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1.
本研究采用供需计算公式分析日喀则地区牧草供给量和需求量，用供需差值计算法计算牧草供给缺口，同时据此预测未来10年日喀则地区的牧草需求量及缺口，以期为促进该地区牧草产业发展提出建议。结果表明：2000-2019年，日喀则地区牧草供不应求，缺口较大，最大为222.87万t，最小为132.88万t。未来10年的牧草需求和缺口预测数据表明：日喀则牧草需求量维持在300~400万t之间，缺口虽呈逐年减小的趋势，但数值依然较大。因此，本研究从自然环境、制度政策、经济发展三个方面提出建议，为解决牧草供需矛盾提供有效依据。 相似文献
2.
为探究南方地区粮食短缺的原因,以西南岩溶山地灌丛草业生态经济区、东南常绿阔叶林-丘陵灌丛草业生态经济区为研究对象,分析南方地区粮食的供给和需求状况。结果表明,从2000年至2009年10年间,我国南方地区的粮食产量基本稳定在22000万t左右,口粮消费量逐年下降,从2000年的13850万t减少到2009年的10677万t,因此口粮需求不是导致南方地区粮食供不应求的原因。2009年,南方地区饲料用粮7991.6万t,占南方地区粮食总产量的33.9%;工业用粮6234.1万t,占粮食总产量的26.8%。口粮、饲料用粮和工业用粮构成了南方地区粮食总需求的三大部分,其中非食用粮约占据粮食总需求的57.3%,是影响粮食安全的主要因素。2009年粮食供需差额至少为1419.3万t,这意味着2009年北方地区向南方地区至少调运了1419.3万t粮食,存在巨大的运输成本和机会成本,同时浪费了283.9万m3的虚拟水资源。而以“大粮食,大资源,集约型”为理念的草地农业可充分利用生态资源和土地资源,节约饲料用粮、补充口粮,降低粮食需求的同时增加粮食供给,且南方地区光照差、多山地,有发展草地农业的比较优势,因此,在南方地区发展适宜的草地农业模式是解决南方地区粮食短缺问题的合理途径。 相似文献
3.
中国奶业步入高质量发展阶段,在市场的推动和奶业振兴政策引导下,2021年,我国奶类产量、各类乳制品进口量、乳品工业总产量分别为3 777 万t、390 万t（不含酪蛋白,折合原料奶计约2 231 万t）、3 032 万t,同比分别增加7.0%、18.8%、9.4%,国内生产、加工、进口“三量齐增”,一致反映出国内奶类消费需求旺盛。近年来,我国奶类消费量保持增长,消费结构逐渐优化,随着消费者对营养健康关注度不断提高,对奶类有利于提高免疫力观点的认可度增强,预计2022年奶类消费仍将保持一定比例的刚性增长,需求增速有所回落,全年奶类消费量将增至6 311 万t,增幅约5.0%,人均奶类消费量44.7 kg。 相似文献
4.
奶业是非洲居民重要的收入和就业来源,是重要的农业产业。2018年,非洲奶业生产总值171.22 亿美元,占畜牧业总产值的24.0%;奶牛存栏6 752.49 万头,主要集中在东非、北非和西非地区,养殖方式以散养为主,平均存栏仅3 头,部分品种仍以役用为主,牛奶生产仅是副产品,平均单产512.8 kg/头·年,年生鲜乳产量3 462.85 万t;埃及、肯尼亚和南非是主要的乳制品加工国家,加工量占非洲生鲜乳产量的近30%;2019年乳制品消费量折合生鲜乳为5 468.21 万t,鲜奶是最主要的消费品类,占60%以上,其次是奶粉和奶酪,分别占消费量（折合生鲜乳）的16%和15%,人均消费量有所下降,2019年为41.74 kg/人·年;乳制品贸易长期处于净进口趋势,2018年进口量198.72 万t,进口额48.57 亿美元,北非、西非和东非是主要进口地区。非洲奶牛养殖提升空间巨大,乳制品加工前景广阔,乳制品消费增长空间巨大,中国进一步加强与非洲奶业在奶牛养殖、乳制品加工以及奶业贸易等方面的国际合作,推动奶业走出去。 相似文献
5.
