Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016          下载免费PDF全文

Jian-zhai WU  Jing ZHANG  Zhang-ming GE  Li-wei XING  Shu-qing HAN  Chen SHEN  Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.  相似文献   

都市餐饮企业的净菜需求影响因素分析——以北京市为例     

洪岚  卢悦  张恪渝 《中国瓜菜》2021,(3)

净菜的广泛使用能提高餐饮企业的出餐率,减少其后厨面积、劳动用工和厨余垃圾。基于北京地区708份餐饮企业净菜需求的问卷调查样本,运用垄断竞争市场理论和二元选择模型分析了影响餐饮企业净菜使用行为的具体因素。研究发现,对净菜了解程度不够和净菜价格偏高是制约餐饮企业使用净菜的主要因素,具有不同个体特征和环境特征的餐饮企业选择净菜的倾向性不同。建议在餐饮业大力开展净菜宣传科普工作;大力扶持净菜加工企业和发展相关技术支撑体系以降低净菜价格。  相似文献   

瓜类褪绿黄化病毒及其系统进化分析     

韩盛  麦麦提艾力·阿卜杜纳斯尔  杨渡  温且木·阿布列孜  玉山江·麦麦提 《新疆农业科学》2021,58(5):866-872

【目的】检测新疆南疆7个县/市瓜类褪绿黄化病毒(Cucurbit chlorotic yellows virus, CCYV),进行系统发育分析,为新疆南疆CCYV预警和防控提供参考。【方法】于2019年,从中国新疆南疆7个县/市采集带有黄化特征的51份甜瓜叶片样品,RT-PCR进行CCYV的检测,进行特异性片段的克隆、测序和系统发育分析。【结果】中国新疆巴楚县、阿克苏市、莎车县、伽师县、疏勒县、疏附县均未检测到CCYV,而洛浦县的13份样本中,8份检出为CCYV阳性,检出率为61.53%,洛浦县CCYV特异性片段克隆测序获得了685 bp的核酸序列,与GenBank中的CCYV分离物外壳蛋白(Coat protein, CP)的一致性达到100%。所得序列与中国新疆(吐鲁番)、中国其他省、苏丹、日本、塞浦路斯、黎巴嫩的CP基因聚在I组(Group),沙特阿拉伯的分离物聚在Ⅱ组,伊朗的分离物聚在Ⅲ组。【结论】CCYV在中国新疆南疆洛浦县甜瓜产区发生,与中国新疆吐鲁番、中国其他省及周围国家的CCYV分离物亲缘关系很近,且群体遗传变异很小。  相似文献   

岩溶流域典型农业区水体氢氧同位素的空间异质性及形成机制   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张金  韩志伟  吴攀  田永著  赵然  罗广飞 《中国农村水利水电》2021,(3)

分别于平水期和枯水期采集了花溪河流域典型农业区地表水和地下水样品。利用氢氧同位素示踪技术,结合土地利用类型对研究区不同水体的补给来源、季节变化及主要影响过程进行了分析,并对不同水体氢氧同位素值进行了空间插值分析,同时对其形成机制进行了分析,阐明了不同土地利用类型影响下的主要水文过程。结果表明:(1)研究区不同水体的主要补给来源为当地大气降水,月亮湖水库受蒸发作用影响明显,地表水和地下水的δD和δ~(18)O整体上呈现平水期高于枯水期的特征。(2)地下水的δD和δ~(18)O在枯水期与平水期均呈现明显的空间分异性特征,西部水田/水库集中区富集,东部旱地集中区贫化,土地利用对研究区环境水文过程影响明显。该研究结果有助于了解不同土地利用方式下地表水对地下水的影响,为流域管理提供科学依据。  相似文献   

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测     

王文权  张玉霄 《世界竹藤通讯》2021,19(6):21

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。  相似文献   

数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析     

李兴男  金江跃  降亚楠 《排灌机械工程学报》2021,39(2):179-185

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.  相似文献   

Large‐scale patterns of fish diversity and assemblage structure in the longest tropical river in Asia          下载免费PDF全文

