土黏粒含量、碳酸钙含量明显高于黄潮土,全P和Olsen-P含量明显低于黄潮土,这可能是影响两种石灰性土壤P吸附–解吸特性差别的主要原因。  相似文献   

10.
间作对红壤磷素吸附解吸平衡效应的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
磷素的吸附和解吸特性对土壤磷素迁移及其环境效应具有重要影响,过量磷肥施入易造成土壤磷素固定和流失,但合理间作可促进磷素吸收利用,减少固定,研究间作和不同施磷量条件下红壤磷素吸附解吸特性的平衡效应对促进红壤磷的高效利用,兼顾环境效应具有重要意义。本研究采取2因素裂区区组试验,主因素为种植模式,分别为与玉米||大豆(IM)、单作玉米(MM);副因素为施磷水平,分别为P0 [0 kg(P_2O_5)·hm~(-2)]、P60 [60 kg(P_2O_5)·hm~(-2)]、P90 [90 kg(P_2O_5)·hm~(-2)]、P120 [120 kg(P_2O_5)·hm~(-2)] 4个施磷水平,通过田间试验,研究间作和施磷量对红壤磷素吸附解吸平衡效应的影响;应用结构方程模型(SEM)和邻接树法(ABT)定量分析间作和施磷水平对磷吸附和解吸的相对贡献,揭示间作影响红壤磷素吸附解吸的关键因子。结果表明:1) Langmuir等温吸附方程最适合红壤对磷的吸附特征拟合,土壤磷吸附量随平衡溶液磷浓度的增加呈先增加再趋于饱和的趋势,土壤磷吸附量随施磷量的增加逐渐降低。2)种植模式和施磷水平以及交互作用极显著(P0.01)影响红壤磷素的吸附量和解吸量。间作处理较单作磷素吸附量和解吸量分别增加22.9%和9.2%(P0.05);不同施磷水平下,间作磷吸附量较单作显著增加13.0%、19.4%、41.5%和23.9%(P0.05);磷解吸量在P0和P60处理间作较单作显著增加90.2%和194.4%(P0.05),而在P90和P120处理间作较单作减少52.1%和34.1%(P0.05)。3)不同种植模式与施磷水平下,土壤磷吸附量与土壤pH、有机质、树脂磷、有效磷、全磷以及磷吸附饱和度呈极显著负相关(P0.01),与游离氧化铁、游离氧化铝和磷吸持指数呈极显著正相关(P0.01),土壤磷解吸量与标准需磷量呈极显著负相关(P0.01)。红壤磷素的吸附和解吸主要受pH、有机质和游离氧化铁的影响,间作通过改变土壤的pH、有机质和游离氧化铁含量影响红壤磷吸附量和解吸量。玉米||大豆间作具有较好的土壤磷缓冲能力,低磷水平下促进磷素大量解吸供植物吸收利用,高磷水平下促进磷素吸附有效减缓磷素的损失。  相似文献   

11.
低氮和干旱胁迫对富士和秦冠生长及氮素利用的影响   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
【目的】以富士(Fuji)、 秦冠(Qinguan)嫁接在平邑甜茶(Malus hupehensis Rehd.)上的当年生盆栽苗为试验材料,采用砂培方法,研究了缺氮胁迫和干旱对富士和秦冠生长情况、 光合参数、 植株各部位氮磷钾含量及氮素利用效率的影响,分析比较了低氮干旱条件下富士和秦冠生长及氮素利用的差异,以期为果树生产高效肥水利用提供理论指导。【方法】试验共设四个处理: 正常氮正常水(ZZ)、 低氮正常水(DZ)、 正常氮干旱(ZG)、 低氮干旱(DG)。氮素和水分均设置两个水平,分别为正常氮(6 mmol/L NO-3-N)、 低氮(0.3 mmol/LNO-3-N)、 正常供水(保持盆中砂子相对含水量为饱和含水量的80%~85%)、 干旱处理(保持盆中砂子相对含水量为饱和含水量的60%~65%)。【结果】富士和秦冠的生物量(茎和叶)、 株高茎粗等生长指标以及光合速率、 气孔导度、 蒸腾速率均为正常氮正常水(ZZ)>低氮正常水(DZ)>正常氮干旱(ZG)>低氮干旱(DG),并且相对应处理下秦冠的以上指标均高于富士;正常供水下,缺氮处理使富士、 秦冠的根冠比比正常氮处理均有所增加,富士提高了2.05%,秦冠提高了22.40%。富士和秦冠的氮、 磷、 钾含量均表现出正常氮正常水(ZZ)>低氮正常水(DZ)>正常氮干旱(ZG)>低氮干旱(DG); 氮、 钾元素含量在植株各部位的分布顺序依次是叶>根>茎,磷元素则是根>叶>茎;光合氮素利用效率(PNUE)和氮素利用效率表现为秦冠处理之间差异极显著,富士处理之间差异不显著;秦冠的PNUE和NUE明显高于富士,在低氮正常水(DZ)处理下,秦冠氮肥利用率比富士高42.07%,在低氮干旱(DG)处理下高64.14%;低氮胁迫下富士和秦冠的NUE显著提高,并且秦冠提高的幅度高于富士。【结论】施用氮肥能够显著提高富士与秦冠的干物质量,同等水肥条件下,秦冠生长优于富士;水分亏缺会减少叶片对氮的吸收,干旱条件下适度增施氮肥,可提高果树的抗旱能力;低氮干旱胁迫下秦冠的生长指标、 光合指标及氮素利用效率指标均优于富士,表现出较强的抗低氮干旱胁迫的能力。  相似文献   

