With the expansion in urbanization, understanding how biodiversity responds to the altered landscape becomes a major concern. Most studies focus on habitat effects on biodiversity, yet much less attention has been paid to surrounding landscape matrices and their joint effects.
ObjectiveWe investigated how habitat and landscape matrices affect waterbird diversity across scales in the Yangtze River Floodplain, a typical area with high biodiversity and severe human-wildlife conflict.
MethodsThe compositional and structural features of the landscape were calculated at fine and coarse scales. The ordinary least squares regression model was adopted, following a test showing no significant spatial autocorrelation in the spatial lag and spatial error models, to estimate the relationship between landscape metrics and waterbird diversity.
ResultsWell-connected grassland and shrub surrounded by isolated and regular-shaped developed area maintained higher waterbird diversity at fine scales. Regular-shaped developed area and cropland, irregular-shaped forest, and aggregated distribution of wetland and shrub positively affected waterbird diversity at coarse scales.
ConclusionsHabitat and landscape matrices jointly affected waterbird diversity. Regular-shaped developed area facilitated higher waterbird diversity and showed the most pronounced effect at coarse scales. The conservation efforts should not only focus on habitat quality and capacity, but also habitat connectivity and complexity when formulating development plans. We suggest planners minimize the expansion of the developed area into critical habitats and leave buffers to maintain habitat connectivity and shape complexity to reduce the disturbance to birds. Our findings provide important insights and practical measures to protect biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes.
相似文献Forest management and disturbances cause habitat fragmentation for saproxylic species living on old-growth attributes. The degree of habitat spatiotemporal continuity required by these species is a key question for designing biodiversity-friendly forestry, and it strongly depends on species’ dispersal. The “stability–dispersal” model predicts that species using stable habitats should have lower dispersal abilities than species associated with ephemeral habitat and thus respond to habitat availability at smaller scales.
ObjectivesWe aimed at testing the stability–dispersal model by comparing the spatial scales at which saproxylic beetle guilds using substrates with contrasted stability (from stable to ephemeral: cavicolous, fungicolous, saproxylophagous and xylophagous guilds) are affected by landscape structure (i.e. habitat amount and aggregation).
MethodsWe sampled saproxylic beetles using a spatially nested design (plots within landscape windows). We quantified habitat availability (tree cavities, polypores and deadwood) in 1-ha plots, 26-ha buffers around plots and 506-ha windows, and analyzed their effect on the abundance and diversity of associated guilds.
ResultsThe habitat amount within plots and buffers positively affected the abundance of the cavicolous and the fungicolous guilds whereas saproxylophagous and xylophagous did not respond at these scales. The habitat aggregation within windows only positively affected the saproxylophagous species richness within plots and also on the similarity in species composition among plots.
ConclusionsBeetle guilds specialized on more stable habitat were affected by landscape structure at smaller spatial scales, which corroborated the stability–dispersal model. In managed forests, the spatial grain of conservation efforts should therefore be adapted to the target habitat lifetime.
相似文献Herbicide treatments in viticulture can generate highly contrasting mosaics of vegetated and bare vineyards, of which vegetated fields often provide better conditions for biodiversity. In southern Switzerland, where herbicides are applied at large scales, vegetated vineyards are limited in extent and isolated from one another, potentially limiting the distribution and dispersal ability of organisms.
ObjectivesWe tested the separate and interactive effects of habitat amount and fragmentation on invertebrate abundance using a multi-scale framework, along with additional environmental factors. We identified which variables at which scales were most important in predicting patterns of invertebrate abundance.
MethodsWe used a factorial design to sample across a gradient of habitat amount (area of vegetated vineyards, measured as percentage of landscape PLAND) and fragmentation (number of vegetated patches, measured as patch density PD). Using 10 different spatial scales, we identified the factors and scales that most strongly predicted invertebrate abundance and tested potential interactions between habitat amount and fragmentation.
ResultsHabitat amount (PLAND index) was most important in predicting invertebrate numbers at a field scale (50 m radius). In contrast, we found a negative effect of fragmentation (PD) at a broad scale of 450 m radius, but no interactive effect between the two.
