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中国大陆高致病性禽流感发生风险定量评估 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8
动物疫病风险评估是疫情防控的一个重要环节.本研究利用本实验室所建立的风险评估框架,对中国大陆2 369个县/市2006年1月至12月份高高致病性禽流感(HPAI)发生风险进行了定量评估,并利用疫情数据对评估结果进行了验证.结果显示在3月、4月、10月和11月高风险地区数量多、分布广,在华中、华北、西北和东北均有分布;1月、2月、5月、9月和12月HPAI高风险地区的数量相对较少,1月、2月和12月份主要分布在华南,5月和9月主要分布在华北和东北;6月、7月和8月HPAI高风险地区数量最少,而且分布集中,主要分布在青藏高原地区.通过对2006年疫情与评估结果的相关性分析发现,发生疫情的县/市当月的风险评估结果相对较高.本研究结果表明,HPAI定量风险评估方法对HPAI在大范围内发生风险进行定量评估具有可行性,该方法通过进一步优化可望应用于中国HPAI防控决策方面的研究. 相似文献
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中国高致病性禽流感免疫预防风险评估 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
疫苗接种是当前我国预防和控制HPAI疫情的有效手段之一.由于影响HPAI免疫预防效果的因素众多,会给免疫预防带来风险.对这些风险因子进行识别,并系统分析其所引起的风险程度的高低,进而采取针对性的风险管理措施,能有效提高免疫预防的效果.本研究首次运用层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP）构建了HPAI免疫预防风险评估模型,通过确定风险因子权重,依权重大小对风险因子进行排序,确定风险等级.分析结果表明：管理不良、接种操作不规范、实验室监测等是我国免疫预防的高风险因素.通过对免疫预防风险进行综合分析,为HPAI免疫预防管理和决策提供了科学依据. 相似文献
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为了解渭南市H5亚型和H7亚型高致病性禽流感(HPAI)免疫情况,2020—2022年,随机抽取规模养鸡场和散养户采集血清样品,采用血凝和血凝抑制试验进行禽流感病毒免疫抗体检测,并对检测数据进行统计分析。结果显示:H5亚型HPAI免疫抗体合格率为96.28%,H7亚型HPAI为92.24%;2020年H5亚型HPAI抗体合格率极显著高于H7亚型(P<0.001),2022年H5亚型HPAI抗体合格率显著高于H7亚型(P<0.05);12个区域的H5亚型HPAI抗体合格率为85.00%～100%,H7亚型HPAI抗体合格率为70.48%～98.80%;规模养鸡场、散养户的H5亚型、H7亚型HPAI平均抗体合格率均存在显著性差异(P<0.05)。结果表明,渭南市H5亚型和H7亚型HPAI抗体水平较高,免疫效果较好。建议规模化养鸡场持续做好免疫效果评估,散养户加强免疫主体责任意识,以进一步提升禽流感整体防控水平。 相似文献
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高致病性禽流感(HPAI)必须通过疫苗免疫才可获得免疫预防,而了解本地区鸡、鸭禽流感的免疫抗体水平情况,对减少该类疫病的发生具有重大意义.本文主要对长汀县2014-2016年H5亚型禽流感免疫抗体检测结果进行分析和总结. 相似文献
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高致病性禽流感(HPAI)是唯一能够在短时间内导致世界范围大流行的动物传染病.自2004年1月我国首次报道HPAI病例以来,湖北省2004～2005年连续2年发生了13起HPAI疫情,2006年4月18日经卫生部确认在湖北省境内发生首例人感染HPAI病例,给该省经济发展、社会稳定以及人们身体健康安全造成重大影响.从分析HPAIV病原学特性出发,结合该省HPAI防控工作实际,阐述了HPAI发生与流行基本特点,HPAI防控的公共卫生意义,提出了防控HPAI的基本对策和建议. 相似文献
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中国禽群高致病性禽流感发生状况及其风险预测 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本研究旨在探讨中国高致病性禽流感的发生状况,并对其风险态势进行尝试性的预测。作者在流行病学数据挖掘和模型分析基础上,基于OIE风险评估理论,结合昆虫生态学格局分析和Bernoulli统计模型,对中国2004年以来高致病性禽流感的发生状况及其风险态势进行了分析和预测。结果显示:(1)中国家禽养殖数量大,养殖模式复杂,种类繁多,养殖的区域特征显著,给中国HPAI的防控带来了挑战;(2)中国自2004年发生HPAI以来,疫情发生的时-空连续性强,突出表现在疫情发生的季节、区域和宿主特征明显,提示科学的区域化管理和协作的重要性;(3)在发展态势上,由于区域周边疫情特点和中国禽群养殖及风险管理状况,使得中国局部地区禽群在相当长的一段时间内存在较大的暴露和感染的风险;(4)风险预测上,利用Bernoulli统计模型和信息技术,预测2008年中国禽群在90%的置信区间内最有可能会有2～10起HPAI疫情发生,发生6起左右的高致病性禽流感疫情可能性较大,其中在中国东南部分地区局部区域禽群具有较高的疫情暴露和发生风险。本研究表明中国禽群持续发生HPAI疫情的可能性大,开展基于风险的区划和管理对疫情发生和控制具有积极意义。 相似文献
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影响高致病性禽流感传播的因素众多,增加了免疫预防工作的难度。为了减少防控工作的被动性和盲目性,有必要对这些风险因子进行识别,并形成总体风险评估的标准。本文通过统计分析已发生的高致病性禽流感相关数据,确定了高致病性禽流感发生的主要风险因素,并通过层次分析法确定各风险因素的层内权重和总体权重,从而通过对已发生的高致病性禽流感相关数据的统计分析,结合头脑风暴法,确定高致病性禽流感发生的风险因素,并通过层次分析法确定各风险因素的权重,建立了高致病性禽流感免疫风险评估模型。该模型实现了对国内养殖机构的高致病性禽流感发生风险的定量评价,从而有效地指导有关机构的防控工作。 相似文献
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近期,在韩国、越南、日本、泰国、老挝、巴基斯坦、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚等东南亚国家及我国十几个省份相继爆发高致病性禽流感(High Pathogenic Avian Influenza,HPAI),大批家禽被紧急销毁,我国政府为控制禽流感的流行也投入了大量的人力、物力和财力,禽流感的流行对我国国民经济发展影响巨大.禽流感在短时间内在我国从南到北的十几个省份发生和流行,暴露了我国在禽病防制工作中存在的问题.本文针对当前我国在禽病防制中存在的问题及对策进行探讨. 相似文献