12.
Staff members of the Department of Botany of Palacký University in Olomouc and Gene Bank Department – Workplace Olomouc, Research Institute of Crop Production in Prague, Czech Republic, conducted an expedition in seven European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland) in August/September 1999 to collect wild Lactuca spp. germplasm and study its geographic distribution, ecology and biodiversity. During the mission, more than 600 locations were visited resulting in the collection of 602 seed samples (accessions) of wild Lactuca species and 13 seed samples of related genera (Chondrilla and Mycelis). Lactuca serriola f. serriola, L. serriola f. integrifolia, L. saligna and L. viminea subsp. chondrilliflora were prevalent in southern Europe (Italy, France), however, only L. serriola was common in central and western Europe (Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland). The greatest diversity of Lactuca species was found in France, where also the most seed samples (165) were collected. The most characteristic habitats with a high density of Lactuca spp. populations were observed along roads and highways, grassy ditches, ruderal communities, and dust-heaps. Natural infections by powdery mildew (Erysiphe cichoracearum) and downy mildew (Bremia lactucae) on some wild Lactuca spp. were observed. Recent observations concerning the geographic distribution, population structure, habitats, and natural occurrence of diseases of Lactuca spp. are discussed. This assemblage of genetic resources of Lactuca spp. can serve as the basis of future studies of species diversification, spatial population structure, plant microevolution, domestication processes, and genetic variability of host-parasite interactions.  相似文献   

13.
Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a new technique for the analysis of plant material. This study investigates the application of LIBS to pasture-based plant samples. The LIBS measurements were obtained from pelletized pasture samples (100 samples) that had been also analyzed by inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) following microwave digestion for calibration and comparison purposes. Comparisons for elements sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), boron (B), phosphorus (P), and sulfur (S) showed that LIBS could be used for almost all the standard profile total elements with concentrations down to low mg/kg levels (observed error of Na: 0.024 percent, K: 0.18 percent, Mg: 0.016 percent, Ca: 0.073 percent, P: 0.017 percent, Mn: 31 mg/kg, Fe: 150 mg/kg, Zn: 6.6 mg/kg, and B: 1.1 mg/kg). Elemental analysis at less than mg/kg levels was not possible using LIBS. The elements S and Cu were particularly difficult to analyze with reliability using LIBS at the concentration levels found in the plant samples. Replacing microwave digestion and subsequent ICP analysis with a direct analysis of dried plant samples using LIBS has the potential to improve the productivity and reduce the cost of testing.  相似文献   

14.
We have studied the effect of anaerobically digested (ADMSW) and composted municipal solid waste (CMSW) on mineralization and foodweb dynamics to verify the hypothesis that ADMSW would immobilize N right after addition to soil in contrast to addition with CMSW. Another hypothesis was that the mesofauna (enchytraeids and microarthropods) would stimulate N release from the decomposer community. We measured excretion of -N and urea-N from the mesofauna and hypothesized that enchytraeids would release urea. ADMSW and CMSW were amended to pots with sandy loam and barley. The pots were divided into treatments with or without mesofauna. Mesofauna, plant N and biomass, soil N and ergosterol (fungal biomass) were measured over a 113-day period of four equidistant samplings. Soil respiration, N mineralization and N release by the mesofauna were modelled from concurrent studies. ADMSW- and CMSW-treated soils initially (<20 days) immobilized N. The amendments did not increase plant growth substantially, and this was probably due to N-limitation in the early stages of plant growth. Enchytraeid abundance was about three times higher in ADMSW- than CMSW-treated soils, indicating that ADMSW contained more labile compounds, bacteria, and microfauna. The mesofauna did not affect N-content, but the cumulated -N excreted by the mesofauna was estimated to be substantial and about one-fifth of total plant N in ADMSW. An explanation for this discrepancy might be that in the absence of the mesofauna, other members of the detrivore and microbivore community performed the mesofauna’s function. Neither enchytraeids nor microarthropods excreted urea.  相似文献   