非洲猪瘟疫情对中国生猪产业可能产生巨大且长期的影响。一方面因为生猪饲养量大幅度减少,造成供给不足;另一方面,尽管猪肉消费在短期受到了一定程度的抑制,但由于消费偏好无法短期内改变,猪肉“刚需”仍然存在。预计2019年中国猪肉供需缺口将在1000万t左右,全年猪价将呈现“先抑后扬”态势,生猪价格将可能在近两年内都处在较高水平。猪价上升可能通过产业链波及至食品全行业,导致物价水平整体上涨。建议加大生猪生产扶持力度,调动生猪养殖积极性;明确政府管理权责,确保猪肉稳定供应;遵从产消对接、区域互补原则,以农牧结合为前提,构建生猪生产消费均衡区域布局。 相似文献
6.
In this paper we evaluated the distributional effects on actors in the milk market of a hypothetical programme to eradicate bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) from the Scottish dairy herd. With this in mind, we applied an economic welfare methodology which utilizes data on price, on output quantity, on elasticities of supply and demand and on simulated cost and yield effects of an eradication programme. Our analysis is based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation of BVD spread in the dairy herd. We found that consequent upon the eradication of the disease milk yield per cow increased for all herd sizes in Scotland whereas milk price received by farmers fell. Consequently, milk consumers gained around pound11 million in discounted economic surplus and producers with infected herds gained around pound39 million whereas producers with un-infected herds lost around pound2 million in discounted surplus. On balance, however, the eradication programme generated around pound 47 million in discounted economic gain for Scotland. We found that the results are sensitive to changes in yield gains made by owners of the infected herd. 相似文献
7.
岩溶地区农业的出路在草地畜牧业(演讲提纲) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
农业是历史最久、影响最广的环境因素.以籽粒为主要生产对象的耕地农业,必然过度开荒种地,导致水土流失严重,土地资源遭受严重破坏,农业效益低下.这是中国农村贫困的基本根源.世界面临人口、资源和环境的挑战,农业不可避免地要承担重要部分.其核心问题是食物的消费和生产失调.我国食物安全的真正压力来自饲料.以食物当量来计算为"2 5"模式.即人用口粮为2亿t/年,饲料用5亿t/年.要满足5亿t饲料的食物当量,必须走出耕地农业的阴影,施行草地农业.岩溶地区生产耔实日照尤其不足.草地农业在保证环境安全的前提下,可以利用的土地资源比耕地农业多3～4倍;可利用的生物气候资源、生物资源多许多倍,农业收入也成倍增加. 相似文献
8.
近年来,世界山羊养殖数量持续增长,据联合国粮农组织(FAO)统计显示,2018年全球山羊养殖数量已超10.4亿只,其中奶山羊养殖数量超2.16亿只,约有90%以上的奶山羊和山羊奶产自亚洲和非洲。欧洲的奶山羊存栏和产奶量均在亚洲和非洲之后,但其单产水平远高于其他各大洲,在世界奶山羊每只平均年产奶量100 kg以上的国家中,前十位均为欧洲国家。我国奶山羊产业发展迅速,2018年我国奶山羊实际存栏约518万只,年产羊奶量约100万t,约占全国鲜奶产量的3.3%。本文对全球及我国奶山羊产业进行了纵向和横向比较,客观分析我国奶山羊产业的地位、发展现状以及未来发展趋势,旨在为我国奶山羊产业的发展提供参考。 相似文献
9.