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Risk factors and characteristics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) post-vaccination outbreaks 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 is now endemic in South-East Asia but HPAI control methods differ between countries. A widespread HPAI vaccination campaign that started at the end of 2005 in Viet Nam resulted in the cessation of poultry and human cases, but in 2006/2007 severe HPAI outbreaks re-emerged. In this study we investigated the pattern of this first post-vaccination epidemic in southern Viet Nam identifying a spatio-temporal cluster of outbreak occurrence and estimating spatially smoothed incidence rates of HPAI. Spatial risk factors associated with HPAI occurrence were identified. Medium-level poultry density resulted in an increased outbreak risk (Odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6–18.9) but also climate-vegetation factors played an important role: medium-level normalised difference vegetation indices during the rainy season from May to October were associated with higher risk of HPAI outbreaks (OR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.7–8.1), probably because temporal flooding might have provided suitable conditions for the re-emergence of HPAI by expanding the virus distribution in the environment and by enlarging areas of possible contacts between domestic waterfowl and wild birds. On the other hand, several agricultural production factors, such as sweet potatoes yield, increased buffalo density, as well as increased electricity supply were associated with decreased risk of HPAI outbreaks. This illustrates that preventive control measures for HPAI should include a promotion of low-risk agricultural management practices as well as improvement of the infrastructure in village households. Improved HPAI vaccination efforts and coverage should focus on medium poultry density areas and on the pre-monsoon time period. 相似文献
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Theodore J.D. Knight-Jones Ruth Hauser Doris Matthes Katharina D.C. St?rk 《Veterinary research》2010,41(4)
This study aimed to assess which method of wild waterbird surveillance had the greatest probability of detecting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 during a period of surveillance activity, the cost of each method was also considered. Lake Constance is a major wintering centre for migratory waterbirds and in 2006 it was the site of an HPAI H5N1 epidemic in wild birds. Avian influenza surveillance was conducted using harmonised approaches in the three countries around the lake, Austria, Germany and Switzerland, from 2006–2009. The surveillance consisted of testing birds sampled by the following methods: live birds caught in traps, birds killed by hunters, birds caught in fishing nets, dead birds found by the public and catching live Mute Swans (Cygnus olor); sentinel flocks of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were also used. Scenario tree analysis was performed including sensitivity analysis, followed by assessment of cost-effectiveness. Results indicated that if HPAI H5N1 was present at 1% prevalence and assuming HPAI resulted in bird mortality, sampling dead birds found by the public and sentinel surveillance were the most sensitive approaches despite residual uncertainty over some parameters. The uncertainty over the mortality of infected birds was an influential factor. Sampling birds found dead was most cost-effective, but strongly dependent on mortality and awareness of the public. Trapping live birds was least cost-effective. Based on our results, we recommend that future HPAI H5N1 surveillance around Lake Constance should prioritise sentinel surveillance and, if high mortality is expected, the testing of birds found dead. 相似文献
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S. Karki B. Lupiani C. M. Budke S. Manandhar R. Ivanek 《Zoonoses and public health》2014,61(6):442-448
