Predicting ecosystem resilience is a challenge, especially as climate change alters disturbance regimes and conditions for recovery. Recent research has highlighted the importance of spatially-explicit disturbance and resilience processes to long-term ecosystem dynamics. “Neoecological” approaches characterize resilience mechanisms at relatively fine spatio-temporal resolutions, but results are difficult to extrapolate across broad temporal scales or climatic ranges. Paleoecological methodologies can consider the effects of climates that differ from today. However, they are often limited to coarse-grained spatio-temporal resolutions.
MethodsIn this synthesis, we describe implicit and explicit examples of studies that incorporate both neo- and paleoecological approaches. We propose ways to build on the strengths of both approaches in an explicit and proactive fashion.
ResultsLinking the two approaches is a powerful way to surpass their respective limitations. Aligning spatial scales is critical: Paleoecological sampling design should incorporate knowledge of the spatial characteristics of the disturbance process, and neoecological studies benefit from a longer-term context to their conclusions. In some cases, modeling can incorporate non-spatial data from paleoecological records or emerging spatial paleo-data networks with mechanistic disturbance/recovery processes that operate at fine spatiotemporal scales.
ConclusionsLinking these two complementary approaches is a powerful way to build a complete understanding of ecosystem disturbance and resilience.
相似文献Around 30% of European agricultural landscapes are classified as high nature value (HNV) farmlands. Current policies emphasize the multifunctionality of these landscapes, but little is known about the positive and negative associations of multiple ecosystem services within HNV farmland.
ObjectivesThis study aims to identify perceived ecosystem services synergies, trade-offs, and bundles in agricultural landscapes of HNV from a socio-cultural perspective.
MethodsWe performed a participatory mapping survey of 10 ecosystem services categories among 2301 rural residents in 13 European sites. We analyzed bivariate synergies and trade-offs between perceived ecosystem services through nonparametric correlation analyses. Spatial bundles of perceived ecosystem services were identified through hierarchical cluster analysis. Multinomial logit models were used to assess the influence of land cover on generating associations of ecosystem services.
ResultsWe find two strong and 16 moderate synergies of perceived ecosystem services (out of 46 possible ecosystem services pairs), mainly among different cultural ecosystem services. We do not reveal moderate or strong trade-offs. We identify five spatial bundles of ecosystem services, termed “Ecosystem services coldspots”, “Wild harvesting ranges”, “Nature areas”, “Recreational spaces”, and “Ecosystem services hotspots”. Of all land-cover co-variates, natural areas, urban areas, and roads have the strongest explanatory power.
ConclusionsOur study complements prevailing biophysical and economic analyses of ecosystem services synergies, trade-offs and bundles by a spatially explicit, socio-cultural perspective. We conclude that socio-cultural mapping of ecosystem services is useful for understanding the perceived multifunctionality of a landscape.
相似文献Global environmental change is expected to dramatically affect agricultural crop production through a myriad of pathways. One important and thus far poorly understood impact is the effect of land cover and climate change on agricultural insect pests and insecticides.
ObjectivesHere we address the following three questions: (1) how do landscape complexity and weather influence present-day insecticide use, (2) how will changing landscape characteristics and changing climate influence future insecticide use, and how do these effects manifest for different climate and land cover projections? and (3) what are the most important drivers of changing insecticide use?
MethodsWe use panel models applied to county-level agriculture, land cover, and weather data in the US to understand how landscape composition and configuration, weather, and farm characteristics impact present-day insecticide use. We then leverage forecasted changes in land cover and climate under different future scenarios to predict insecticide use in 2050.
ResultsWe find different future scenarios—through modifications in both landscape and climate conditions—increase the amount of area treated by ~ 4–20% relative to 2017, with regionally heterogeneous impacts. Of note, we report large farms are more influential than large crop patches and increased winter minimum temperature is more influential than increased summer maximum temperature. However, our results suggest the most important determinants of future insecticide use are crop composition and farm size, variables for which future forecasts are sparse.
ConclusionsBoth landscape and climate change are expected to increase future insecticide use. Yet, crop composition and farm size are highly influential, data-poor variables. Better understanding of future crop composition and farm economics is necessary to effectively predict and mitigate increases in pesticide use.
