Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016          下载免费PDF全文

Jian-zhai WU  Jing ZHANG  Zhang-ming GE  Li-wei XING  Shu-qing HAN  Chen SHEN  Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.  相似文献   

青藏高原地区积雪变化及特征分析     

张旭 《现代农业科技》2021,8(8)

利用我国高原地区1963-2002年的逐月积雪日数资料,以及1972-2011年的格点积雪月频率资料,分析、对比了两种资料在该地区的时空演变特征。结果表明：同时段的(1972-2002)站点资料与格点资料相比,空间分布其高值区与积雪日数增值区均偏西北,偏北程度大致为3~4°,偏西程度大致为2~3°,且中心更为明显。在青藏高原西侧(85°E以西),积雪日数呈整体下降趋势。两种资料的积雪日数EOF分析存在一定的偏差,这与其对应的空间分布差异及气候趋势空间分布存在的偏差相吻合。  相似文献   

基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征     

李宁  白蕤  李玮  陈淼  杨桂生  陈歆  范长华  张文 《中国农业气象》2021,42(6):447

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。  相似文献   

Molecular investigation on the presence of canine parvovirus in Egypt     

《Comparative immunology, microbiology and infectious diseases》2021

Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) causes a highly contagious gastroenteritis disease of dogs and wild canids. To investigate the CPV-2 prevalence in Dakahlia Governorate, Egypt, a total of 50 fecal swabs were collected from suspected diseased dogs during 2016–2017. Out of 50 collected samples, 35 samples (70 %) presented positive results for CPV-2 using immuno-chromatography (IC) as a rapid test. CPV-2DNA was detected in 42 samples (84 %) by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The frequencies of CPV-2 were significantly higher in German shepherd breed (46 %; 23/50) and in age groups less than 6 months (76%; 38/50). We evaluated the breed, age, sex, rapid test results and clinical signs as predictors for classification of animal status into infected and not infected. The best predictors for classification process were rapid test result and clinical signs. Both CPV-2b and CPV-2c subtypes were detected by CPV2-VP2 gene sequences analysis. Deduced amino acid sequences alignment showed substitutions at 3 sites (Arg453Pro, Ala574Glu and Gln457Leu). Further investigations are needed to reveal the genetic and antigenic relation between field and vaccinal strains of CPV-2 in Egypt.  相似文献   

白云国家森林公园适老性评价及优化分析     

丁学旦  倪嘉晨  吴霆俊  胡牮 《绿色科技》2020,(5):47-51

指出了人口老龄化是社会发展的必然趋势,也是当前中国面临的重要社会问题之一,国家和地方各级政府出台了一系列政策,切实保障老年人的权益。森林公园除保护其范围内自然环境和自然资源外,为人们的游憩、疗养、避暑和文化娱乐等提供了良好的环境,逐渐成为老年人休闲娱乐生活的选择。选取浙江丽水白云国家森林公园为研究对象,通过实地踏查、问卷调查和随机访谈等方法,深入调查了老年人个人基本资料及背景、活动状况和使用情况,对3类典型空间和4类景观元素进行了详细地分析,针对不足之处提出了相应的优化建议,以期为相关公园绿地的适老性规划设计提供建设思路。  相似文献   