ConclusionsThe spatial scales at which habitat amount and fragmentation affect invertebrates differ, underpinning the importance of spatially explicit study designs in disentangling the effects between habitat amount and configuration. We showed that the amount of vegetated vineyards has more influence on invertebrate abundance, but that fragmentation also contributed substantially. This suggests that efforts for augmenting the area of vegetated vineyards is more beneficial for invertebrate numbers than attempts to connect them.
相似文献Dead wood is a key habitat for saproxylic species, which are often used as indicators of habitat quality in forests. Understanding how the amount and spatial distribution of dead wood in the landscape affects saproxylic communities is therefore important for maintaining high forest biodiversity.
ObjectivesWe investigated effects of the amount and isolation of dead wood on the alpha and beta diversity of four saproxylic species groups, with a focus on how the spatial scale influences results.
MethodsWe inventoried saproxylic beetles, wood-inhabiting fungi, and epixylic bryophytes and lichens on 62 plots in the Sihlwald forest reserve in Switzerland. We used GLMs to relate plot-level species richness to dead wood amount and isolation on spatial scales of 20–200 m radius. Further, we used GDMs to determine how dead wood amount and isolation affected beta diversity.
ResultsA larger amount of dead wood increased beetle richness on all spatial scales, while isolation had no effect. For fungi, bryophytes and lichens this was only true on small spatial scales. On larger scales of our study, dead wood amount had no effect, while greater isolation decreased species richness. Further, we found no strong consistent patterns explaining beta diversity.
ConclusionsOur multi-taxon study shows that habitat amount and isolation can strongly differ in the spatial scale on which they influence local species richness. To generally support the species richness of different saproxylic groups, dead wood must primarily be available in large amounts but should also be evenly distributed because negative effects of isolation already showed at scales under 100 m.
相似文献Habitat characteristics are often equated with habitat function for animals. However, in heterogeneous landscapes, similar habitat types occur in different environmental contexts. In the marine realm, landscape studies have been confined to particular environments, rather than encompassing entire seascapes, due to incompatible sampling methods required in different situations.
ObjectivesWe examined the interactive structuring effects of local habitat characteristics and environmental context on assemblage composition.
MethodsWe used a single technique—remote underwater video census—to explore the importance of habitat type (biotic structural components, substrate, and depth) and environmental context (marine vs estuarine) in structuring juvenile fish assemblages throughout an entire coastal region. In this model system, a range of structural habitat types were present in both estuarine and marine contexts.
ResultsThe 1315 video surveys collected show a clear hierarchy in the organisation of juvenile fish communities, with assemblages first distinguished by environmental context, then by habitat type. Marine and estuarine mangroves contained entirely different assemblages, and likewise for rocky reefs and submerged aquatic vegetation. Our results suggest that two functionally different ‘seascape nursery’ types exist at local scales within a single region, defined by their context.
ConclusionsThe context of a location can be of greater significance in determining potential habitat function than what habitat-forming biota and substrates are present, and apparently similar habitat types in different contexts may be functionally distinct. These findings have important implications for local-scale management and conservation of juvenile fish habitats, particularly in regard to offsetting and restoration.
相似文献Climate and land-use change have led to disturbance regimes in many ecosystems without a historical analog, leading to uncertainty about how species adapted to past conditions will respond to novel post-disturbance landscapes.
ObjectivesWe examined habitat selection by spotted owls in a post-fire landscape. We tested whether selection or avoidance of severely burned areas could be explained by patch size or configuration, and whether variation in selection among individuals could be explained by differences in habitat availability.
MethodsWe applied mixed-effects models to GPS data from 20 spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, with individual owls occupying home ranges spanning a broad range of post-fire conditions after the 2014 King Fire.
ResultsIndividual spotted owls whose home ranges experienced less severe fire (<?5% of home range severely burned) tended to select severely burned forest, but owls avoided severely burned forest when more of their home range was affected (~ 5–40%). Owls also tended to select severe fire patches that were smaller in size and more complex in shape, and rarely traveled?>?100-m into severe fire patches. Spotted owls avoided areas that had experienced post-fire salvage logging but the interpretation of this effect was nuanced. Owls also avoided areas that were classified as open and/or young forest prior to the fire.
ConclusionsOur results support the hypothesis that spotted owls are adapted to historical fire regimes characterized by small severe fire patches in this region. Shifts in disturbance regimes that produce novel landscape patterns characterized by large, homogeneous patches of high-severity fire may negatively affect this species.