相似文献Artificial light at night (ALAN) provides an array of important benefits but might also adversely affect humans and other living organisms. Yet, the existing reviews of accumulated knowledge about the multifaceted effects associated with exposure to ALAN focus on distinct ecosystem components. As a result, our understanding of potential system-wide impacts of ALAN exposure is insufficient.
ObjectivesThis paper attempts to bridge this knowledge gap by reviewing a wide range of studies, with a particular focus on identifying the impacts of ALAN exposure that are common to different species.
MethodsThe survey is conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and covers peer-reviewed articles published from 2000 to 2019.
ResultsSeventy-four eligible articles, out of 1223 initially identified, were selected and synthesized. 20% of them focus on humans, while the rest explore other living organisms, such as vertebrates, avian species, arthropods, aquatic organisms, and vegetation. The review demonstrates that similar adverse effects of ALAN exposure, ranging from sleep disturbance, depression, weight gain, eating and movement disorders, to elevated risk of cancer, are manifested across different components of the ecosystem, and therefore entail wider and more complex risks to its stability and integrity.
ConclusionTo reduce ecosystem risks, associated with constantly increasing ALAN levels, illumination policies should be based on directional and reduced nighttime lighting, which can help to avoid unnecessary exposures. The study highlights knowledge gaps that warrant further research attention.
相似文献We address understanding of whole-system and landscape-based approaches to the ecosystem services framework by considering the supply of provisioning services and the dynamics of agricultural land use in Scotland between 1940 and 2016.
ObjectivesTo characterise and understand the dynamics of change in provisioning services from agriculture in Scotland over the period 1940–2016. To identify ways in which funds of capitals and flows of inputs and output ecosystem goods are linked to land management practices and policies at a national scale.
MethodsData describing agricultural land use, production, financial and energy inputs and outputs, and drivers of change in land use in Scotland are analysed with an accounting framework that links funds of natural, human, physical and financial capital, with flows of goods and services. Flow–fund ratios are used as benchmarks of system performance and dynamics.
ResultsScotland’s agriculture has modernised since 1940 and become more efficient in conversion of resources, with a consequent increase in delivery of provisioning goods and services. Although the energy ratio, and flow of goods per unit hectare and per unit labour have increased, the inputs necessary to maintain those flows of ecosystem goods are also increasing, even as their relative economic costs decrease. Increases in use of fertiliser suggests that production from the soil, as a natural capital fund, is not being conserved without a large, and increasing, input. Analysis of the complexity of the coupled agricultural land system also suggests that land management rather than biodiversity is a necessary subject for evaluation of provisioning services from agriculture. Understanding of ecosystem services based on accounts that integrate inputs, outputs and flows from funds of natural, human, social, financial and physical capitals, provides a process-based foundation for improved understanding of ecosystem services and human–environmental relationships.
ConclusionsAdopting an accounting approach for understanding the role of agricultural land use for supply of provisioning services, and particularly examining a long time-series of accounts, enables understanding of land changes and underlying drivers, as well as the contribution of cultural and other aspects of human systems coupled with environment systems. Accounting for ecosystem services using costs as well as benefits, and use of metrics beyond financial benefit, supports debate and evaluation of trade-offs between services and has direct relevance for decision- and policy-making.
相似文献The boreal forest is globally important for its influence on Earth’s energy balance, and its sensitivity to climate change. Ecosystem functioning in boreal forests is shaped by fire activity, so anticipating the impacts of climate change requires understanding the precedence for, and consequences of, climatically induced changes in fire regimes. Long-term records of climate, fire, and vegetation are critical for gaining this understanding.
ObjectivesWe investigated the relative importance of climate and landscape flammability as drivers of fire activity in boreal forests by developing high-resolution records of fire history, and characterizing their centennial-scale relationships to temperature and vegetation dynamics.
MethodsWe reconstructed the timing of fire activity in interior Alaska, USA, using seven lake-sediment charcoal records spanning CE 1550–2015. We developed individual and composite records of fire activity, and used correlations and qualitative comparisons to assess relationships with existing records of vegetation and climate.