Ratha Chea  Sovan Lek  Pengbun Ngor  Gaël Grenouillet 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2017,26(4):575-585

Although the Mekong River is one of the world's 35 biodiversity hot spots, the large‐scale patterns of fish diversity and assemblage structure remain poorly addressed. This study aimed to investigate the fish distribution patterns in the Lower Mekong River (LMR) and to identify their environmental determinants. Daily fish catch data (i.e. from December 2000 to November 2001) at 38 sites distributed along the LMR were related to 15 physicochemical and 19 climatic variables. As a result, four different clusters were defined according to the similarity in assemblage composition and 80 indicator species were identified. While fish species richness was highest in the Mekong delta and lowest in the upper part of the LMR, the diversity index was highest in the middle part of the LMR and lowest in the delta. We found that fish assemblages changed along the environmental gradients and that the main drivers affecting the fish assemblage structure were the seasonal variation of temperature, precipitation, dissolved oxygen, pH and total phosphorus. Specifically, upstream assemblages were characterised by cyprinids and Pangasius catfish, well suited to low temperature, high dissolved oxygen and high pH. Fish assemblages in the delta were dominated by perch‐like fish and clupeids, more tolerant to high temperatures, and high levels of nutrients (nitrates and total phosphorus) and salinity. Overall, the patterns were consistent between seasons. Our study contributes to establishing the first holistic fish community study in the LMR.  相似文献   

Beaver dams,streamflow complexity,and the distribution of a rare minnow,Lepidomeda copei          下载免费PDF全文

Daniel C. Dauwalter  John D. Walrath 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2018,27(2):606-616

Freshwater fishes are threatened globally, and often too little is known about threatened species to effectively guide their conservation. Habitat complexity is linked to fish species diversity and persistence, and degraded streams often lack habitat complexity. Beaver Castor spp., in turn, have been used to restore streams and increase habitat complexity. The northern leatherside chub Lepidomeda copei is a rare, small‐bodied, drift‐feeding minnow that has anecdotally been observed to use complex habitats associated with beaver dams in the western United States. To investigate this anecdote, we conducted fish and habitat surveys, the latter focusing on quantifying habitat complexity, in a sub‐basin of the Upper Snake River Basin in the USA. Complementary generalised linear model and path analyses revealed that northern leatherside chub occurred more often at sites with complex streamflows, and streamflows were more complex when beaver dams were present and pools were deeper. Northern leatherside chubs were also more likely to occur when temperatures were warmer, aquatic macrophytes were abundant and stream channels were narrow and deep. The linkage between chubs, complex streamflows and beaver dams needs to be evaluated more broadly to completely understand its role in the rangewide status of the species. However, it does suggests that increased use of beaver reintroductions and dam analogues for stream restoration could be a boon for the northern leatherside chub, but such efforts should be monitored to determine their effectiveness to help adapt beaver‐based restoration approaches to best benefit the species.  相似文献   

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究     

张晓婷  刘培顺  王学芳 《山东林业科技》2020,50(1):1-6,40

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。  相似文献   

北京地区南瓜病毒病病原种类鉴定     

陈利达  曹金强  石延霞  柴阿丽  谢学文  李宝聚 《中国蔬菜》2018,1(6):43-47

为明确北京地区南瓜病毒病种类及其主要侵染病原,2016~2017年在北京周边采集疑似感染病毒的南瓜病样84份,并根据南瓜上的6种病毒特异性引物对其进行反转录PCR(RT-PCR)检测。结果表明:共有79份南瓜病样检测显示阳性,其中黄瓜花叶病毒(Cucumber mosaic virus,CMV)的检出率最高,为52.38%;其次是小西葫芦黄花叶病毒(Zucchini yellow mosaic virus,ZYMV)和西瓜花叶病毒(Watermelon mosaic virus,WMV),检出率分别为44.01%、14.29%,其他病毒暂未检出。此外,16.67%的样品受2种病毒复合侵染,CMV和ZYMV复合侵染占7.14%,ZYMV和WMV复合侵染占9.52%。北京地区南瓜上优势病毒种类为CMV,且存在病毒复合侵染现象。  相似文献