相似文献Habitat fragmentation is known to be one of the leading causes of species extinctions, however few studies have explored how habitat fragmentation impacts ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling, especially in wetland ecosystems.
ObjectivesWe aimed to determine how habitat fragmentation, defined by habitat area and distance from habitat edge, impacts the above-ground carbon cycling and nutrient stoichiometry of a foundation species in a coastal salt marsh.
MethodsWe conducted our research in a salt marsh in the Mid-Atlantic United States, where the foundation grass species Spartina patens is being replaced by a more flood-tolerant grass, leading to highly fragmented habitat patches. We quantified decomposition rates, live biomass, and litter accumulation of S. patens at patch edges and interiors. Additionally, we measured relevant characteristics (e.g., habitat area, elevation, microclimate) of S. patens patches.
ResultsHabitat edge effects, and not habitat area effects, had distinct impacts on ecosystem functioning. Habitat edges had less litter accumulation, faster decomposition rates, a warmer and drier microclimate, and lower elevations than patch interiors. Patches with low elevation edges had the fastest decomposition rates, while interiors of patches at any elevation had the slowest decomposition rates. Notably, these impacts were not driven by changes in primary production.
ConclusionHabitat fragmentation impacts the above-ground carbon cycling of S. patens in coastal wetlands by altering litter decomposition, but not primary production, through habitat edge effects. Future research should investigate whether this pattern scales across broader landscapes and if it is observable in other wetland ecosystems.
相似文献Conservation for the Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), a federally endangered species in the United States of America, is typically focused on local maternity sites; however, the species is a regional migrant, interacting with the environment at multiple spatial scales. Hierarchical levels of management may be necessary, but we have limited knowledge of landscape-level ecology, distribution, and connectivity of suitable areas in complex landscapes.
ObjectivesWe sought to (1) identify factors influencing M. sodalis maternity colony distribution in a mosaic landscape, (2) map suitable maternity habitat, and (3) quantify connectivity importance of patches to direct conservation action.
MethodsUsing 3 decades of occurrence data, we tested a priori, hypothesis-driven habitat suitability models. We mapped suitable areas and quantified connectivity importance of habitat patches with probabilistic habitat availability metrics.
ResultsFactors improving landscape-scale suitability included limited agriculture, more forest cover, forest edge, proximity to medium-sized water bodies, lower elevations, and limited urban development. Areas closer to hibernacula and rivers were suitable. Binary maps showed that 30% of the study area was suitable for M. sodalis and 29% was important for connectivity. Most suitable patches were important for intra-patch connectivity and far fewer contributed to inter-patch connectivity.
ConclusionsWhile simple models may be effective for small, homogenous landscapes, complex models are needed to explain habitat suitability in large, mixed landscapes. Suitability modeling identified factors that made sites attractive as maternity areas. Connectivity analysis improved our understanding of important areas for bats and prioritized areas to target for restoration.
相似文献Black bear connectivity studies are scarce in the southern distribution where the species is endangered. The identification of corridors is a strategy to promote conservation in human-modified landscapes.
ObjectivesAssess and validate long-distance corridors in the southern black bear distribution using resistance models, occurrence records, and radio-telemetry of an individual that dispersed between the Sierras Madres of Mexico.
MethodsWe acquired black bear occurrence records from several sources and telemetry records from one dispersal individual in northern Mexico. We generated ensemble habitat suitability models and resistance landscape surfaces to generate cumulative resistant kernel and least-cost paths to identify connectivity core areas and corridors of importance through Natural Protected Areas. Finally, we assessed long-distance corridors.
ResultsWe developed three habitat suitability models for black bears southern range; one matches the current distribution of the species. When including radio-tracking records, the landscape resistance is reduced to arid sites with low habitat suitability. We used least resistance connectivity surfaces to merge subpopulations within each Sierra Madre. The long-distance corridor models indicate narrow routes that require individuals with plastic behavioral dispersal capacity. Almost 20% of the connectivity core areas are within Natural Protected Areas. These are the first large-scale corridors using resistance layers in the southern black bear distribution.
ConclusionsCorridors can be functional for a range of temperate and dry habitat species. Landscape connectivity models should include the monitoring of dispersal individuals to identify the plasticity of organisms and the tangible barriers for them.