秸秆饲料化利用对于促进“粮改饲”推动草食畜牧业发展，实现藏粮于草解决人畜争地以及构建大食物安全观具有重要的战略意义。本研究运用草谷比法与能量转化理论估算安定区农作物秸秆资源量和秸秆饲料化节粮潜力。在此基础上，设计种植结构调整(A)和秸秆饲料化利用率提升(B)两种情景8种方案，对草食畜牧业发展潜力及经济效益进行估算。结果表明：1) 2000 – 2018年，甘肃省定西市安定区大宗作物小麦(Triticum aestivum)、玉米(Zea mays)、马铃薯(Solanum tuberosum)秸秆资源总量为487.03 × 104 t；草食家畜存栏量为1 132.61 × 104 AUM，秸秆饲料的需求量为744.12 × 104 t，秸秆饲料化量为177.05 × 104 t，秸秆饲料供需缺口巨大。2)小麦、玉米、马铃薯三大作物秸秆节粮潜力分别为28.85 × 104、57.21 × 104、118.17 × 104 t。3)以2018年实际存栏量14.28 × 104 AUM为基准，对比各情景方案组合，Ah + Bh方案下的秸秆载畜潜力高达28.69 × 104 AUM，经济效益达30 211.37 × 104 CNY，为最优方案；最劣方案Al的载畜发展潜力为4.42 × 104 AUM，经济效益为4 655.03 × 104 CNY，较最优方案相差24.27 × 104 AUM，经济效益相差25 556.34 × 104 CNY。总体而言，A、B组合方案下的载畜潜力和经济效益均高于单一方案的潜力，草畜一体化发展不失为旱作农区可推广的有效发展模式。 相似文献
10.
11.
湖南省畜禽粪污排放量估算与环境效应 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
了解湖南省畜禽粪便及其污染物排泄情况,为畜禽养殖业污染物防控与治理提供依据。本论文以《2011湖南农村统计年鉴》中畜禽出栏数作为统计基数,根据畜禽粪便排放系数和粪污含量,估测了2011年湖南省畜禽粪污排泄情况。结果表明,2011年湖南省畜禽粪便产生总量为6680.29万t,COD 327.49万t,BOD 302.39万t,NH3-N 26.04万t,总磷30.78万t,总氮64.45万t;畜禽粪便中重金属排泄量分别为Zn 3802.54 t,Cu 2772.43 t,Cr 335.67 t,Pb 265.06 t,Cd 51.11 t,Ni 240.60 t,As 47.63 t,Hg 2.16 t;2011年湖南省畜禽粪便发酵生产沼气总量约为572088万m3。畜禽养殖业粪污排泄量巨大,危害之大,应坚持减量化、无害化和资源化三原则,倡导畜牧健康养殖理念。 相似文献
12.
Status and prospects for livestock production in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Wilson RT 《Tropical animal health and production》2007,39(6):443-452
Some 16 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product of the Lao PDR arises from the livestock sector. Almost all output - live animals
and products - is from traditional small scale production and about 90 per cent of all households in the country keep one
or more species of livestock. Industrial or large scale production is of very minor importance even for pigs and poultry.
Considerable international assistance has been provided for livestock development, initially from the Socialist states that
were of the same political persuasion as Lao PDR and more recently from multilateral and bilateral development assistance
agencies. In general this assistance has not conferred lasting benefits on the sector in part due to the failure of the Lao
Government to provide continuing support commensurate with the sector’s contribution to the national economy. Buffalo (1.1
million head in 2004) and cattle (1.3 million head) are the main ruminant species with goats and sheep (140 000 head) occupying
a very minor position. Both pigs (1.7 million) and poultry (19.6 million) are major contributors to the household and national
economies. Buffalo are now mainly meat producers, their former draught and transport roles having been taken over by mechanical
equipment. Cattle, also once used for draught, are almost exclusively producers of beef. Pigs and poultry produce meat and
poultry provide eggs. Lao indigenous livestock are mainly kept in low input systems, thus output is also low. Nothing is known
of the genetic potential of the indigenous stock which are the victims of poor management, inadequate nutrition and minimal
health care. There is strong and rising demand for products of animal origin within the country and in the greater Southeast
Asia and East Asia regions. Given suitable and appropriate support the Lao livestock sector would be in a strong position
to contribute to supplying this demand. 相似文献
13.
2022年,中国牛奶产量为3 932 万吨,同比增长6.8%;乳制品产量为3 118 万吨,同比增长2.0%。原奶产量充足,但生产量明显下降,乳业市场进入到短期的调整阶段。从消费变化来看,消费降级、消费平移、消费升级同时存在,乳品消费出现结构分化;从产品的变化看,低温鲜奶全面进入全方位的竞争阶段,将复刻常温乳品的发展路径;常温奶基础型产品增加较快,但价格竞争激烈;而中高端乳品的降价销售与价格恢复过程,品牌价值的作用明显;随着老龄化社会的到来,成人类奶粉成为市场的热点产品,越来越多的企业加入到这个品类的竞争中来;为挖掘市场新的增长点,乳品的关联类产品受到重视,比如雪糕、奶酒、奶酪等;从渠道变化看,线上渠道受到更多企业的重视,线下渠道也出现了新的业态,这些都推动着乳品企业的渠道变革。 相似文献
14.
