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高致病性禽流感(HPAI)是一种严重威胁我国肉禽养殖业健康持续发展的重大疫病。肉禽养殖场对HPAI传入和传播风险因素的识别与控制,对于有效防止HPAI疫情的暴发和传播,促进肉禽养殖业的健康和持续发展具有重要现实意义。本研究通过文献研究和专家咨询,对肉禽养殖场HPAI传入和传播风险因素进行研究,确定了12项I级指标和94项Ⅱ级指标,构建了肉禽养殖场HPAI传入和传播风险因素框架;借助层次分析软件YAAHP V10.3,对各风险指标权重进行逐级计算,并完成了一致性检验。计算结果显示:总排序一致性检验系数CR=0.021 0,各Ⅱ级指标排序一致性检验系数CR≤0.036 0,符合权重判断矩阵的要求。本模型的建立可为肉禽养殖场的HPAI传入和传播风险控制提供参考依据。 相似文献
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布病是布鲁氏菌病的简称,该病具有传染性强、覆盖面广、传播速度快的特点。牛羊一旦感染该病,治愈率较低,终身携带病菌,严重时会患病牛羊甚至死亡。牛羊布病主要由布鲁氏菌引发,会对牛羊生殖器官造成感染,引发牛羊不育、流产及其他病症。布病是一种人畜共患病,人类如果误食患病牛羊肉或与患病牛羊紧密接触,可能会自身感染布病。因此,探讨牛羊布病流行传播的风险及防控对策,具有现实意义。 相似文献
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半定量风险评估是采用定量与定性分析相结合方式进行的风险评估。为规范福建省奶牛场和各级动物疫病防控机构开展奶牛场布鲁氏菌病（简称“布病”）风险评估,提供一套科学、规范、操作性强的奶牛场布病风险评估方法,参照世界动物卫生组织（WOAH）风险评估的原则和步骤,通过文献查阅,收集专家经验,拟定各种奶牛场布病传入和场内传播风险因素,生成电子问卷后,邀请国内44位兽医流行病学领域或实践管理经验丰富的专家,采用改良的德尔菲专家咨询法,对风险因素进行风险赋值,并确定传入风险与场内传播风险的权重,同时征求修改意见和建议,经综合分析后建立了一套实用的奶牛场布病半定量风险评估方法,以期为福建省控制和净化布病,建立奶牛布病无疫小区提供规范性的技术依据和实用工具。 相似文献
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为了解辽宁省某市的奶牛布鲁氏菌病（简称奶牛布病）流行现状及该市奶牛布病群间传播风险因素,开展本研究。对该市辖区内所有奶牛进行布鲁氏菌病的普查,获知该市奶牛布病的表观个体血清流行率和表观群血清流行率;采用问卷调查方式进一步开展病例-对照研究,初步筛选出14项该市奶牛布病群间传播可能风险因素,经相关性检验结合生物学知识,选取了5个变量进入多因素分析,最终通过非条件logistic回归方法初步建立了该市奶牛布病群间传播风险因素回归模型,并建立ROC曲线计算了模型的预测概率。研究结果显示,该市奶牛个体流行率为0.99%,群流行率12.44%。非条件logistic回归分析结果显示,该市奶牛布病群间传播的风险因素包括：“无专用购销车辆”（OR=3.57,95%CI：1.04-12.5,p =0.04）,“进圈时不穿专用工作服和胶靴”（OR=5.0,95%CI：0.97-25.00,p =0.06）,“与犬混养”（OR=12.39,95%CI：0.97-157.56,p=0.05）。该结果表明与犬混养可能是该市奶牛布病群间传播重要的风险因素,而奶牛销售时自有购销专用车辆和场内生物安全措施的采取如进圈穿专用工作服可使奶牛布病在场群间传播的风险降低。针对回归模型建立的ROC曲线下面积为71.6%,表明此模型解释该市奶牛布病群间传播风险的能力为中等。 相似文献
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近年来,我国开始大力发展牛羊养殖业,规模逐渐增大,牛羊疾病也随之频繁发生。本文以布病为例,布病也叫做布鲁氏菌病,其主要发生在人和动物之间,因此属于人畜共患病的一种,且传染性极高,一旦发生将会给养殖户带来很大损失,因此一定要重视开展这一疾病的防控工作。1牛羊布病流行传播的风险1.1对外来牲畜没有进行严格的检测为了更好地对牛羊布病进行有效防控,首先,应该对这一疾病的流行传播风险有全面认识,只有对这些存在的风险和其问题有了基本掌握,才能从中提出有针对性的措施来开展防控工作。 相似文献
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正近年来,科尔沁区人畜共患传染病疫情有所抬头,部分地区炭疽、布病等人畜共患病暴发疫情时有发生,对人民群众身体健康和生命安全构成严重威胁,对我区经济和社会发展构成不利影响。然而,人畜共患病它是如何传播的?人们该采取哪些预防措施?警惕人畜共患病,关键是要有防护意识,控制疾病关键在于防病,现将预防控制人畜共患病基本知识概括如下。一、布鲁氏菌病(简称布病)帀布病是由布鲁氏菌引起的人 相似文献
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中国高致病性禽流感免疫预防风险评估 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
疫苗接种是当前我国预防和控制HPAI疫情的有效手段之一.由于影响HPAI免疫预防效果的因素众多,会给免疫预防带来风险.对这些风险因子进行识别,并系统分析其所引起的风险程度的高低,进而采取针对性的风险管理措施,能有效提高免疫预防的效果.本研究首次运用层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP）构建了HPAI免疫预防风险评估模型,通过确定风险因子权重,依权重大小对风险因子进行排序,确定风险等级.分析结果表明：管理不良、接种操作不规范、实验室监测等是我国免疫预防的高风险因素.通过对免疫预防风险进行综合分析,为HPAI免疫预防管理和决策提供了科学依据. 相似文献
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本文首先对新疆地区牛羊布病对检测方法进行简单介绍，重点对布病流行的调查情况进行详细分析，在此基础上对布病防控的相关风险因素进行评估分析，同时体会粗有效的防控建议，希望通过本文的研究能够提高新疆地区在牛羊布病防控方面的水平，也为后期更好的分析新疆牛羊布病流行传播的风险，研究有效的防控措施提供参考。 相似文献
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为了比较粤北石漠化区域传统治理措施的有效性，本研究通过实地调查并采用层次分析法（AHP），研究了5个石漠化程度和7个传统治理措施；对B层判断矩阵单排序及一致性检验结果发现，潜在石漠化土地和轻度石漠化土地具有轻度生态风险，中度石漠化土地具有中度生态风险，重度和极重度石漠化土地具有强度生态风险；对C层判断矩阵单排序及一致性检验结果发现，不同治理措施对不同石漠化土地的效应不同，石漠化程度越强，治理措施效应越低；治理措施组合权重分析结果显示退耕还林草+人工造林和禁止乱垦滥伐+农村能源建设2项措施对治理粤北石漠化土地具有不可替代的重要性。 相似文献
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Yoko HAYAMA Takehisa YAMAMOTO Sota KOBAYASHI Norihiko MUROGA Toshiyuki TSUTSUI 《The Journal of veterinary medical science / the Japanese Society of Veterinary Science》2015,77(9):1167-1170
The transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Japan was evaluated using a
mathematical FMD transmission model. The distance-based transmission rate between farms,
which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to
calculate the local-level reproduction numbers—expected numbers of secondary infections