相似文献Human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP) is employed as a measure of human pressures on biodiversity, though largely at global and national scales rather than landscape to regional scales where many conservation decisions take place. Though gaining in familiarity, HANPP is not widely utilized by conservation professionals.
ObjectivesThis study, encompassing the US side of the Great Lakes basin, examines how regional distributions of HANPP relate to landscape-based biodiversity proxy metrics used by conservation professionals. Our objectives were (1) to quantify the HANPP of managed lands at the county scale; and (2) to assess spatial patterns of HANPP in comparison to landscape diversity and local habitat connectedness to determine if the metric can provide useful information to conservation professionals.
MethodsWe aggregated forest and cropland NPP data between 2005 and 2015 and coupled it with previously published potential vegetation maps to quantify the HANPP of each county in the study region. We mapped the outputs at 500 m resolution to analyze spatial relationships between HANPP and landscape metrics of biodiversity potential.
ResultsArea-weighted HANPP across our study region averaged 45% of NPP, down to 4.9% in forest-dominated counties. Greater HANPP correlated with reduced landscape diversity (p?<?0.001, r2?=?0.28) and reduced local habitat connectedness (p?<?0.001, r2?=?0.36).
ConclusionHANPP could be used as an additional tool for conservation professionals during regional-scale land use planning or conservation decision-making, particularly in mixed-use landscapes that both support important biodiversity and have high levels of primary production harvest.
相似文献Functional connectivity of semiaquatic species is poorly studied despite that freshwater ecosystems are amongst the most threatened worldwide due to habitat deterioration. The Neotropical otter, Lontra longicaudis, is a threatened species that represents a good model to evaluate the effect of landscape-riverscape features on genetic structure and gene flow of freshwater species.
ObjectivesWe aimed to assess the spatial genetic structure of L. longicaudis and to evaluate the landscape-riverscape attributes that shape its genetic structure and gene flow at local sites (habitat patches) and between sites (landscape matrix).
MethodsWe conducted the study in three basins located in Veracruz, Mexico, which have a high degree of ecosystem deterioration. We used a non-invasive genetic sampling and a landscape genetics individual-based approach to test the effect stream hierarchical structure, isolation-by-distance, and isolation-by-resistance on genetic structure and gene flow.
ResultsWe found genetic structure that corresponded to the latitudinal and altitudinal heterogeneity of the landscape and riverscape, as well as to the hierarchical structure of the streams. Open areas and steep slopes were the variables affecting genetic structure at local sites, whereas areas with suitable habitat conditions, higher ecosystem integrity and larger streams enhanced gene flow between sites.
ConclusionsThe landscape-riverscape characteristics that maintain functional connectivity of L. longicaudis differed between the upper, middle, and lower basins. Our results have important implications for the conservation of the species, including the maintenance of larger suitable areas in Actopan and the necessity to improve connectivity in Jamapa, through the establishment of biological corridors.
相似文献Climate change has imposed tremendous impacts on ecosystem services. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts mainly focused on a basin or larger scale, or used limited time periods that largely ignore observations of long-term trends at a fine resolution, thereby affecting the recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services.
ObjectivesThis study conducts a detailed and spatially explicit recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services and provides an intuitive map for decision-making and climate change adaptation planning.
MethodsWe used long-term time series of ecosystem service assessments and various future climate scenarios to quantify the sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.
ResultsCarbon sequestration (CS) and habitat quality experience significant growth, while water retention did not show any trend. Sensitivity patterns of these ecosystem services vary largely. For CS, more than half of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, even though the degree of sensitivity is not high. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes, and high levels of future climate change increase the intensity of exposure.
ConclusionsThis study illustrates the complex spatial association between ecosystem services and climatic drivers, and these findings can help optimize local response strategies in the context of global warming. For example, the existing protected areas have notable conservation gaps for disturbance of future climate change on ecosystem services, especially in the southeastern part of the study area.
相似文献The downlisting of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) from Endangered to Vulnerable in IUCN Red List confirms the effectiveness of current conservation practices. However, future survival of giant panda is still in jeopardy due to habitat fragmentation and climate change. Maintaining movement corridors between habitat patches in the newly established Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) is the key for the long-term sustainability of the species.