15.
正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology,  相似文献   

16.
正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology,  相似文献   

17.
正The Center for Agricultural Resources Research(CARR),the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology(IGDB),Chinese Academy of Sciences,invites applicants for several research group leader positions.CARR is one of the research organizations in Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).We seek nominations and applications from individuals who have expertise and a record of accomplishment in research areas related to ecology,agro-hydrology,  相似文献   

18.
The responses of tallgrass prairie plant communities and ecosystem processes to fire and grazing are well characterized. However, responses of invertebrate consumer groups, and particularly soil-dwelling organisms, to these disturbances are not well known. At Konza Prairie Biological Station, we sampled soil macroinvertebrates in 1994 and 1999 as part of a long-term experiment designed to examine the effects and interactions of annual fire, mowing, and fertilization (N and P) on prairie soil communities and processes. For nearly all taxa, in both years, responses were characterized by significant treatment interactions, but some general patterns were evident. Introduced European earthworms (Aporrectodea spp. and Octolasion spp.) were most abundant in plots where fire was excluded, and the proportion of the total earthworm community consisting of introduced earthworms was greater in unburned, unmowed, and fertilized plots. Nymphs of two Cicada genera were collected (Cicadetta spp. and Tibicen spp.). Cicadetta nymphs were more abundant in burned plots, but mowing reduced their abundance. Tibicen nymphs were collected almost exclusively from unburned plots. Treatment effects on herbivorous beetle larvae (Scarabaeidae, Elateridae, and Curculionidae) were variable, but nutrient additions (N or P) usually resulted in greater densities, whereas mowing usually resulted in lower densities. Our results suggest that departures from historical disturbance regimes (i.e. frequent fire and grazing) may render soils more susceptible to increased numbers of European earthworms, and that interactions between fire, aboveground biomass removal, and vegetation responses affect the structure and composition of invertebrate communities in tallgrass prairie soils.  相似文献   

19.
The powerful mass-flow of melt water during the brief period of spring thaw provides a surge of pollutants and causes extremely toxic short term conditions. Together with the increase in total metal concentrations during this period, a redistribution in metal speciation occurs that increases the proportion of more toxic forms. Concentrations of ion-exchangeable fractions of nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), aluminium (Al), and manganese (Mn) show strong negative correlations with pH. The sum of complex metal species shows a strong positive correlation with total organic carbon (TOC). A data analysis model based on relationships observed between key parameters and metal behaviour together with gidrological data allowed an assessmrnt of the metal impact on waterbodies from accumulated airborne pollution (Ni, Cu) as well as from accelerated leaching from watersheds (Al, Mn).  相似文献   

20.
“Wicked” problems are those that are complex and that change when solutions are applied. Many conflicts in conservation fall into this category. The study approached the problem of how to constrain the apparent wickedness of a problem in the conservation management of a species by using simple empirical indicators to carry out iterative assessment of the risk to a population and to document how this risk evolves in relation to the addition of new data and the implementation of management actions. Effects of high levels of uncertainty within data and also concerning population structure were examined through stochastic simulation and by exploration of scenarios. Historical trends in the example used, the Steller sea lion, showed rapid declines in abundance in some regions during the 1980s. The current total population is 130,000-150,000 Steller sea lions through Alaska and British Columbia and this number has been stable since about 1990 in spite of regional differences in population dynamics. Regional differences in the sequence of changes in the number of pups and non-pups, suggested that an internal re-distribution of juveniles could have happened between 1980 and 1990. Current productivity also appears close to the long-term mean. Stochastic population projection using various scenarios showed that, based upon this history, the risk of extinction for the population has declined and is below reasonable thresholds for considering the population to be endangered. The trends in risk suggest that management actions taken since 1990 have probably been effective. Consequently, the conservation management objectives for the Steller sea lion are probably being met. The approach provides a mechanism, based upon experience and scenario analysis, for exploring future policy options and may help to constrain the debate amongst stakeholders about the cost-benefit trade-offs associated with different options.  相似文献   

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