ResultsOur records document a dynamic relationship between climate and fire. Fire activity and temperature showed stronger coupling after ca. 1900 than in the preceding 350 yr. Biomass burning and temperatures increased concurrently during the second half of the twentieth century, to their highest point in the record. Fire activity followed pulses in black spruce establishment.
ConclusionsFire activity was facilitated by warm temperatures and landscape-scale dominance of highly flammable mature black spruce, with a notable increase in temperature and fire activity during the twenty-first century. The results suggest that widespread burning at landscape scales is controlled by a combination of climate and vegetation dynamics that together drive flammability.
相似文献Two approaches to study landscape change have been exploited: one that tries to study the developments that have happened in the past, and another that tries to foresee future.
ObjectivesWe analyse how this dual approach can help understanding landscape change, how people relate to it in general, what their expectations and preferences are. We also discuss the usefulness of path dependency theory, cultural sustainability, and cultural ecosystem services approaches in understanding the management of a historical cultural landscape.
MethodsFirst, we revisit a 1999 scenario study that outlined the possible trajectories of change prior Estonian accession to the European Union in 2004. Then, through series of studies we track the wider context of the landscape changes, analysing the results from the interviews and combining those with the visible results. We seek to answer whether or not the landscape changes that occurred followed any of the past scenarios, and if people’s preferences changed.
ResultsThe dynamics of realisation of different scenarios was not straightforward. However, people showed clear preference towards landscapes that carried signs of the continuation of rural life. What was not foreseen when designing the scenarios was the upsurge of local identity creating the links with the past.
ConclusionsIn this Estonian traditional cultural landscape, stewardship, culture and cultural ecosystem services, or nature’s contribution to people as IPBES prefers to call this now, define what caring for the landscape involves.
相似文献Humans continually transform landscapes, affecting the ecosystem services (ES) they provide. Thus, the spatial relationships among services vary across landscapes. Managers and decision makers have access to a variety of tools for mapping landscapes and analyzing their capacity to provide multiple ES.
ObjectivesThis paper characterizes and maps ES bundles across transformed landscapes in southeast Spain incorporating both the ecological and social perspectives. Our specific goals were to: (1) quantify ES biophysical supply, (2) identify public awareness, (3) map ES bundles, and (4) characterize types of ES bundles based on their social-ecological dimensions.
MethodsBiophysical models and face-to-face social surveys were used to quantify and map ES bundles and explore the public awareness in a highly transformed Mediterranean region. Then, we classified ES bundles into four types using a matrix crossing the degree of biophysical ES supply and the degree of social awareness.
ResultsResults mapped seven ES bundles types representing diverse social-ecological dynamics. ES bundles mapped at the municipality level showed mismatches between their biophysical provision and the public awareness, which has important implications for operationalizing the bundles concept for landscape planning and management. ES bundles characterization identified four types of bundles scenarios.
ConclusionsWe propose an ES bundles classification that incorporates both their social and ecological dimensions. Our findings can be used by land managers to identify areas in which ES are declining as well as priority areas for maximizing ES provision and can help to identify conflicts associated with new management and planning practices.
相似文献In the Andalusia region (Spain), olive grove agro-systems cover a wide area, forming social-ecological landscapes. Recent socioeconomic changes have increased the vulnerability of these landscapes, resulting in the abandonment and intensification of farms. The provision of the main ecosystem services of these landscapes have thus been degraded.
ObjectivesTo analyse the sustainability of an olive grove social-ecological landscape in Andalusia. Specifically, to develop a quantitative model proposing land planning and management scenarios, considering abandonment, production and economic benefits of olive crops in different conditions of erosion and management.
MethodsWe applied a dynamic model using agronomic and economic data, to evaluate different types of olive management. We considered different levels of erosion, the loss of production related to this erosion, and useful life spans for each type of management. We simulated scenarios for the long-term assessment of dynamics of crops, abandonment rate, production and benefits.
Results(a) There was a loss of productive lands and benefits in the medium term in the more intensive crops. (b) Scenarios that partially incorporated ecological management proved to be more sustainable without economic subsidies. (c) The spatial combination of integrated, intensive and ecological plots was sustainable, and was well balanced from an economic, productive and ecological point of view.
ConclusionsScenarios that partially incorporate ecological management allowed the best economic and environmental balance. However, to ensure the sustainability of olive landscapes, farmers should be financially rewarded for their role in the conservation of ecosystem services through landscape stewardship and direct environmental payments.