多不饱和脂肪酸对鱼饲料转化率的影响及其机理 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
由于过分的海洋捕捞以及对海水鱼消费的增加,导致海水鱼油供不应求,研究使用鱼油替代品发展水产养殖业势在必行。植物油供应稳定,价廉物美,但是它富含多不饱和脂肪酸(PUFAs),却缺乏高度不饱和脂肪酸(HUFAs),尤其缺乏n-3HUFAs。文章结合本研究所多年来对HUFAs的研究成果,重点综述PUFAs特别是n-3HUFAs对鱼饲料转化率的影响及其机理,并探索植物油替代鱼油存在的问题及解决方法,以促进有效利用PUFAs和用植物油替代鱼油养殖海水鱼,发展可持续的海水养殖业。 相似文献
15.
关于中国畜牧生产结构与肉牛经济的几个问题 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
中国畜产品生产指标1999年比1990年高出105.1个大师傅发点，人均高出87.1个百分点，而世界相应指灵敏仅分别高出17.4和3.4个百分点。中国畜牧业产值占大农业总产值已达30%，显示整个畜牧业的高速增长，肉牛生产是畜牧业中的重要组成部分，发展迅速，牛肉总产量占全国总产肉量比例由1982年的1%增长到8.43%，超过了500万t，中国畜种组成中猪，鸡比例大高，在生产结构战略调整中应大力发展养牛业，肉牛数量占总牛头数90%，80%的肉牛分布在农区，中国农区肉牛业将是不同于北美精料型，澳洲草原型的第三种类型，有自己的特点，二十年来，中国牛肉产量年递增率平均达9.1%-24.97%，而世界同期仅为1.02%。按中国情况，2005年，牛肉总产将达到650万t，可超过世界第二大牛肉生产国的巴西；而到2016年，中国牛肉总产可望达1000万t。中国牛肉的基本市场仍在国内，发展肉牛仍是广大农民增收的一个门类。 相似文献
16.
17.
Village poultry consumption and marketing in relation to gender,religious festivals and market access 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Aklilu HA Almekinders CJ Udo HM Van der Zijpp AJ 《Tropical animal health and production》2007,39(3):165-177
This study aimed to examine village poultry consumption and marketing in Ethiopia in relation to gender, socio-cultural events
and market access. The main objects of the research were producers, poultry markets, producer-sellers, and intermediary sellers
in three locations representing different levels of market access in Tigray. About 3000 farm records were collected over a
period of 12 months from 131 producers to obtain quantitative data on sales and consumption. Ninety-three semi-structured
interviews with 58 producer-sellers and 35 intermediaries and 12 group discussions with these market actors were conducted
to explore organization, price dynamics and socio-cultural aspects of poultry marketing. In total, 928 producer-sellers and
225 intermediaries were monitored monthly to examine participation by gender in poultry marketing. Better market access was
associated with a shorter market chain and higher prices for the producers. Female-headed households had smaller poultry sales
and consumption per household but sale and consumption per family member were 25% and 66% higher, respectively, than in male-headed
households. While women dominated in the producer-sellers group, intermediaries were mainly men. Religious festivals periodically
shifted local demand and prices of poultry. To improve the benefit of poultry keeping, poverty-stricken households may profit
from better market access through better market information, infrastructure, market group formation and careful planning to
match the dynamics in demand. 相似文献
18.
