Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016          下载免费PDF全文

Jian-zhai WU  Jing ZHANG  Zhang-ming GE  Li-wei XING  Shu-qing HAN  Chen SHEN  Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.  相似文献   

基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征     

李宁  白蕤  李玮  陈淼  杨桂生  陈歆  范长华  张文 《中国农业气象》2021,42(6):447

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。  相似文献   

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究     

李蒙  黄玮  周建琴  马思源  杨鹏武 《中国农学通报》2021,37(34):103-111

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。  相似文献   

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测     

王文权  张玉霄 《世界竹藤通讯》2021,19(6):21

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。  相似文献   

Comparison of the microbial communities of alpacas and sheep fed diets with three different ratios of corn stalk to concentrate     

Ruimin Chao  Chengqiang Xia  Caixia Pei  Wenjie Huo  Qiang Liu  Chunxiang Zhang  Youshe Ren 《Journal of animal physiology and animal nutrition》2021,105(1):26-34

The objective of this study was to investigate the characteristics of ruminal microbial communities of alpacas (Lama pacos) and sheep (Ovis aries) fed three diets with varying ratios of roughage (corn stalk) to concentrate, 3:7 (LS), 5:5 (MS) and 7:3 (HS). Six alpacas (one-year-old and weighing 29.5 ± 7.1 kg) and six sheep (one-year-old and weighing 27.9 ± 2.7 kg) were used in this study, in a replicated 3 × 3 Latin square experiment. Total protozoa concentration was determined under the microscope; total fungi and methanogens were assessed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction and expressed as a percentage of total bacterial 16S rRNA gene copies; bacterial communities were investigated by targeted 16S rRNA gene (V3–V4 region) sequencing. The percentage of fungi was significantly higher in alpacas than in sheep under the LS diet, while the concentration of protozoa was significantly lower in alpacas under HS, MS and LS diets. The alpha diversity including Shannon, Chao l and ACE indices of bacterial communities was higher in alpacas than in sheep, under the LS diet. A total of 299 genera belonging to 22 phyla were observed in the forestomach of alpaca and sheep, with Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes dominating both animal species. Phyla Armatimonadetes and Fusobacteria, as well as 64 genera, were detected only in alpacas, whereas phyla Acidobacteria and Nitrospira, as well as 44 genera, were found only in sheep. The abundance of cellulolytic bacteria, including Butyrivibrio and Pseudobutyrivibrio, was higher in alpacas than in sheep under all three diets. These differences in the forestomach microbial communities partly explained why alpacas displayed a higher poor-quality roughage digestibility, and a lower methane production. Results also revealed that the adverse effects of high-concentrate diets (70%) were lesser in alpacas than in sheep.  相似文献   

Studies on Tomato Seedling Quality Indices Under Simulated Shipping and Storage Conditions     

NING Wei  GE Xiao-guang  LI Tian-lai 《中国农业科学(英文版)》2004,3(12)

Indices of the tomato seedling quality maintenance level after production before field planting were studied through simulated experiments, small--scale operation, indoor analyses and measurements, and field observation. The results showed that under simulated shipping and storage conditions, seedling quality change following different durations (days) of shipping and storage was correlated significantly or even very significantly with certain physiological and morphological indices. With various measured indices following different periods of shipping and storage treatment subjected to multinomial successive regressive correlation analysis, the principal factors influencing seedling quality maintenance level are identified to be chlorophyll content→dry short weight→ leaf freshness index in order of their importance. Significance analysis with multinomial fitted equation indicated that correlations between any one of above three factors and the growth index after field planting reached very significant difference level.  相似文献   

湟源县草地资源基本特点及开发利用     

殷咸芳  刘志林 《青海草业》2001,10(4):21-22,15

湟源县草地面积有 85 1 85 .1 3hm2 ,占全县土地总面积的 5 6.45 % ,草地资源丰富 ,牧草种类较多 ,农业生产秸秆来源广泛 ,但由于利用不当 ,造成了草地严重破坏和秸秆的浪费 ,如何合理利用草地和秸秆资源 ,扼制草地退化 ,是促进该县畜牧业发展的重要因素  相似文献   

两株新分离的APMV-I毒株感染SPF鸡的超微病理变化     

袁莉民  王永坤  朱国强  郁斌 《畜牧兽医学报》2004,35(5):565-569

将APMV-I鹅源分离株YG97鸡源分离株Y98和NDV强毒株F48E8感染SPF鸡，运用透射电镜观察该2株病毒分离株对机体细胞的影响，结果显示3株禽副黏病毒均引起机体肝、胰、脾、肾、心、胃、十二指肠和直肠等实质器官组织细胞的超微病变，如黏膜上皮细胞多处受损，表面微绒毛脱落；实质细胞核固缩、凝聚、凹陷、核多形性，线粒体嵴断裂、空泡样变、膜溶解，粗面内质网扩张、囊泡变，细胞浆的囊泡内及细胞浆内存在有囊膜的成熟病毒粒子等，但YG97和Y98对不同实质器官的组织细胞超微病变程度不一：胃、肝、胰、脾、肾超微病变比心脏的超微病变严重。电镜观察结果还表明：3株禽副黏病毒引起宿主细胞的超微病变有2种形式：坏死性病变和凋亡性病变。  相似文献   

中西药结合预防肉鸡腹水综合征的临床试及防治机理探讨     

杨慧萍  岳治权  王建华 《中国家禽》2004,8(Z1):69-71

将一日龄艾维因肉仔鸡(雌雄各半)180只在同一舍内饲养,14日龄时将其随机分成4组,其中Ⅰ、Ⅱ组饲料按1％分别添加我们研制的方剂一和方剂二,连续用药15d,为药物预防组;Ⅲ组在饲料中按0.05％添加肾肿腹水消,连用7d(药品要求的预防剂量),为药物对照组;Ⅳ组饲料中不添加任何药物,为空白对照组。Ⅰ-Ⅳ组发病率分别为0、10％、3％和20％,42d时Ⅰ、Ⅳ组体重高于其它组,Ⅰ平均体重为1972.92g,Ⅳ组平均体重为1989.91g。试验表明方剂一为该试验条件下预防肉鸡腹水综合征最有效的方剂,其保护率可达100％,且不影响出栏重。对方剂一预防肉鸡腹水综合征的机理进行探讨。  相似文献   

主体意识的归隐 显现与本质寻求——意识形态的质性裂变     

宋晓杰 《信阳农业高等专科学校学报》2004,14(2):65-67

随着意识形态理论的发展,意识形态的所指已经发生了实质性的功能性裂变。它的发生逻辑隐含了主体意识的无意识的归隐与自为的显现,而主体意识与意识形态的本质寻求无论是隐匿性的暗示或遮蔽性的深层所指,都与意识形态的功能性机制及社会历史性的存在状况具备极强的内在一致性。  相似文献