相似文献The downlisting of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) from Endangered to Vulnerable in IUCN Red List confirms the effectiveness of current conservation practices. However, future survival of giant panda is still in jeopardy due to habitat fragmentation and climate change. Maintaining movement corridors between habitat patches in the newly established Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) is the key for the long-term sustainability of the species.
ObjectivesWe evaluated the impacts of conversion from natural forest to plantation on giant panda habitat connectivity, which is permitted within collective forests and encouraged by the policies for the economic benefits of local communities. We modeled distribution of giant panda habitat in Minshan Mountains which harbors its largest population, and delineated movement corridors between core habitat patches under management scenarios of different forest conversion proportions.
MethodsWe applied an integrated species distribution model based on inhomogeneous Poisson point process to combine presence-only data and site occupancy data, and least-cost models to identify potential movement corridors between core habitat patches.
ResultsWe found that current distribution of plantation has not damaged connectivity between core habitat patches of giant panda. However, it could be severely degraded if mass conversion occurred. Since the GPNP incorporates all the core habitats identified from our model, controlling natural forest conversion inside GPNP would maintain the movement corridors for giant panda.
ConclusionsWe recommend no expansion of plantations inside the GPNP, and improving collective forest management for expansion of ecological forest in adjoining habitat patches.
相似文献Cultivated lands have undergone a shift towards intensification and increased productivity, favoring provisioning services at the expense of regulating and cultural services. Cultivated lands have rarely been researched as a provider of cultural services.
ObjectivesThe overarching goal of this study is to assess sense of place across cultivated lands. To do so, we used participatory mapping to elicit public knowledge of the past and present coverage of agricultural areas, as well as to reveal the public sense of place attached to cultivated lands and perceptions about future land-use pathways.
MethodsThis study was conducted in an agrarian and rural region of SE Madrid (Spain), where we did ecosystem service participatory mapping workshops with key stakeholders related to the agrarian sector: farming professionals, land-use decision-makers and planners and other local actors.
ResultsWe identified linkages between cultivated lands and sense of place as a key cultural service. The locations most pinpointed for its sense of place overlapped with cultivated lands. The future land-use pathways that showed the highest agreement between the likelihood and interest in their promotion were the increases in green and/or protected areas and orchards. Extensive crops and urban areas the land-use pathways with the highest dissonance.
ConclusionsThe results encourage land planners and researchers to approach landscape values in relation to the sense of place. We concluded that cultivated lands present a sense of place, and this link has the possible to root society in agricultural landscape through the establishment of belongingness, stewardship and care connections.
相似文献Context
Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.Objectives
LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.Methods
We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.Results
Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.Conclusions
Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.Habitat fragmentation is known to be one of the leading causes of species extinctions, however few studies have explored how habitat fragmentation impacts ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling, especially in wetland ecosystems.
ObjectivesWe aimed to determine how habitat fragmentation, defined by habitat area and distance from habitat edge, impacts the above-ground carbon cycling and nutrient stoichiometry of a foundation species in a coastal salt marsh.
MethodsWe conducted our research in a salt marsh in the Mid-Atlantic United States, where the foundation grass species Spartina patens is being replaced by a more flood-tolerant grass, leading to highly fragmented habitat patches. We quantified decomposition rates, live biomass, and litter accumulation of S. patens at patch edges and interiors. Additionally, we measured relevant characteristics (e.g., habitat area, elevation, microclimate) of S. patens patches.
ResultsHabitat edge effects, and not habitat area effects, had distinct impacts on ecosystem functioning. Habitat edges had less litter accumulation, faster decomposition rates, a warmer and drier microclimate, and lower elevations than patch interiors. Patches with low elevation edges had the fastest decomposition rates, while interiors of patches at any elevation had the slowest decomposition rates. Notably, these impacts were not driven by changes in primary production.
ConclusionHabitat fragmentation impacts the above-ground carbon cycling of S. patens in coastal wetlands by altering litter decomposition, but not primary production, through habitat edge effects. Future research should investigate whether this pattern scales across broader landscapes and if it is observable in other wetland ecosystems.
相似文献