ObjectivesWe evaluated the impacts of conversion from natural forest to plantation on giant panda habitat connectivity, which is permitted within collective forests and encouraged by the policies for the economic benefits of local communities. We modeled distribution of giant panda habitat in Minshan Mountains which harbors its largest population, and delineated movement corridors between core habitat patches under management scenarios of different forest conversion proportions.
MethodsWe applied an integrated species distribution model based on inhomogeneous Poisson point process to combine presence-only data and site occupancy data, and least-cost models to identify potential movement corridors between core habitat patches.
ResultsWe found that current distribution of plantation has not damaged connectivity between core habitat patches of giant panda. However, it could be severely degraded if mass conversion occurred. Since the GPNP incorporates all the core habitats identified from our model, controlling natural forest conversion inside GPNP would maintain the movement corridors for giant panda.
ConclusionsWe recommend no expansion of plantations inside the GPNP, and improving collective forest management for expansion of ecological forest in adjoining habitat patches.
相似文献Worldwide, anthropogenic habitat loss and degradation have led to substantial biodiversity declines. Preserving biodiversity requires an understanding of how habitat loss and degradation interact to impact species populations, and how land-use decisions can limit these losses.
ObjectivesWe present a mathematical partitioning of changes in landscape-level population abundance in response to land-use change using a modified version of the Price equation from evolutionary biology.
MethodsThe Price equation partitions changes in species abundance into multiple drivers related to habitat loss, habitat degradation, and their interaction. We describe its development and exemplify its applicability using simulated data.
ResultsApplying the Price equation to simulated data reveals the roles of habitat loss, habitat degradation, and their interaction in driving population change in patchy landscapes undergoing complex land-use change processes.
ConclusionsThe Price equation is a theoretical tool that may enhance our understanding of the effects of land-use change on populations by accounting for the specific processes by which land-use change operates across landscapes.
相似文献Graph-theoretic evaluations of habitat connectivity often rely upon least-cost path analyses to evaluate connectedness of habitat patches, based on an underlying cost surface. We present two improvements upon these methods.
ObjectivesAs a case study to test these methods, we evaluated habitat connectivity for the endangered San Martin titi monkey (Plecturocebus oenanthe) in north-central Peru, to prioritize habitat patches for conservation.
MethodsFirst, rather than using a single least-cost path between habitat patches, we analyzed multigraphs made up of multiple low-cost paths. This allows us to differentiate between patches connected through a single narrow corridor, and patches connected by a wide swath of traversable land. We evaluate potential movement pathways by iteratively removing paths and recomputing connectivity metrics. Second, instead of performing a sensitivity analysis by varying costs uniformly across the landscape, we generated landscapes with spatially varying costs.
ResultsThis approach produced a more informative assessment of connectivity than standard graph analyses. Of the 4340 habitat patches considered across the landscape, we identified the most important 100, those frequently ranked highly through repeated network modifications, for multiple metrics and cost surfaces.
ConclusionsThese methods represent a novel approach for assessing connectivity, better accounting for spatial configurations of habitat patches and uncertainty in cost surfaces. The ability to identify habitat patches with more possible routes to other patches is of interest for resiliency planning and prioritization in the face of continued habitat loss and climate change. These methods should be broadly applicable to conservation planning for other wildlife species.
相似文献Habitat edges are integral features of conservation corridors and can influence corridor function and effectiveness. Edge orientation is linked to corridor design and can shape edge responses by changing habitat conditions along edges as well as contrast between conserved habitats and transformed areas.
ObjectivesWe assess whether corridor orientation affects butterfly assemblages in conservation corridors. To do this, we investigate how edge orientation influences butterfly diversity and abundance along forestry plantation edges, and compare this to another important design variable, corridor width.
MethodsButterflies were recorded along the sunny austral north- and shady austral south-orientated edges in grassland conservation corridors that dissect forestry plantations, as well as corridor interior sites. Species richness, abundance and similarity to interior sites were modelled using local habitat variables (ambient temperature, floral resources, and time of day), as well as corridor design variables (corridor width, orientation and an estimate of edge contrast influenced by orientation).
ResultsBoth edge orientation and corridor width were important for butterfly diversity along corridor edges. Wider corridors enhanced overall species richness and promoted similarity between edge and interior habitats. Concurrently, grassland specialist species preferred the sunnier edges (i.e., north facing in the southern hemisphere) while forest- specialists showed a preference for the shadier edges (south facing edges). Edge orientation influenced resident butterflies more strongly than transient butterflies and influenced specialists more strongly than generalists.
