Conversion to organic arable farming in The Netherlands: A dynamic linear programming analysis     

S. Acs  P.B.M. Berentsen  R.B.M. Huirne 《Agricultural Systems》2007

Several studies show that organic farming is more profitable than conventional farming. However, in reality not many farmers convert to organic farming. Policy makers and farmers do not have clear insight into factors which hamper or stimulate the conversion to organic farming. The objective of this paper is to develop a dynamic linear programming model to analyse the effects of different limiting factors on the conversion process of farms over time. The model is developed for a typical arable farm in The Netherlands central clay region, and is based on two static liner programming models (conventional and organic). The objective of the model is to maximise the net present value over a 10-year planning horizon. The results of the analysis of a basic scenario show that conversion to organic farming is more profitable than staying conventional. In order to arrive at the actual profitable phase of organic farming, the farmer has to pass through the economically difficult 2-year conversion period. Sensitivity analysis shows that if depreciation is 25% higher than conventional fixed costs due to machinery made superfluous by conversion, conversion is less profitable than staying conventional. Also the availability of hired labour, which can be constrained in peak periods, has a strong effect on the cropping plan and the amount of area converted. Further analysis shows that a slight drop (2%) in organic prices lowers the labour income of the farmer and makes conversion less profitable than conventional farming. For farmers, a minimum labour income can be required to ‘survive’. The analysis shows that constraint on minimum labour income makes stepwise conversion the best way for farmers to overcome economic difficulties during conversion.  相似文献   

多元线性回归和神经网络在水库调度中的应用比较研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张保生  纪昌明  陈森林 《中国农村水利水电》2004,(7):29-32

采用多元线性回归和改进人工神经网络算法分别建立水库多目标调度函数，并进行实例计算验证。通过比较分析，表明人工神经网络的非线性映射能力能够更好地反映水库调度中多个自变量和因变量之间的复杂关系，具有较高的模拟精度和较好的可行性，且应用简便。  相似文献   

Different Influencing Factors for Risk of Falls Between Men and Women while Descending from Mount Fuji     

《The Forestry Chronicle》2023,34(2):143-152

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奶牛体型线性鉴定应用的探讨     

邹木兰  金尔光 《华中农业大学学报》1992,11(3):268-275

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泌乳期中国荷斯坦牛转化孕酮浓度的影响因素分析及其表型预测     

曾治钦  娄文琦  许静漪  马烨桦  张永福  任小丽  陈少侃  闫磊  郭刚  张震  王雅春 《中国畜牧兽医》2023,50(1):186-197

【目的】本研究基于试验测定的中国荷斯坦牛血液和乳汁中的孕酮浓度表型，探究了影响中国荷斯坦牛体内孕酮分泌的环境因素、孕酮浓度的变化趋势、孕酮浓度与乳成分的关联程度以及血乳中孕酮浓度的预测方法。【方法】试验于2021年8月在北京、山东两个牧场采集不同胎次、泌乳阶段和妊娠状态的中国荷斯坦泌乳牛的奶样、尾根血样，测定孕酮浓度，最终获得402条乳汁孕酮浓度和298条血液孕酮浓度表型用于数据分析。对孕酮浓度进行数据转化使其近似服从正态分布后，采用固定效应模型探究胎次、泌乳阶段、妊娠状态、牧场等固定效应对奶牛孕酮表型的影响，运用R语言cor函数计算孕酮与各乳成分间的关联，并利用偏最小二乘法和个体及乳成分信息对孕酮浓度进行预测，以建立孕酮浓度表型高通量获取手段。【结果】妊娠状态对转化乳汁孕酮浓度存在极显著影响（P<0.01），胎次、场效应对转化乳汁孕酮浓度均有显著影响（P<0.05），而转化血液孕酮浓度只受到妊娠状态影响（P<0.01）；全乳固体、乳脂率、乳蛋白率、脂蛋比与转化乳血孕酮浓度均存在显著或极显著的正相关关系（r=0.14~0.37，P<0.05；P<0.01）；基于本试验数据，乳成分与个体信息对转化乳血孕酮浓度的预测准确性不高（R²=0.030~0.17），但如果增加血液或乳汁的转化孕酮浓度对乳汁或血液的转化孕酮浓度进行预测，预测效果则有大幅提升（R²=0.40）。【结论】影响泌乳期中国荷斯坦牛转化孕酮浓度的因素除妊娠状态外，可能还包括饲养条件与胎次。此外转化孕酮浓度与乳脂率、乳蛋白率等乳成分呈极显著相关。基于乳成分信息与转化孕酮的关系，获得了对中国荷斯坦牛乳血转化孕酮浓度预测的可用策略，为今后牧场的繁殖辅助管理、奶牛育种新性状研发以及孕酮浓度的高通量获取等提供了新思路。  相似文献   

Discrimination between Japanese and Chinese Products using trace elements concentration of kernel in pickled Japanese apricot     

《Soil Science and Plant Nutrition》2013,59(1)

pp. 875–880

The trace-element composition of kernel in pickled Japanese apricot (Prunus mume Sieb. et Zucc.) was determined using an inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer in order to distinguish between Japanese products and Chinese products.

