Research and application of real-time monitoring and early warning thresholds for multi-temporal agricultural products information          下载免费PDF全文

XU Shi-wei  WANG Yu  WANG Sheng-wei  LI Jian-zheng 《农业科学学报》2020,19(10):2582-2596

Monitoring and early warning is an important means to effectively prevent risks in agricultural production, consumption and price. In particular, with the change of modes of national administration against the background of big data, improving the capacity to monitor agricultural products is of great significance for macroeconomic decision-making. Agricultural product information early warning thresholds are the core of agricultural product monitoring and early warning. How to appropriately determine the early warning thresholds of multi-temporal agricultural product information is a key question to realize real-time and dynamic monitoring and early warning. Based on the theory of abnormal fluctuation of agricultural product information and the research of substantive impact on the society, this paper comprehensively discussed the methods to determine the thresholds of agricultural product information fluctuation in different time dimensions. Based on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBSC) and survey data, this paper used a variety of statistical methods to determine the early warning thresholds of the production, consumption and prices of agricultural products. Combined with Delphi expert judgment correction method, it finally determined the early warning thresholds of agricultural product information in multiple time, and carried out early warning analysis on the fluctuation of agricultural product monitoring information in 2018. The results show that:(1) the daily, weekly and monthly monitoring and early warning thresholds of agricultural products play an important early warning role in monitoring abnormal fluctuations with agricultural products;(2) the multi-temporal monitoring and early warning thresholds of agricultural product information identified by the research institute can provide effective early warning on current abnormal fluctuation of agricultural product information, provide a benchmarking standard for China's agricultural production, consumption and price monitoring and early warning at the national macro level, and further improve the application of China's agricultural product monitoring and early warning.  相似文献   

Post‐infection activities of fungicides against Cercospora arachidicola of peanut (Arachis hypogaea)     

Robert C. Johnson  Emily G. Cantonwine 《Pest management science》2014,70(8):1202-1206

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李早丰优质高效栽培技术     

王书增  魏红  吴俊民 《河北林果研究》1998,13(4):352-354

选用大石早生、美丽李、墨宝石等优良品种及基径１ｃｍ以上的优质壮苗，按（２～４）ｍ×４ｍ的株行距，在严格整地的基础上，以秋栽加地膜覆盖的方法栽植，栽后配合施基肥、追肥、叶面喷肥，养成开心形或双层开心形树形，加强疏花疏果和病虫害防治等，是李早丰优质高效栽培的主要技术措施。  相似文献   

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冯霄汉 《北方园艺》2011,(5):31-32

在大连地区,以西洋梨品种Spalding为试材,采用初冬播种、早春顶凌播种和温室营养钵育苗3种不同方式育苗,研究早春最佳育苗技术。结果表明:早春顶凌播种在成苗率和平均苗高方面略高于温室营养钵育苗,但明显高于初冬播种;早春顶凌播种在苗木质量方面明显优于另外2种方式,并且错开农时,节省大量人、财、物。  相似文献   

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郭万正  孙华  刘贵生  李良华  武华玉  宋忠旭  郭锐  黎丽荣  梅书棋 《湖北农业科学》2009,48(7)

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黄柳色 《现代农业科学》2009,(3):102-103

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蔡荣溪 《耕作与栽培》2014,(2):64-65

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Carrasco N  Arzul I  Berthe FC  Furones MD 《Journal of fish diseases》2008,31(2):153-157

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张广宏  曹亚锋 《陕西林业科技》2009,(4):106-108

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何松华  张长沙  张军 《湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,38(5):59-63

证券市场危机的爆发是系统内外诸多因素共同作用的结果。界定证券市场危机状态的临界状态，选择宏观、微观和市场三层次指标，利用Logistic回归方法构建证券市场危机预警模型。对中国证券市场进行实证研究，发现模型能够比较准确地预测证券市场危机发生的概率，及时迅捷地释放预警信号。  相似文献