ConclusionsCorridor orientation and width are complementary design variables for butterfly conservation. Wide corridors at a variety of orientations benefit different subsets of the butterfly assemblage, and the whole corridor (including both edges) is important to consider in conservation planning to capture all biodiversity.
相似文献Modifications in natural landcover generally result in a loss of habitat availability for wildlife and it’s persistence will depend largely on their spatial configuration and functional connections. Argenteohyla siemersi is a threatened and endemic amphibian whose habitat is composed of forest patches near rivers and water bodies edges.
ObjectivesThis study aimed to analyse the accessible habitat for this species and identify key elements to maintain its ecological network in two different types of land uses: an anthropized area with extensive cattle raising and a protected area.
MethodsThe structural and functional characteristics of both landscapes were analyzed. The connectivity at landscape level and the contribution of each habitat patch were evaluated through simulation models with different dispersion distances in the context of the graph theory.
ResultsIn both landscapes, nine types of landcover were identified with different compositions. Remarkable differences were found in habitat connectivity for this amphibian species between both landscapes. As the percentage of dispersion distance increases, reachable habitat increases as well, although with higher percentages in the protected area. Two corridors were identified in the protected landscape and one in the rangeland one; patches and key links constituted all of them.
ConclusionsThe present work provides spatially explicit results with a quantitative basis. It could be useful as a tool for the development of management plans aimed at guaranteeing the functionality of the ecological network for this endangered species and, therefore, contribute to its long-term conservation.
相似文献Management actions and land-use change can disrupt interdependent population processes, re-define population networks, and change source-sink dynamics. Yet we know little about the types of changes that can de-stabilize source-sink dynamics and how such changes could affect management decisions.
ObjectivesWe examined the degree to which source-sink status and strength could change under a range of management actions and land-use change scenarios including different patterns and extents of habitat loss, restoration, demographic improvements from parasitism control, and increased frequencies inter-population movement.
MethodsWe developed an empirically-rich, spatially explicit, individual-based model for the formerly endangered Black-capped vireo in Texas. We simulated the network-wide consequences of different kinds of changes and compared the resulting source-sink strength, status, and regional abundance across scenarios. We gauged source-sink stability by the degree to which system changes caused the reversal of source or sink status.
ResultsThe stability of source-sink characterizations differed with the type of change. Source-sink dynamics were less responsive to small changes to population structure and changes that minimally affected demographic conditions. Source-sink status was most responsive to changes that affected habitat patterns and quality.
ConclusionsAccurately classifying sources and sinks is challenging, particularly in variable and directionally changing systems. The stability of source-sink classifications depends on the type of management or land-use change. Management actions may need to weigh interventions that improve regional abundance against those that alter regional source-sink dynamics as abundance and source-sink states can be sensitive to different kinds of change.
相似文献Patch-based population models predominately focus on factors that affect regional processes namely, patch size and connectivity, as the primary drivers explaining patch occupancy. This trend persists despite the recognition that patch quality can strongly influence population demography at the local scale. The quality of patches is often temporally variable and influenced by abiotic conditions. However, few studies have explicitly investigated how climatic variables influence the spatial and temporal dynamics of spatially-structured populations either directly or indirectly through changes in patch quality.
ObjectivesUsing a 10-year census of a spatially-structured population of an outbreaking caterpillar, we determined the relative importance of patch quality (determined demographically), connectivity, precipitation, and their interactive effects on patch abundance, occupancy, colonization, and extinction.
MethodsWe generated a series of statistical models and performed comparisons using Akaike’s information criterion. We subsequently used likelihood ratio tests to determine the influence of each parameter on model fit.
ResultsPatch quality and precipitation were the strongest predictors of the observed dynamics. We found that the dynamics of the spatially-structured population of Arctia virginalis were strongly influenced by precipitation: all patches had a higher probability of occupancy, contained higher abundances of caterpillars, and experienced fewer extinctions following wet winters compared to years following droughts.
ConclusionThese findings suggest that precipitation may act to influence the strength of heterogeneity of patch quality. This work demonstrates that patch-based models that do not include local and climatic factors may produce poor predictions under future climatic regimes.
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