Strontium and barium concentrations in the kernels of Chinese products were 10 or more times those of the Japanese ones. When based on 8.0 mg kg^?1 of strontium concentration in kernel, 93.2% of sample was distinguished as Japanese products or Chinese ones.

Applying principal component analysis using 9 elements (Mn, Zn, Fe, Ni, Ba, Sr, Cu, Co, Cr), the pickled Japanese apricots tend to separate into two countries. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) using 9 elements allowed a reasonable classification of pickled Japanese apricots according to the country of production.

The result of the analysis of K-nearest neighbors (KNN) was better than that of LDA.  相似文献   

中国产业结构优化升级引致的城镇化效应研究——一个省级面板分位数模型的实证检验     

肖功为  贺翀 《湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2013,(5):90-94

基于2000~2011年我国省级面板数据，采用面板分位数计量模型考察了产业结构引致的城镇化效应。研究发现，第三产业份额的估计参数显著为正，说明产业结构优化带来的城镇化效应是存在的。同时，这种效应对于处于不同分位数上的地区有较大差异：第三产业份额适中的省（市、自治区），城镇化效应最为明显；第三产业份额相对过高或过低的省（市、自治区），产业结构优化带来的城镇化效应较弱，估计参数呈现“两头小、中间大”的结果，显著、稳健为“倒U型”结构。  相似文献   

基于PCA-ARIMA模型的高血压发病率预测     

马亮亮 《张家口农专学报》2013,(2):26-29

目的高血压发病率是政府和相关医学工作者预防和监测高血压的重要依据之一。方法利用主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)对因子进行线性筛选,获得保留因子后利用ARIMA进行建模预测,即为PCA-ARIMA多维时间序列组合预测模型。结果高血压发病率的拟合与独立预测结果表明,PCA-ARIMA优于PCA-MLR、ARIMA等参比模型。结论本文提出的基于主成分分析和ARIMA模型(PCA-ARIMA模型)的建模有助于提高模型的预测精度。  相似文献   

From shallow to deep waters: habitats used by larval lampreys (genus Petromyzon and Lampetra) over a western European basin     

Catherine Taverny  Isabelle Ortusi  Charles Roqueplo  Mario Lepage  Patrick Lambert 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2012,21(1):87-99

Abstract –  Habitat requirements of lamprey ammocoetes (Petromyzon marinus and Lampetra genus) were investigated, for the first time, from shallow to deep waters, at different spatial scales across the Gironde‐Dordogne continuum, thanks to a water suction dredge. Fish‐habitat relationships were assessed through two complementary statistical analyses: habitat‐use curves and habitat suitability models using the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) technique. Analyses were performed on a small‐size data set that was characterised by the low prevalence of lamprey. The sea lamprey larvae occurred in deeper areas than their Lampetra genus counterparts. ‘Pools’ of 2 m’ depth and more were optimal habitats for the former species. Among the environmental variables retained to model lamprey occurrences, the mesohabitat (a categorical variable) was demonstrated to be highly influential, in terms of fine grain‐size substratum and vegetation cover. These preliminary results suggest that monitoring using the water suction dredge method may contribute to sea lamprey conservation.  相似文献   

Spatial optimization by simulated annealing and linear programming     

《Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research》2012,27(4):390-402

Forest management planning comprises selection among treatment alternatives in management units. A traditional linear programming (LP) approach may effectively account for a profit maximization objective combined with sustainability constraints, e.g. on the temporal distribution of harvest volume flows, cash‐flow, and net present value development, but it fails to account for spatial constraints, especially those associated with final felling. By applying a simulated annealing adjacency model based on net present value maximization and combined with an LP consequence computation model, it is possible to delineate optimal strategies of final felling scheduling. Evaluation is made of the trade‐off between (1) the incremental cost (determined by use of the LP model) of an optimal adjacency model solution, and (2) the potential damage cost resulting from adjacency characteristics such as windthrow and bark injuries. The decision support system may contribute significantly to reduce damage costs and may improve the reliability of forest management planning.  相似文献