caused by one infected farm—for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then
visualized as a risk map. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of
transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of
disease spread. This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is
important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures
against FMD outbreaks. 相似文献
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Sheep scab, caused by the mite Psoroptes ovis, is a notifiable disease in Switzerland. Mandatory prophylactic treatments are carried out in spring for all sheep grazing on common alpine pastures. Despite these strict control measures the number of outbreaks has been increasing in recent years, raising questions on the spread of this epizootic disease. To improve the traditional microscopic diagnosis, we developed an ELISA for the specific determination of antibodies against psoroptic antigens with sensitivity and specificity of 93.7 and 96.5%, respectively. Using this test, a serum bank, representative of the sheep population in Switzerland (approximately 15% of registered sheep flocks, randomly chosen, collected between February and May 1998), was screened. The prevalence using 16,404 sera was 10.4, and 11.9% of the 2083 flocks were diagnosed as positive. Additionally, there was a significant increase found for mean seropositivity relative to the flock size (P<0.001, linear regression). Therefore, larger flocks had a higher risk of sheep scab, which may be caused by more frequent animal movement. Spatial analysis of the results revealed a region with significantly higher risk (relative risk = 3.5, P<0.001) of seropositivity, where no cases have officially been notified in the period between 1997 and 1999. The next goal is to establish an efficient control strategy based on serological monitoring of the total sheep population. 相似文献
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为量化评估我国发生猪瘟的风险,本研究通过分析影响猪瘟发生的风险因素,确定7个风险因素12个子风险因素.遵循指标选择原则,将风险因素按照传染源、传播途径、易感动物3个风险来源归纳为9个风险评估指标,并采取层次分析法、模糊综合评价法和多指标综合评价法,探索构建由评估指标体系、指标权重、评价标准、综合评价函数组成的猪瘟风险评估框架.以西南某地区和华中某地区为例对该框架进行初步验证,风险评估结果为2008年西南某地区和华中某地区均为猪瘟发生高风险地区,风险概率分别为0.91996和0.69332.经与两地区2008年发生猪瘟疫情情况进行比较,表明该框架具有一定的可操作性,评估结果与疫情发生情况具有一定的相关性. 相似文献
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A stochastic partial-budget analysis of an experimental Pasteurella haemolytica feedlot vaccine trial 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A field trial compared a modified Pasteurella haemolytica biotype A serotype 1 leukotoxin vaccine to a commercial vaccine during March-July 1995 in a Natal Midlands, South African, feedlot. Weaners/long weaners purchased by the feedlot were allocated systematically into test vaccine and control vaccine groups of 1241 and 1240 head, respectively, and fed in groups of approximately 200 head. Morbidity and mortality were monitored until the animals were marketed. Details of pleuritis and pneumonia at veterinary meat inspection were recorded for 409 test-vaccinated and 424 control-vaccinated cattle. An increase in morbidity but not mortality risk of respiratory disease was shown between test (13.8% morbidity) and control (11.4% morbidity) groups. Cattle with a processing weight <245 kg were 1.4 times more likely to develop respiratory diseases than cattle with a processing weight > or =245 kg. Cattle bought on auction were 1.6 times more likely to develop respiratory disease than cattle bought at private sales. A partial farm budget incorporating Latin Hypercube sampling of uncertain variables was done to obtain the distribution of possible financial outcomes if the test vaccine were used. Impact (sensitivity) analyses indicated that median weight of carcass cut away had the greatest impact on the profit margin. The partial farm budget highlighted the importance of reducing sub-clinical lesions in a feedlot. 相似文献