Kathmandu, Nepal has been classified as a high‐risk area for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) by the Nepali Government. While ducks have an important role in the transmission of avian influenza viruses (AIV), including HPAI, seroprevalence of antibodies to AIV in domestic ducks of Kathmandu has never been assessed. The objectives of this study were (i) to estimate the prevalence of seroconversion to AIV in domestic ducks in major duck‐raising areas of Kathmandu and (ii) to assess the effect of age, sex, presence of swine and the number of ducks on the farm on the carriage of antibodies to AIV in these ducks. From April through July of 2011, a cross‐sectional study was conducted and a total of 310 ducks in the major duck‐raising areas of Kathmandu were sampled. The estimated prevalence of AIV antibodies was 27.2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 24.6–29.5]. Of 62 enrolled farms, 42% had at least one seropositive duck. Half of the enrolled farms also kept pigs of which 52% had at least one seropositive duck. Bivariate analysis indicated association between ducks' seroconversion to AIV and their age, sex and farm size. However, the final multivariable model, after controlling for clustering of ducks within farms, identified age as the only significant risk factor. Based on this model, ducks older than 1 year of age were more likely to be seropositive compared to ducks <6 months of age [odds ratio = 2.17 (1.07–4.39)]. These results provide baseline information about the AIV seroprevalence in domestic ducks in the major duck‐raising areas of Kathmandu and identify a high‐risk group that can be targeted in surveillance activities. Future studies should be conducted to differentiate the subtypes of AIV present among domestic ducks in Kathmandu, with particular interest in the presence of HPAI viruses. 相似文献
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Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 continues to threaten domestic and wild birds, as well as human health. However, the mechanism of spatial transmission of HPAI is still unclear. We analyzed the current distribution of HPAI occurrences based on World Organization for Animal Health reported data from 3049 sites in the world from December 2003 to June 2006, and found that these sites were spaced at distances with a frequency peak of 100–200 km. We built a cellular automata model to simulate the spatial transmission process of HPAI as a function of transmission distance, variance of the transmission distance, infection rate, and transmission times (how many times HPAI transmits from one host to another before suppression). We determined that the transmission distance between HPAI occurrences is approximately 100 km on the basis of historical HPAI occurrences from 2003 to 2006 in both wild and domestic birds. To effectively reduce the long‐distance spreading of HPAI, preventing close contact between domestic birds and waterfowl within a radius of 100 km around HPAI occurrence sites is essential. 相似文献
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Mathilde Paul Saraya Tavornpanich David Abrial Patrick Gasqui Myriam Charras-Garrido Weerapong Thanapongtharm Xiangming Xiao Marius Gilbert Francois Roger Christian Ducrot 《Veterinary research》2010,41(3)
Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained. 相似文献
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高致病性禽流感（highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI）和新城疫（newcastle disease, ND）等烈性传染病对养禽业危害严重,是养禽业需重点防控的疾病,其中HPAI是国家规定的强制免疫疫病。武汉市新洲区为家禽养殖大区,有规模禽场350余家,养殖规模近1140万只。为了解2021年度武汉市新洲区规模养殖场高致病性禽流感和新城疫免疫抗体合格率,武汉市新洲区农业技术推广服务中心连续12个月对辖区内规模鸡场进行蛋样抽检,运用血凝和血凝抑制试验,分别检测了高致病性禽流感H5亚型、H7亚型和新城疫的免疫抗体。结果显示,高致病性禽流感H5亚型、H7亚型和新城疫的整体免疫抗体合格率分别为94.1%、96.4%和88.9%,均达到了农业农村部规定的免疫抗体合格率不低于70.0%的标准。 相似文献