稻曲病菌交配型基因MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8的特性分析     

雍明丽  于俊杰  曹慧娟  俞咪娜  潘夏艳  宋天巧  刘永锋 《植物病理学报》2021,51(1):19-29

 有性生殖在真菌的生活史和进化过程中具有重要作用,而交配型基因是控制有性生殖的关键因子。前期研究发现稻曲病菌(Villosiclava virens)MAT1-2型菌株中包含MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8两个交配型基因,但是它们如何调控稻曲病菌有性生殖依然不清楚。本文研究了它们在不同侵染和生长发育时期的表达模式和编码的蛋白结构特性。研究表明MAT1-2-1在侵染不同阶段一直下调表达;而MAT1-2-8在侵染早期(5 dpi)上调表达,在侵染后期下调表达。与营养菌丝阶段比较,MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8在有性发育过程菌核形成、菌核萌发、子座原基形成和子座成熟4个阶段的表达量都是下降的,在菌核形成阶段表达量最低。生物信息学分析显示MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8具有磷酸化位点,为非分泌蛋白,无明显的跨膜结构域。蛋白同源比对分析表明MAT1-2-1与香柱菌(Epichloë typhina)的MAT1-2-1同源性最高,而MAT1-2-8与绿僵菌(Metarhizium)的MBR_08192蛋白同源性最高。进一步研究发现MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8能够互作,并分别主要定位在细胞核和细胞基质中。通过质谱技术鉴定到MAT1-2-1的一些候选互作蛋白,如假定Ran交换因子Prp20/Pim1(KDB12229.1)、假定rRNA处理蛋白Ebp2(KDB12923.1)及组蛋白H1(KDB12711.1)等。因此,以上结果为研究稻曲病菌交配型基因MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8调控有性生殖的生物学功能奠定了基础。  相似文献   

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究     

李蒙  黄玮  周建琴  马思源  杨鹏武 《中国农学通报》2021,37(34):103-111

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。  相似文献   

基于BP神经网络的人机联合率定SWMM研究     

桂晗亮  张春萍  武治国 《中国农村水利水电》2021,(3)

为解决雨洪管理模型(SWMM)在率定过程中参数复杂、过程繁琐等问题。以西宁市某地块为例建立SWMM模型,利用Morris筛选法进行参数灵敏度分析,并根据灵敏度分析的结果进行人工率定;另外利用BP神经网络对模型进行率定,并结合参数灵敏度对其进行优化。对3种率定方案进行分析,结果表明:水文水力模块参数的相对灵敏度基本一致,其中灵敏度较大的参数为子汇水区面积(Area)、不透水率(Imperv)和不透水区洼地蓄积量(Destore-Imperv),并且不同降雨条件下模型参数的灵敏度存在差异。经过优化后的BP神经网络参数率定方法的模型模拟效果最好,纳什系数最大。结合灵敏度优化BP神经网络的人机联合率定方法一方面能提高BP神经网络率定的准确性,另一方面又能提高传统人工率定的效率。  相似文献   

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测     

王文权  张玉霄 《世界竹藤通讯》2021,19(6):21

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。  相似文献   

Beaver dams,streamflow complexity,and the distribution of a rare minnow,Lepidomeda copei          下载免费PDF全文

Daniel C. Dauwalter  John D. Walrath 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2018,27(2):606-616

Freshwater fishes are threatened globally, and often too little is known about threatened species to effectively guide their conservation. Habitat complexity is linked to fish species diversity and persistence, and degraded streams often lack habitat complexity. Beaver Castor spp., in turn, have been used to restore streams and increase habitat complexity. The northern leatherside chub Lepidomeda copei is a rare, small‐bodied, drift‐feeding minnow that has anecdotally been observed to use complex habitats associated with beaver dams in the western United States. To investigate this anecdote, we conducted fish and habitat surveys, the latter focusing on quantifying habitat complexity, in a sub‐basin of the Upper Snake River Basin in the USA. Complementary generalised linear model and path analyses revealed that northern leatherside chub occurred more often at sites with complex streamflows, and streamflows were more complex when beaver dams were present and pools were deeper. Northern leatherside chubs were also more likely to occur when temperatures were warmer, aquatic macrophytes were abundant and stream channels were narrow and deep. The linkage between chubs, complex streamflows and beaver dams needs to be evaluated more broadly to completely understand its role in the rangewide status of the species. However, it does suggests that increased use of beaver reintroductions and dam analogues for stream restoration could be a boon for the northern leatherside chub, but such efforts should be monitored to determine their effectiveness to help adapt beaver‐based restoration approaches to best benefit the species.  相似文献