16.
Risk factors for disease associated with influenza virus infections during three epidemics in horses
Morley PS Townsend HG Bogdan JR Haines DM 《Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association》2000,216(4):545-550
OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors associated with respiratory tract disease in horses during 3 epidemics caused by influenza virus infections. DESIGN: Cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal observational studies. ANIMALS: 1,163 horses stabled at a Thoroughbred racetrack. PROCEDURES: Investigations were conducted during a 3-year period. An epidemic of respiratory tract disease caused by influenza virus infections was identified in each year. Routine observations and physical examinations were used to classify horses' disease status. Data were analyzed to identify factors associated with development of disease. RESULTS: Results were quite similar among the epidemics. Concentrations of serum antibodies against influenza virus and age were strongly associated with risk of disease; young horses and those with low antibody concentrations had the highest risk of disease. Calculation of population attributable fractions suggested that respiratory tract disease would have been prevented in 25% of affected horses of all horses had high serum antibody concentrations prior to exposure. However, recent history of vaccination was not associated with reduction in disease risk. Exercise ponies had greater risk of disease than racehorses, which was likely attributable to frequent horse-to-horse contact. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Particular attention should be paid to young horses, those with low serum antibody concentrations, and horses that have frequent contact with other horses when designing and implementing control programs for respiratory tract disease caused by influenza virus infections. It appears that control programs should not rely on the efficacy of commercial vaccines to substantially reduce the risk of disease caused by influenza virus infections. 相似文献
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隐孢子虫病是由隐孢子虫(Cryptosporidium)寄生于人类、家养动物及多种野生动物胃肠道引起的一种严重的人畜共患胃肠疾病。该病不但威胁人类健康,亦严重影响畜牧业发展。近年来随着研究的深入,隐孢子虫的流行表现出许多新的特点,危害远远超出了人们的估计。这些特点主要表现在：感染家畜,增加人类感染风险;与动物其他病原混合感染危害加重;感染野生动物,具有自然疫源性;感染海洋和水生动物,造成水体污染;经水源和食物传播引起人类群体感染;暴发感染对人群危害严重。深入开展隐孢子虫病流行病及防控研究对提高公共卫生水平具有重要意义。 相似文献
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Sprague LD Neubauer H 《Journal of veterinary medicine. B, Infectious diseases and veterinary public health》2004,51(7):305-320
Melioidosis, an infectious disease caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei is an emerging disease with high impact on animals and man. In different animal species, the clinical course varies and delayed diagnosis poses risks for the dissemination of the agent in non-endemic areas. Not only migration and transport of animals around the world but also tourism increases the risk that melioidosis can leave its endemic boundaries and establish itself elsewhere. Detection of the agent is a major challenge, as the agent has to be handled in laboratories of biosafety level 3 and test kits are not yet commercially available. Veterinarians and doctors should be aware of melioidosis not only as an agent of public interest but also in terms of a bioterrorist attack. The aim of this review is to describe the agent, its aetiology, the manifestation in a variety of animal species as well as to describe diagnostic procedures, typing techniques and countermeasures. 相似文献