《The Journal of Applied Poultry Research》2014,23(1):80-93
In this paper, we estimate the costs and benefits of implementing the proposed National Organic Program for laying hens compared with alternatives. For the regulatory proposals under option 2, the regulatory cost will be zero because most producers are already in compliance with the proposed regulation. The anticipated benefits of this regulation will be zero as well, because the current market prices already reflect consumers’ willingness to pay for the existing animal welfare conditions. For the regulatory proposals under option 3, before market adjustments, the average regulatory burden for the entire organic egg industry will amount to $0.09 per dozen eggs, with extreme variations between $0 for small operations and $2.30 per dozen for large operations. If we rely on the average price of organic eggs, $2.69 per dozen, and assume a maximum estimated benefit associated with improved animal welfare conditions, that consumers would be willing to pay of about 30% above the current market price, the estimated benefit of regulation amounts to $0.81 per dozen eggs. Based on the findings, we conclude that option 2 is welfare neutral and could be easily adopted because it already has been adopted by representative producers. For option 3, the benefit-cost ratio is larger than 1, which indicates that the proposal passes the benefit-cost ratio test. The obtained result, however, has to be interpreted with serious reservation because of the differential effect that the proposed regulation would have on different industry participants. Under option 3, the effect of the proposed changes on small organic egg producers is negligible because most small producers are operating under conditions similar to the proposed living standards. However, costs will increase substantially for large organic egg producers and likely cause a substantial number of producers to exit organic production and switch to conventional production, which would cause a substantial decline in the prices of conventional eggs and organic feed in the short run. 相似文献
19.
Vaccination is an effective strategy used for the protection of food animals against infectious diseases. A 2010 U.S. Department of Agriculture questionnaire examined U.S. catfish industry use (in 2009) of two commercial vaccines that provide protection against enteric septicemia of catfish (ESC) and columnaris disease, catfish producers' opinions regarding the percentage of vaccinated fish they expect to be protected, and producers' general expectations regarding survival of vaccinated fish compared with unvaccinated fish. During 2009, 9.7% of the total fingerling operations used one or both vaccines; 12.3% of the total industry fry production was vaccinated against ESC, and 17.0% was vaccinated against columnaris disease. Of the producers who grew food-sized catfish to harvest, 6.7% used vaccinated catfish. The farms that did not use vaccinated fish for grow out had a mean size of 63.4 water surface hectares (156.6 water surface acres). The operations that used vaccinated fish were larger (mean size = 206.6 water surface hectares, or 510.6 water surface acres). The producers that stocked ESC-vaccinated fish for grow out represented 19.0% of the total water surface area of food fish production; producers that stocked columnaris-vaccinated fish represented 16.6% of the total area. Of the producers that stocked ESC-vaccinated catfish, 41.9% thought that survival was better in vaccinated fish than in unvaccinated fish; of the producers that stocked columnaris-vaccinated catfish, 46.2% thought that vaccinated fish displayed better survival. However, 37.5% of producers that used the ESC vaccine and 39.7% of producers that used the columnaris vaccine did not know whether vaccination improved survival rates. When all producers were asked about their expectations regarding the percentage of vaccinated fish that would be protected from disease, 52.4% responded that they expected 100% of their fish to be protected. More producer information about reasonable expectations regarding vaccine efficacy, the conditions under which immunosuppression and vaccine failure can occur, and assessment of vaccine performance may result in increased use of vaccination as a tool for the catfish industry. 相似文献
20.
2019年世界猪肉产量有较大幅度下降,总产为10613万吨,比2018年下降了6.03%,其中世界最大猪肉生产国中国的产量下降幅度巨大,下降幅度为13.95%。长期以来中国的生猪生产与消费占据着世界的半壁江山,2019年受到非洲猪瘟疫情的影响,中国生猪产量大幅度下降,猪肉进口大幅度上升,导致了世界整体猪肉产量的下滑以及猪肉贸易量的大幅度上升。2020年中国猪肉产能下滑趋势将得到缓解,但是供给紧缺、进口增加的态势将持续,将对世界猪肉生产以及贸易格局带来巨大影响。世界第二、第三大猪肉进口国日本与墨西哥的猪肉生产稳定,猪肉价格平稳上升,猪肉进口量2019年也有一定增长。随着中国的猪肉进口需求量增加,预计2020年全球猪肉贸易量会有一定上升,美国、欧盟等主要猪肉出口国的猪肉产量将有一定增长,下面详细考察2019年世界生猪产业的发展情况并对2020年的走势做出初步判断。 相似文献