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研究利用系统动力学软件STELLA构建FAO Penman Monteith模型,进行系统动力学建模与生态建模相结合的尝试。研究发现,实际太阳辐射模拟值与GIS空间插值结果基本吻合,变化趋势一致;潜在蒸散发量估算值与SEBS模型估算值接近,基于时间序列的变化趋势基本相同,较好地反映了逐日蒸散发量的时间异质性;敏感性分析发现潜在蒸散发量对反照率、回归常数、辐射系数和研究区纬度值（取值范围为37°39°）变化不敏感;系统动力学在分析复杂系统动态、模拟不同条件下系统因子之间相互作用以及响应过程中具有明显优势;STELLA本身强大的建模功能及友好图形界面在生态学及相关研究领域中有广阔前景;多学科方法、多时空尺度、多物理过程相耦合的研究将是以后该领域研究的重点和趋势之一。 相似文献
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【目的】明确参考作物蒸散发(Reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0)计算模型在三江源高寒草原区的适用性，优选出适宜于气象资料模拟的ET0模型。【方法】基于2020-2021年微气象站及称重式蒸渗仪自动观测连续数据，分析高寒草原实际蒸散发(Evapotranspiration,ET)的季节变化趋势，并以实测ET为标准，对FAO 56 Penman-Monteith、Priestley-Taylor、Mcloud、Mahringer、Dalton、DeBruinKeijman 6种常用ET0估算模型进行适用性评价，以此推演2009-2019年最适ET0变化趋势。【结果】1)季节尺度上，1-8月ET呈上升趋势，8月呈现最高值(3.93 mm/d),9-12月逐渐下降，ET年累积量达到339.66 mm，生长季ET占全年ET的70.49%;2)ET估算值和实测值对比分析表明，PM拟合效果最好(RMSE=0.85 mm/d;MBE=0.49 mm/d;PE=53.17%)，... 相似文献
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承德市武烈河流域是京津冀水源涵养功能区的重要组成部分,对国家可持续发展议程创新示范区的建设具有重要意义.本研究基于InVEST模型估算了1990-2018年武烈河流域的水源涵养量时空分布特征.结果表明:1)当Zhang系数为3.7时,模拟效果最佳,29年来,研究区多年平均水源涵养深度为83.85 mm,平均水源涵养总量为2.18×108 m3,总体呈微弱减小的变化趋势;2)研究区水源涵养深度与降水量显著正相关(P<0.05),与潜在蒸散发量显著负相关(P<0.05),与气温负相关,但不显著(P>0.05);3)各土地利用类型单位面积变化对水源涵养量的影响强度依次为林地、草地、耕地、建筑用地;4)通过情景模拟法得出,气候是研究区水源涵养量变化的主导因素,土地利用变化对水源涵养的抑制作用逐渐增强. 相似文献
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承德市武烈河流域水源涵养功能的时空特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《草业科学》2021,(6)
承德市武烈河流域是京津冀水源涵养功能区的重要组成部分,对国家可持续发展议程创新示范区的建设具有重要意义。本研究基于InVEST模型估算了1990-2018年武烈河流域的水源涵养量时空分布特征。结果表明:1)当Zhang系数为3.7时,模拟效果最佳,29年来,研究区多年平均水源涵养深度为83.85 mm,平均水源涵养总量为2.18×108 m~3,总体呈微弱减小的变化趋势;2)研究区水源涵养深度与降水量显著正相关(P 0.05),与潜在蒸散发量显著负相关(P 0.05),与气温负相关,但不显著(P 0.05);3)各土地利用类型单位面积变化对水源涵养量的影响强度依次为林地、草地、耕地、建筑用地;4)通过情景模拟法得出,气候是研究区水源涵养量变化的主导因素,土地利用变化对水源涵养的抑制作用逐渐增强。 相似文献
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蒸散作为重要的水文特征参数,是高寒沼泽草甸能量和水分消耗的主要途径,直接影响着生态系统的物质和能量循环。在高寒地区应用涡动相关法、波文比法、大型蒸渗仪等方法获取大范围实际蒸散较为困难。本研究通过高原地区辐射模型的比较、波文比系统观测,构建基于常规气象要素的高寒沼泽草甸实际蒸散模型,为高寒区域沼泽草甸大范围蒸散估算提供可能。研究结果表明,左大康辐射模型（ZUO）对青藏高原高寒沼泽草甸日辐射模拟效果最佳;采用FAO56 P-M,Priestley-Taylor,Hargreaves,Makkink等方法建立青藏高原高寒沼泽草甸日蒸散量估算参考蒸散量与实际蒸散量之间的经验模型,通过比较4种经验模型的RMSE,MAE和AI,发现经验模型FAO56 P-M,Makkink,Priestley-Taylor和Hargreaves都可以很好的估算高寒沼泽草甸的实际蒸散,其中FAO56 P-M,Priestley-Taylor和Makkink模型的模拟效果优于Hargreaves模型。 相似文献
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基于MOD16的锡林郭勒草原14年蒸散发时空分布特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于MODIS全球陆地蒸散发产品(MOD16),对锡林郭勒草原近14年蒸散发的年际和年内时空变化规律进行分析,同时探究不同类型草原蒸散发的变化特征。结果表明:(1)2000~2013年研究区蒸散发有波动中缓慢上升的趋势,在175.2~234.5mm间波动,多年年均值达204mm。月蒸散量高值集中在水分充足、气温较高、植被生长旺盛的6~8月份,在7月份达到最大值。(2)锡林郭勒草原多年平均蒸散发的空间格局由东北向西南逐渐减少,植被覆盖度高的区域蒸散量大,近14年来蒸散发的变化有增加趋势的面积大于呈减少趋势的面积,其中呈显著增加的像元主要位于东乌珠穆沁旗北部;减少的地区主要分布在二连浩特、苏尼特右旗及苏尼特左旗西部等。(3)不同草原类型蒸散发量由草甸草原向草原化荒漠、典型草原和荒漠草原逐渐减少。(4)在年际尺度上,在锡林郭勒地区降水是影响蒸散量的更为重要的因素。 相似文献
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《科技视界》2017,(20)
