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41.

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.
  相似文献   
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Hepatic myelolipoma incarcerated in a peritoneopericardial diaphragmatic hernia was diagnosed in an 11-year-old, desexed female Persian cat. The cat was initially referred for investigation of tachypnoea and dyspnoea. Peritoneopericardial diaphragmatic hernia is a common incidental finding in cats and is usually asymptomatic. Myelolipoma is an extremely rare benign tumour, composed of extramedullary haematopoietic cells and adipose tissue. Myelolipomas are hypothesised to result from metaplastic alteration, rather than a neoplastic process, although this theory cannot be substantiated. The present case is only the fourth report of such an unusual occurrence in cats and displays significant differences to previous reports. Hepatic entrapment and burgeoning of the mass within the pericardial sac resulted in cardiac tamponade and overt signs of right-sided cardiac failure. Surgical intervention was successful and despite concerns regarding the cat's clinical presentation and the gross appearance of the lesion(s), a good long-term outcome is anticipated.  相似文献   
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An absorbed enzyme immunoassay (EIA) test for Johne's disease in cattle was developed in which absorption of cross-reacting antibodies occurred as a rapid reaction in solution rather than overnight with whole organisms and a subsequent centrifugation step. Total test time was reduced to less than 2 h with a minimum of manipulations. The test was evaluated in cattle herds from Johne's disease-endemic and Johne's disease-free regions of Australia. Specificity was 99.8%. Calculations of sensitivity were affected by the history of the herd under test. However, the EIA detected in excess of 80% of animals before onset of clinical disease and 65% of faecal shedders were EIA positive on, or before, first detection of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis in their faeces. The test should aid epidemiological studies and be a useful tool in the management and control of Johne's disease.  相似文献   
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Infrared spectroscopy and nitrogen analyses suggest that secondary amide groups in protein-like components of soil clay-organic complexes and extracted organic matter decompose above 100°C to yield ammonia which is retained as NH4+ by acid-washed clay-organic complexes. Above about 400°C, other volatile nitrogenous decomposition products are released. Clay surfaces in the clay-organic complexes may catalyse the decomposition.  相似文献   
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Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are major contaminants of indoor air, with concentrations often several times higher than outdoors. They are recognized as causative agents of “building-related illness” or “sick-building syndrome”. Our previous laboratory test-chamber studies have shown that the potted-plant/root-zone microorganism microcosm can eliminate high concentrations of air-borne VOCs within 24 hours, once the removal response has been induced by an initial dose. However, the effectiveness of the potted-plant microcosm in ‘real-world’ indoor spaces has never previously been tested experimentally. This paper reports the results of a field-study on the effects of potted-plant presence on total VOC (TVOC) levels, measured in 60 offices (12 per treatment), over two 5–9 week periods, using three planting regimes, with two ‘international indoor-plant’ species. Fourteen VOCs were identified in the office air. When TVOC loads in reference offices rose above 100 ppb, large reductions, of from 50 to 75% (to <100 ppb), were found in planted offices, under all planting regimes The results indicate that air-borne TVOC levels above a threshold of about 100 ppb stimulate the graded induction of an efficient metabolic VOC-removal mechanism in the microcosm. Follow-up laboratory dose-response experiments, reported in the following paper, confirm the graded induction response, over a wide range of VOC concentrations. The findings together demonstrate that potted-plants can provide an efficient, self-regulating, low-cost, sustainable, bioremediation system for indoor air pollution, which can effectively complement engineering measures to reduce indoor air pollution, and hence improve human wellbeing and productivity.  相似文献   
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To ascertain quantitative estimates of resources at risk for eastern Canada, linkage must be made between geological terrain sensitivity to acid deposition and water chemistry. An evaluation has been made of watershed areas principally in the Province of Quebec to identify and characterize factors related to LRTAP effects. The watershed areas are geographically located within the bounds of the high sulphate deposition zone of the continental plume. To identify specific test watersheds for detailed analysis, alkalinity frequency distributions were computed. A selection of watersheds has been made that spans the Pre-Cambrian shield region of the Laurentian highlands, the St. Lawrence lowlands and the Gaspé Peninsula. There is evidence that areas in the far eastern areas of Quebec, removed from strong anthropogenic sources may be considered as approaching critical levels of alkalinity. Ionic composition for selected watersheds display similar chemical characteristics for regions of diverse geology and soil characteristics. These differences have been assessed in light of the common effects of sulphate deposition.  相似文献   
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