Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016          下载免费PDF全文

Jian-zhai WU  Jing ZHANG  Zhang-ming GE  Li-wei XING  Shu-qing HAN  Chen SHEN  Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.  相似文献   

基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征     

李宁  白蕤  李玮  陈淼  杨桂生  陈歆  范长华  张文 《中国农业气象》2021,42(6):447

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。  相似文献   

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究     

李蒙  黄玮  周建琴  马思源  杨鹏武 《中国农学通报》2021,37(34):103-111

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。  相似文献   

马尾松叶表微生物多样性     

袁贵云  孙学广  郑炀  郭其强  丁贵杰 《森林与环境学报》2021,(3):318-324

为发掘对林木生长发育有利的优良微生物资源,并筛选适合叶表微生物的收集方法,以马尾松针叶为试验材料,分别用悬摇法和超声波法收集马尾松叶表微生物,用扩增子高通量测序技术、MUSCLE和Qiime软件研究马尾松叶表微生物的多样性。结果表明:扫描电镜观测结果显示,马尾松针叶表面定殖有大量微生物,包括真菌(菌丝及孢子)和细菌。扩增子高通量测序结果表明,马尾松叶表微生物物种丰富,包含细菌运算分类单位(OTUs)490个,真菌OTUs 1273个。马尾松叶表细菌以未分类的蓝细菌属(unidentified_Cyanobacteria)(36.53%)、未分类的拜叶林克氏菌属(unidentified_Beijerinckia)(28.60%)、鞘氨醇单胞菌属(Sphingomonas)(2.35%)为优势属;叶表真菌以枝孢属(Cladosporium)(2.45%)、拟盘多毛孢属(Pestalotiopsis)(0.92%)、无头孢菌属(Capnobotryella)(0.91%)为优势属。针对叶表细菌多样性的研究表明,悬摇法和超声波法均有较高的物种检出度;在叶表真菌多样性的研究中超声波法优于悬摇法,但超声波法样品间数据变异性较大,测定结果不稳定。  相似文献   

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测     

王文权  张玉霄 《世界竹藤通讯》2021,19(6):21

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。  相似文献   

黑果枸杞茎叶生长及其生态化学计量特征对灌水施肥的响应   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李发奎  李金霞  孙小妹  陈年来 《干旱区研究》2020,(2):452-461

在石羊河中游田间条件下,通过灌水和施肥调节黑果枸杞生长。测定不同时期黑果枸杞茎、叶生长量及其化学计量学特征变化,分析器官水平生长速率与化学计量学特征的关系,验证生态化学计量学理论"生长速率假说"。灌水施肥显著促进了茎长、基径和叶片长、宽及叶干重的生长(P<0.05),而茎长、基径、叶面积和叶干重的相对生长速率与对照之间无显著差异。各处理下黑果枸杞新梢C含量及C∶N、C∶P随生育期进程呈增加趋势,而N、P及N∶P呈降低趋势;灌水和施肥处理后茎C含量及C∶N、C∶P、N∶P低于对照,茎N、P含量高于对照。各处理叶片C、N、P含量在生育期内呈降低趋势,而C∶N、C∶P及N∶P呈增加趋势;灌水和施肥后叶片C含量及C∶N、C∶P、N∶P低于对照,叶片N、P含量高于对照。茎C含量及C∶N、C∶P显著高于叶片(P<0.05),而N、P含量及N∶P显著低于叶片(P<0.05)。生长速率假说认为,生物个体的生长速率与体内的N∶P、C∶P具有负相关关系,与N、P含量呈显著的正相关关系。各处理黑果枸杞茎、叶的生长速率与其N、P含量及C∶P、N∶P总体相关性不显著。表明施肥灌水调节下黑果枸杞茎叶生长及化学计量学特征不支持生长速率假说。  相似文献   

Determination of critical nitrogen dilution curve based on leaf area index for winter wheat in the Guanzhong Plain,Northwest China     

Sheng-cai QIANG  Fu-cang ZHANG  Miles Dyck  Yan ZHANG  You-zhen XIANG  Jun-liang FAN 《农业科学学报》2019,18(10):2369-2380