目的:通过对2005-2014年新疆地区乙肝新发病例数据的建模分析,为制定疫情防控策略提供科学参考。方法:利用传染病动力学的方法构建乙肝动力学模型,并对模型进行数值模拟和定量分析,显示疾病的发展过程,预测乙肝未来的发展变化趋势,分析影响乙肝流行的关键因素。结果:建立了乙肝的传播动力学模型,给出相关参数值,结果发现模型拟合值与实际发病数基本吻合,基本再生数R0=4.11(95%CI:4.00-4.26),该模型预测到2020年乙肝累积发病数将会达到615 550例。结论:新疆乙肝未来几年仍有上升趋势,相关部门应加强乙肝健康教育宣传力度,做好疫苗接种工作等综合性干预措施来控制乙肝的蔓延。 相似文献
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蒸散发作为调控区域水分收支的重要支出项,受植物性状的影响。本研究于2021年5月—2021年9月对三江源及其周边共5个区域(海晏(HY)、同德(TD)、玛多(MD)、曲麻莱(QML)、可可西里(KKXL))的实际蒸散发及植被数据进行收集,通过相关性分析解释植被变化过程对环境的适应策略。结果表明：三江源草地植物多以丛生或密丛生为主,其中比叶面积与株高、叶片干物质含量、生长型和种子类型间呈显著负相关(P<0.05)。生长季实际蒸散发日、月动态在5个区域均呈现单峰变化趋势,生长季累积量为HY(309.97 mm)>TD(279.58 mm)>QML(247.90 mm)>MD(239.42 mm)>KKXL(230.35 mm)。分析植物功能性状与实际蒸散发之间的相关性,表明株高、比叶面积、叶片干物质含量、生长型和种子类型均与实际蒸散发呈现一定相关性,其中生长型相关性最大(R2=0.74)。 相似文献
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为探究青藏高原典型高寒荒漠下垫面水分消耗规律,以2019年青藏高原典型高寒荒漠地区沱沱河站监测的涡动数据和微气象数据为基础,分析不同时间尺度蒸散值的变化特征和下垫面水分消耗特征,研究结果表明：小时平均蒸散发量最大值出现在14—15时,达0.46 mm·h-1;日蒸散值最大值出现在7月7日,为8.58 mm·d-1,最小值出现在4月2日,为0.30 mm·d-1;整个生长季蒸散值呈先增加后减小趋势,其中7月份最大,为120.68 mm,4月份最小,为64.80 mm;生长季总蒸散发量为581.15 mm,平均每天蒸散4.01 mm。整个生长季累计降水量为235.70 mm,蒸散发量与降水量（Precipitation,Pr）的差值（The difference between ET and Precipitation,IETP）显示,2019年青藏高原典型高寒荒漠植被生长季（4—8月）水汽交换以下垫面水分消耗为主。 相似文献
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以典型干旱区新疆于田绿洲为研究区,基于CoLM模式的点模拟方式模拟了研究区土壤湿度状况,利用地面监测数据对模拟结果进行了对比验证,对模型模拟误差进行了分析。研究结果表明,CoLM模式模拟的表层土壤湿度状况与地面监测土壤湿度数据有显著且有较好的相关性,CoLM模型用于干旱区土壤湿度模拟具有一定适宜性,但模拟精度需要进一步提高。模拟结果误差分析表明地下水位和土壤蒸散发量对研究区土壤水分时空变化影响显著,这是影响该区域CoLM模式土壤湿度模拟精度的主要因素。 相似文献
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魏静 《四川畜牧兽医学院学报》2009,(4):28-32
在现代法律秩序中,商会自治规范是制定法的基础和必要的补充,甚至在某些方面替代了制定法;商会自治规范主要包括商会组织规范、行为规范、惩罚规范以及争端解决规范等;其效力仅及于其内部成员;商会自治规范和制定法之间存在冲突,但也存在整合的基础。 相似文献
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本文概述了猪的毛色类型、猪的毛色遗传模式,着重综述了猪毛色基因分子基础的研究进展,指出存在问题并就未来发展方向做了思考。 相似文献
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REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Centesis of the bicipital bursa using an 8.9 cm long spinal needle has been reported but the alternative of employing a 3.8 cm long hypodermic needle requires validation. OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy of 2 different methods of centesis of the bicipital bursa and to evaluate the usefulness of ultrasonographic imaging to determine the location of solution administered when centesis of the bursa is attempted. METHODS: For Trial 1, 6 clinicians, who had no previous experience of centesis of the bicipital bursa, attempted to inject a solution composed of an aqueous radiopaque contrast medium and physiological saline solution (PSS) into the bicipital bursae of 2/12 horses using the previously described distal approach to inject one bursa and a proximal approach to inject the contralateral bursa. The bicipital tendon and bursa were examined ultrasonographically before and after injection; and both shoulders were examined radiographically to identify the location of the medium. In Trial 2, another 6 clinicians, also with no previous experience of centesis, repeated Trial 1, using 6 horses, but the radiopaque contrast medium was mixed with air instead of PSS. RESULTS: Accuracy of centesis using the proximal approach was 39% and that of the distal approach 28%. Ultrasonographic examination of the shoulder allowed the location of solution and air to be accurately predicted in all 12 shoulders examined. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians who have had no previous experience performing centesis of the bicipital bursa are unlikely to be successful in centesis using either approach. Radiographic examination after injecting a radiopaque contrast medium may be necessary to assess the success of centesis especially if bursal fluid is not obtained during centesis. Injecting air along with the radiopaque contrast medium provides more accurate ultrasonographic confirmation of centesis and better radiographic definition than does injection without air. 相似文献
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Effects of size of ingestively masticated fragments of plant tissues on kinetics of digestion of NDF
Ingestively masticated fragments were collected and sized via sieving. Different sizes of esophageal masticate and ruminal digesta fragments, and ground fragments of larger masticated pieces were incubated in vitro, and undigested NDF remaining at intervals of up to 168 h of incubation was determined. The ruminal age-dependent time delay (tau) for onset of digestion of NDF was positively correlated (P < 0.004) with the mean sieve aperture estimated to retain 50% of the fragments between successive sieve apertures (MRA). Degradation rate of potentially degradable NDF (PDF) and level of indigestible NDF were not related (P > 0.10) to MRA of masticated and ground fragments. Estimates of tau were positively related to MRA, with slopes of bermudagrass < corn silage < ruminal fragments of corn silage. It was concluded that fragment size-, and consequently, ruminal age-dependent onset of PDF degradation of a mixture of different fragment sizes results in an age-dependent rate of degradation of the more rapidly degrading of two subentities of PDF. Models are proposed that assume a tau before onset of simultaneous degradation of PDF from two pools characterized as having gamma-modeled age-dependency and age-constant rates. The ruminal age-dependent pool seems to be associated with the faster-degrading pool, and its rate parameter increases with range in MRA in the population of fragments. Conceptually, the ruminal age-dependent rate parameter for PDF degradation seems to represent a composite of several effects: 1) effects of the size-dependent tau; 2) range in MRA of the population of ingestively masticated fragments; and 3) subentities of PDF that degrade via more rapid age-dependent rates compared with subentities of PDF that degrade via age-constant rates. The estimated fractional rates of ruminative comminution of ingestively masticated fragments (0.060 to 0.075/h) were of a