Excessive use of nitrogen(N) fertilizers in agricultural systems increases the cost of production and risk of environmental pollution. Therefore, determination of optimum N requirements for plant growth is necessary. Previous studies mostly established critical N dilution curves based on aboveground dry matter(DM) or leaf dry matter(LDM) and stem dry matter(SDM), to diagnose the N nutrition status of the whole plant. As these methods are time consuming, we investigated the more rapidly determined leaf area index(LAI) method to establish the critical nitrogen(N_c) dilution curve, and the curve was used to diagnose plant N status for winter wheat in Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China. Field experiments were conducted using four N fertilization levels(0, 105, 210 and 315 kg ha-1) applied to six wheat cultivars in the 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 growing seasons. LAI, DM, plant N concentration(PNC) and grain yield were determined. Data points from four cultivars were used for establishing the N_c curve and data points from the remaining two cultivars were used for validating the curve. The N_c dilution curve was validated for N-limiting and non-N-limiting growth conditions and there was good agreement between estimated and observed values. The N nutrition index(NNI) ranged from 0.41 to 1.25 and the accumulated plant N deficit(N_(and)) ranged from 60.38 to –17.92 kg ha~(-1) during the growing season. The relative grain yield was significantly affected by NNI and was adequately described with a parabolic function. The N_c curve based on LAI can be adopted as an alternative and more rapid approach to diagnose plant N status to support N fertilization decisions during the vegetative growth of winter wheat in Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China.  相似文献   

Effects of Artificial Warming from Late-Winter to Early-Spring on Photosynthesis and Flag Leaf Senescence of Winter Wheat     

YAN Peng  SUN XiaoNuo  DU Xiong  GAO Zhen  BIAN DaHong 《中国农业科学》2019,52(15):2581-2592

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Identification and quantification of anthocyanins in different coloured cultivars of ornamental kale (Brassica oleracea L. var. acephala DC)     

Pengfang Zhu  Zhendong Tian  Zhichao Pan  Xin Feng 《The Journal of Horticultural Science and Biotechnology》2018,93(5):466-473

Anthocyanins are responsible for the colour of many fruits, vegetables, flowers, and coloured-leaved trees. Ornamental kale (Brassica oleracea L. var. acephala DC) is widely cultivated for its colourful inner leaves. To investigate the relationship between the degree of colouration and anthocyanin distribution, content, and composition in ornamental kale, the authors studied the pigment characteristics of five cultivars with different coloured leaves (white, pink, red, purple, and purple-black). Microscopy observation, spectrophotometer, and high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) analysis of fresh inner leaves revealed that pink, red, and purple colourations were associated with high levels of anthocyanin, while purple-black was the result of the combination of anthocyanins and chlorophyll. In the coloured cultivars, anthocyanins were abundant mainly in the first and second cell layers below the epidermis in both the hypocotyls and inner leaves. No anthocyanin was found in the white-leaved phenotype cultivar. Anthocyanin content increased as leaf colour deepened from pink, red, to purple cultivars, which had little chlorophyll and carotenoid. The authors identified eight anthocyanins in the four coloured cultivars, including one non-acylated, four monoacylated, and three diacylated cyanidin glycosides. Cyanidin-3-(sinapoyl)(feruloyl)-diglucoside-5-glucoside was the most abundant anthocyanin in the four coloured cultivars followed by cyanidin-3-(sinapoyl)-diglucoside-5-glucoside. The analysis of anthocyanin accumulation characterisation provides important information on evaluating colouration patterns in coloured plants, and will be helpful for breeding desired leaf colours in ornamental kale.  相似文献   

宁南霉素等药剂对番茄黄化曲叶病毒病的田间防效     

陶秀娟 《安徽农业科学》2017,45(4)

[目的]评价宁南霉素、艾德拉和碧护3种药剂混合使用防治番茄黄花曲叶病毒病的效果。[方法]通过田间试验研究8%宁南霉素、艾德拉绿(花、果)与碧护组成的药剂对番茄黄化曲叶病毒病的防治效果。[结果]8%宁南霉素、艾德拉绿(花、果)与碧护组成的试验药剂对番茄黄化曲叶病毒病具有很好的田间防治效果,第3次施药后10、20、30 d防效均在82%以上,与对照药剂番茄黄化曲叶病毒灵差异达极显著水平,且其产量比清水对照增加25 747.5 kg/hm~2,保产率为103.90%。[结论]宁南霉素、艾德拉和碧护混合使用对番茄黄花曲叶病毒病具有较好的防治效果,为番茄黄花曲叶病毒病的有效防治提供了理论依据。  相似文献