magnitude similar to the mean fractional rates of PDF digestion (0.030 to 0.085/h), which implies that ruminative comminution may be first-limiting to fractional rate of PDF digestion. The in vivo roles of ingestive and ruminative mastication of fragments on PDF degradation must be considered in any kinetic system for estimating PDF digestion in the rumen. These results and others in the literature suggest that the rate of surface area exposure rather than intrinsic chemical attributes of PDF may be first-limiting to degradation rate of PDF in vivo. 相似文献
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乳酸杆菌作为益生菌广泛用于人和动物.本文综述了乳酸杆菌改善宿主健康的机制.乳酸杆菌可通过产生抗菌物质如乳酸、过氧化氢、细菌素,或者通过竞争营养或肠道黏附位点来抑制致病菌;通过诱导黏附素的分泌或阻止细胞凋亡而增强肠道的屏障功能,从而保护肠道.文章重点讨论了乳酸杆菌表面成分(表面蛋白、脂磷壁酸和肽聚糖)与肠道受体(C型凝集素受体、Toll样受体和Nod样受体),阐述了他们结合后启动免疫调节信号,调控肠道免疫功能以发挥改善健康作用的机制. 相似文献
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Billinghurst RC Brama PA van Weeren PR Knowlton MS McIlwraith CW 《American journal of veterinary research》2004,65(2):143-150
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether serum concentrations of biomarkers of skeletal metabolism can, in conjunction with radiographic evaluation, indicate severity of osteochondrosis in developing horses. ANIMALS: 43 Dutch Warmblood foals with varying severity of osteochondrosis. PROCEDURE: 24 foals were monitored for 5 months and 19 foals were monitored for 11 months. Monthly radiographs of femoropatellar-femorotibial and tibio-tarsal joints were graded for osteochondral abnormalities. Serial blood samples were assayed for 8 cartilage and bone biomarkers. At the end of the monitoring period, foals were examined for macroscopic osteochondrosis lesions. RESULTS: Temporal relationships were evident between certain serum biomarkers and osteochondrosis severity in foals during their first year. Biomarkers of collagen degradation (collagenase-generated neoepitopes of type-II collagen fragments, type-I and -II collagen fragments [COL2-3/4C(short)], and cross-linked telopeptide fragments of type-I collagen) and bone mineralization (osteocalcin) were positive indicators of osteochondrosis severity at 5 months of age. In foals with lesions at 11 months of age, osteochondrosis severity correlated negatively with COL2-3/4C(short) and osteocalcin and positively with C-propeptide of type-II procollagen (CPII), a collagen synthesis marker. Radiographic grading of osteochondrosis lesions significantly correlated with macroscopic osteochondrosis severity score at both ages and was strongest when combined with osteocalcin at 5 months and CPII at 11 months. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The ability of serum biomarkers to indicate osteochondrosis severity appears to depend on stage of disease and is strengthened with radiography. In older foals with more permanent lesions, osteochondrosis severity is significantly related to biomarker concentrations of decreased bone formation and increased cartilage synthesis. 相似文献